NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	92		Excitement	9.8 [72]		MVP	Al Horford (ATL): +46.9%
Atlanta Hawks	93		Comeback	9.3 [198]		LVP	Jeff Teague (ATL): -30.7%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
John Lucas III	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.01,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.14,0.11,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.09	0.05	0.04	-0.00	16	59%	0.14	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
DeMar DeRozan	0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.15,0.12,0.1,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.09,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.06,0.15,0.15,0.03	0.08	-0.05	-0.01	16	61%	0.08	2	-0.04	6	83%	0.01
Quincy Acy	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Gray	-0.04	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	0.02	8	50%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Alan Anderson	-0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,0.13,-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	-0.00	12	47%	0.04	4	-0.12	8	87%	0.06
Landry Fields	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.04	-0.08	0.00	5	25%	-0.13	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Terrence Ross	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.08	-0.07	-0.00	4	20%	-0.04	2	-0.11	2	100%	0.01
Kyle Lowry	-0.18	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.1,-0.01,-0.18	0.00	-0.17	0.01	11	58%	-0.10	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Amir Johnson	-0.19	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.14	-0.06	-0.01	12	22%	-0.14	2	-0.05	3	0%	-0.06

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Al Horford	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.18,0.18,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.47	0.47	0.12	0.35	0.00	15	65%	0.47	0	0.00	4	50%	0.02
Kyle Korver	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.06,0.06,0.26,0.26	0.26	0.14	0.12	0.00	10	85%	0.28	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
John Jenkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.01	-0.00	5	45%	0.01	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Ivan Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	6	46%	0.03	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.01
DeShawn Stevenson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	4	60%	0.04	2	-0.06	2	0%	-0.05
Jannero Pargo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Devin Harris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.03	-0.04	0.01	7	53%	0.01	3	-0.09	1	100%	0.00
Josh Smith	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.13,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,0.03,0.03,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.03	-0.10	0.02	16	51%	0.06	4	-0.21	7	71%	0.00
Jeff Teague	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.08,-0.08,-0.24,-0.31	-0.31	-0.13	-0.18	-0.01	11	37%	-0.00	5	-0.30	2	100%	0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.2	2.3	29.3	15.8	24.7	2.5	35.5	134.3
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +107.5%

TOR -3.5%

TOR -27.9%

TOR -24.8%

TOR -1.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	ATL	NBA	TOR	ATL	NBA
this game	16.6	13.4	15.4	95.8	96.9	104.1
season	16.1	15.1		104.4	102.6
opponent	15.5	15.3		102.8	105.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	14.0	15.3	18.8	18.8	16.6
ATL	14.2	13.5	12.0	14.0	13.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Terrence Ross	43	42	0.31	-0.81	1.12	0.02	10	-11	21	16.4	16.7	-0.32	13.0	13.7	-0.67
Landry Fields	29	29	0.14	-0.64	0.78	0.05	3	-4	7	17.4	16.2	1.25	13.7	13.3	0.38
Quincy Acy	15	16	0.08	-0.58	0.65	-0.01	3	-4	7	11.7	17.5	-5.74	15.2	13.1	2.11
John Lucas III	45	46	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	-0.34	4	-5	9	18.2	15.1	3.10	13.5	13.3	0.22
Amir Johnson	77	78	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.51	1	-2	3	16.8	15.5	1.30	14.0	10.9	3.12
Aaron Gray	70	68	-0.49	-0.00	-0.49	-0.17	-11	10	-21	17.1	15.2	1.84	12.7	15.1	-2.42
Kyle Lowry	60	61	-0.59	0.09	-0.68	-0.48	-4	3	-7	15.8	17.9	-2.15	13.4	13.5	-0.14
Alan Anderson	69	69	-0.60	0.10	-0.69	-0.36	-8	7	-15	16.7	16.4	0.28	13.6	13.0	0.65
DeMar DeRozan	72	71	-0.64	0.14	-0.77	-0.55	-3	2	-5	16.1	17.9	-1.74	13.0	14.7	-1.75

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
DeShawn Stevenson	35	33	0.78	-0.28	1.05	0.72	2	-1	3	13.8	13.2	0.54	18.1	15.8	2.31
Josh Smith	79	79	0.70	-0.20	0.91	0.47	8	-7	15	12.9	16.0	-3.13	16.3	18.0	-1.73
Jeff Teague	79	80	0.67	-0.17	0.83	0.49	6	-5	11	12.9	16.0	-3.13	16.8	15.6	1.14
Kyle Korver	72	74	0.66	-0.16	0.82	0.42	8	-7	15	13.1	14.5	-1.43	16.8	15.7	1.16
Al Horford	87	87	0.46	0.04	0.41	0.40	2	-1	3	13.7	10.3	3.41	16.9	13.9	2.96
Jannero Pargo	10	9	-0.09	0.59	-0.69	0.02	-4	5	-9	12.2	13.6	-1.37	19.2	16.3	2.92
John Jenkins	27	26	-0.11	0.61	-0.71	0.04	-5	6	-11	15.4	12.6	2.81	13.2	17.8	-4.58
Ivan Johnson	26	26	-0.16	0.66	-0.82	0.07	-8	9	-17	14.0	13.2	0.84	16.6	16.6	0.01
Devin Harris	65	66	-0.40	0.90	-1.30	-0.28	-4	5	-9	13.7	12.9	0.73	16.2	17.3	-1.06

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.53,0.46,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.42,0.43,0.42,0.46,0.4,0.48,0.44,0.48,0.44,0.46,0.39,0.42,0.27,0.22,0.26,0.34,0.39,0.39,0.42,0.52,0.38,0.44,0.56,0.7,0.64,0.74,0.7,0.67,0.56,0.73,0.64,0.46,0.46,0.53,0.54,0.23,0.16,1
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 87, ATL 91	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.42,0.38,0.39,0.43,0.39,0.45,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.53,0.47,0.53,0.41,0.37,0.39,0.34,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.33,0.32,0.34,0.3,0.39,0.39,0.42,0.48,0.56,0.63,0.63,0.6,0.62,0.7,0.62,0.63,0.68,0.59,0.4,0.23,0.38,0.54,0.23,0.09,1	91.7%
POR 91, MIN 96	0.5,0.49,0.56,0.58,0.6,0.59,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.39,0.4,0.38,0.35,0.32,0.32,0.36,0.35,0.42,0.47,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.41,0.43,0.37,0.43,0.49,0.36,0.39,0.42,0.52,0.59,0.48,0.56,0.6,0.75,0.81,0.7,0.79,0.76,0.63,0.69,0.54,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.31,0.42,1	90.4%
DAL 96, DEN 98	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.57,0.53,0.51,0.48,0.43,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.51,0.49,0.42,0.4,0.42,0.32,0.29,0.27,0.31,0.3,0.33,0.25,0.37,0.37,0.45,0.58,0.61,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.6,0.75,0.58,0.62,0.62,0.71,0.68,0.53,0.54,0.46,0.55,0.63,0.45,0.42,1	89.9%