NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Indiana Pacers	101		Excitement	8.7 [161]		MVP	Andre Iguodala (DEN): +24.2%
Denver Nuggets	102		Comeback	2.2 [724]		LVP	Roy Hibbert (IND): -29.0%

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
David West	0.10	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.1	0.01	0.12	0.02	15	53%	0.16	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.00
Lance Stephenson	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.10	0.01	0.03	13	71%	0.12	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Paul George	0.06	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.29,0.29,0.18,0.06	0.10	-0.05	-0.01	17	66%	0.25	3	-0.19	1	100%	0.01
Orlando Johnson	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.05	0.01	-0.00	5	80%	0.08	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tyler Hansbrough	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	2	50%	0.01	1	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
D.J. Augustin	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	4	40%	-0.02	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.02
Ian Mahinmi	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.03	-0.00	5	43%	-0.01	2	-0.07	4	50%	-0.03
George Hill	-0.16	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.16,-0.05,-0.16	-0.04	-0.12	0.01	12	46%	0.00	3	-0.17	2	50%	-0.08
Roy Hibbert	-0.29	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.21,-0.29,-0.29,-0.29	-0.12	-0.14	0.02	12	31%	-0.21	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.01

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Andre Iguodala	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.2,-0.2,0.24	0.24	-0.05	0.30	0.01	11	41%	0.27	1	-0.02	10	50%	-0.21
Danilo Gallinari	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.28,0.28,0.27,0.29,0.29,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.2,0.21	0.21	0.19	0.04	0.02	16	69%	0.21	0	0.00	7	86%	0.07
Corey Brewer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.09	-0.01	-0.00	11	62%	0.08	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Kenneth Faried	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.01	0.00	2	100%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kosta Koufos	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	0.01	8	50%	0.01	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Timofey Mozgov	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	7	62%	0.07	4	-0.11	2	100%	0.02
Andre Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.06	-0.01	-0.03	3	71%	0.04	5	-0.08	1	100%	0.00
Anthony Randolph	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	3	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ty Lawson	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	0.01	17	47%	-0.01	3	-0.07	4	75%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.4	1.8	29.5	15.8	23.3	2.4	39.1	135.2
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

IND -16.4%

DEN +46.3%

IND -14.5%

DEN +31.4%

DEN +3.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	IND	DEN	NBA	IND	DEN	NBA
this game	16.9	13.4	15.4	107.4	105.2	104.1
season	16.1	14.4		102.4	108.4
opponent	15.4	15.5		104.0	99.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
IND	16.2	15.3	20.6	16.0	16.9
DEN	13.2	12.4	14.7	13.4	13.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tyler Hansbrough	26	27	0.06	-0.56	0.63	-0.02	3	-4	7	16.5	17.0	-0.54	13.3	13.4	-0.04
Orlando Johnson	21	23	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	0.03	-2	1	-3	15.5	17.2	-1.77	12.7	13.6	-0.87
Ian Mahinmi	30	32	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.06	-3	2	-5	16.4	17.0	-0.61	12.9	13.6	-0.73
D.J. Augustin	25	26	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	-0.09	-4	3	-7	16.4	17.0	-0.61	13.5	13.3	0.19
Roy Hibbert	64	65	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.41	2	-3	5	17.0	16.4	0.61	13.6	12.9	0.73
George Hill	75	78	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.45	2	-3	5	17.3	15.2	2.12	13.5	12.7	0.78
Paul George	85	88	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.54	4	-5	9	17.1	14.7	2.42	13.7	9.9	3.83
Lance Stephenson	76	76	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	-0.37	-3	2	-5	16.7	17.5	-0.80	12.9	14.9	-1.91
David West	68	70	-0.56	0.06	-0.63	-0.45	-4	3	-7	17.0	16.5	0.54	13.4	13.3	0.04

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Andre Miller	36	33	0.69	-0.18	0.87	0.54	5	-4	9	13.0	13.6	-0.62	16.3	17.1	-0.84
Danilo Gallinari	75	75	0.46	0.04	0.43	0.35	4	-3	7	13.0	14.5	-1.53	16.8	17.1	-0.25
Ty Lawson	82	80	0.42	0.08	0.33	0.42	0	1	-1	13.4	13.4	-0.05	17.0	16.2	0.75
Andre Iguodala	75	73	0.41	0.09	0.33	0.47	-2	3	-5	13.5	12.8	0.76	17.2	15.7	1.46
Timofey Mozgov	54	50	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.19	7	-6	13	12.9	14.0	-1.11	15.9	17.9	-1.95
Kosta Koufos	72	69	0.35	0.15	0.19	0.40	-2	3	-5	13.7	12.2	1.51	17.0	16.4	0.56
Kenneth Faried	20	22	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.00	7	-6	13	14.7	13.0	1.75	21.5	15.4	6.01
Anthony Randolph	10	9	-0.13	0.63	-0.76	0.11	-8	9	-17	14.1	13.3	0.82	13.9	17.2	-3.28
Corey Brewer	61	59	-0.30	0.80	-1.09	-0.12	-6	7	-13	13.2	13.6	-0.40	16.0	18.3	-2.29

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.46,0.51,0.39,0.34,0.39,0.42,0.4,0.37,0.36,0.34,0.36,0.38,0.39,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.58,0.59,0.51,0.58,0.6,0.61,0.55,0.67,0.61,0.71,0.72,0.73,0.74,0.82,0.81,0.78,0.9,0.89,0.93,0.97,0.96,0.97,0.9,0.72,0.67,0.58,1
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 90, NYK 91	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.46,0.35,0.34,0.34,0.32,0.32,0.36,0.4,0.39,0.39,0.42,0.34,0.42,0.44,0.59,0.54,0.6,0.65,0.61,0.64,0.64,0.7,0.71,0.66,0.72,0.67,0.79,0.81,0.89,0.93,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.86,0.79,0.77,0.85,1	93.5%
ATL 108, LAC 109	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.43,0.46,0.48,0.49,0.41,0.41,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.35,0.36,0.38,0.36,0.35,0.33,0.39,0.44,0.39,0.44,0.46,0.51,0.5,0.43,0.37,0.37,0.52,0.52,0.65,0.68,0.76,0.74,0.7,0.71,0.87,0.79,0.79,0.89,0.95,0.92,0.94,0.95,0.9,0.79,0.77,0.53,1	92.8%
PHI 98, DEN 105	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.51,0.53,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.35,0.38,0.4,0.4,0.35,0.4,0.46,0.41,0.46,0.42,0.41,0.49,0.5,0.54,0.6,0.55,0.61,0.67,0.65,0.71,0.76,0.7,0.71,0.82,0.78,0.81,0.85,0.86,0.91,0.94,0.95,0.91,0.9,0.98,0.78,0.84,1	92.4%