NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	104		Excitement	8.6 [180]		MVP	Brandon Knight (DET): +58.1%
Orlando Magic	102		Comeback	4.0 [261]		LVP	Glen Davis (ORL): -40.6%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brandon Knight	0.58	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.15,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.21,0.19,0.19,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.36,0.58,0.58	0.23	0.37	0.02	16	91%	0.66	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Kyle Singler	0.17	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.09	0.09	0.01	5	83%	0.17	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Greg Monroe	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11	0.05	0.05	-0.00	11	65%	0.17	2	-0.06	4	75%	-0.00
Austin Daye	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.03	0.04	-0.00	6	67%	0.10	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Kim English	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.04	0.02	-0.00	3	75%	0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Charlie Villanueva	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0,0,0	0.03	-0.04	-0.01	12	48%	-0.00	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Jason Maxiell	-0.01	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	5	36%	-0.01	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.02
Andre Drummond	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Will Bynum	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	0.01	7	50%	0.04	2	-0.10	4	75%	0.00
Tayshaun Prince	-0.32	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.17,-0.25,-0.25,-0.32	-0.17	-0.15	-0.00	13	25%	-0.22	3	-0.09	2	50%	-0.01

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
E'Twaun Moore	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,0.1,0.27,0.3,0.3	0.30	0.07	0.23	0.00	14	58%	0.32	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.03
JJ Redick	0,0,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.2,0.17,0.17,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.22,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.24,0.24,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.11,0.04	0.04	0.15	-0.09	0.02	17	79%	0.21	5	-0.17	5	60%	-0.01
Nikola Vucevic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.03	0.01	13	46%	0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jameer Nelson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01	0.01	0.04	-0.03	0.00	14	53%	0.07	2	-0.06	6	83%	-0.01
Maurice Harkless	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.01	0.00	3	33%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gustavo Ayon	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ish Smith	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Arron Afflalo	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	7	29%	-0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Glen Davis	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.15,-0.12,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14,-0.09,-0.05,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.27,-0.41	-0.41	-0.17	-0.25	-0.01	22	37%	-0.14	5	-0.26	2	50%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.0	1.8	30.2	16.3	22.7	2.4	38.6	134.9
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +60.3%

ORL -11.3%

ORL -21.4%

DET +18.9%

DET +3.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	ORL	NBA	DET	ORL	NBA
this game	15.3	15.8	15.4	113.0	109.7	104.1
season	15.7	15.5		102.3	100.3
opponent	15.3	15.5		107.7	106.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	13.8	13.2	18.9	16.0	15.3
ORL	18.3	14.5	16.2	14.7	15.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Will Bynum	41	42	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.38	8	-6	14	14.5	16.0	-1.52	14.9	16.6	-1.64
Charlie Villanueva	49	50	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.39	5	-3	8	15.1	15.5	-0.39	14.2	17.7	-3.52
Greg Monroe	62	62	0.48	0.02	0.45	0.54	-2	4	-6	15.7	14.4	1.29	16.6	14.3	2.26
Brandon Knight	68	69	0.36	0.14	0.21	0.50	-5	7	-12	16.0	13.4	2.61	16.1	15.2	0.89
Tayshaun Prince	65	64	0.30	0.20	0.11	0.54	-8	10	-18	16.1	13.4	2.63	16.0	15.4	0.60
Kyle Singler	40	40	0.29	0.21	0.09	-0.12	14	-12	26	13.0	17.1	-4.12	17.2	14.8	2.50
Austin Daye	33	34	0.18	0.32	-0.14	-0.03	7	-5	12	14.1	16.0	-1.89	14.1	16.8	-2.79
Jason Maxiell	36	36	0.03	0.47	-0.44	-0.06	3	-1	4	16.2	14.7	1.46	18.2	14.4	3.82
Andre Drummond	33	34	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	-0.02	-1	3	-4	14.5	15.8	-1.28	14.6	16.5	-1.91
Kim English	33	34	-0.25	0.75	-1.00	0.07	-11	13	-24	16.8	14.5	2.31	16.0	15.7	0.22

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Maurice Harkless	29	27	0.12	-0.62	0.75	0.07	2	-4	6	13.7	16.8	-3.16	14.0	15.8	-1.85
Gustavo Ayon	25	23	0.06	-0.56	0.62	0.03	1	-3	4	15.2	16.1	-0.86	14.6	15.6	-0.99
Ish Smith	8	8	0.04	-0.54	0.58	0.01	1	-3	4	12.7	16.1	-3.37	16.6	15.2	1.45
Arron Afflalo	46	48	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.06	-3	1	-4	17.7	14.0	3.65	15.8	14.8	1.02
E'Twaun Moore	59	56	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.47	4	-6	10	14.5	18.1	-3.66	15.8	14.6	1.23
JJ Redick	77	77	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.45	0	-2	2	15.9	15.7	0.17	15.1	16.3	-1.23
Glen Davis	75	74	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.37	-4	2	-6	16.2	14.2	2.06	15.3	15.4	-0.17
Nikola Vucevic	76	76	-0.58	0.08	-0.66	-0.46	-4	2	-6	16.0	14.9	1.09	15.5	14.4	1.05
Jameer Nelson	70	71	-0.70	0.20	-0.91	-0.50	-7	5	-12	16.5	13.7	2.89	15.2	15.5	-0.28

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.47,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.36,0.36,0.4,0.47,0.51,0.47,0.44,0.35,0.3,0.19,0.23,0.25,0.28,0.25,0.22,0.19,0.21,0.22,0.22,0.29,0.35,0.38,0.31,0.41,0.37,0.44,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.53,0.47,0.3,0.17,0.14,0.45,0.57,0.16,0
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 91, LAC 89	0.5,0.51,0.57,0.57,0.55,0.61,0.56,0.51,0.45,0.41,0.35,0.36,0.36,0.34,0.34,0.32,0.36,0.33,0.2,0.25,0.23,0.22,0.24,0.23,0.18,0.16,0.21,0.16,0.2,0.22,0.3,0.29,0.29,0.28,0.27,0.44,0.48,0.46,0.52,0.47,0.48,0.46,0.41,0.29,0.17,0.1,0.29,0.45,0.27,0	92.8%
BKN 88, NYK 85	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.54,0.52,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.4,0.42,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.47,0.4,0.35,0.35,0.36,0.36,0.31,0.25,0.27,0.33,0.29,0.28,0.27,0.35,0.36,0.35,0.32,0.38,0.52,0.59,0.56,0.62,0.43,0.47,0.62,0.53,0.41,0.29,0.27,0.19,0.28,0.32,0.28,0	91.2%
LAC 101, OKC 93	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.5,0.47,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.43,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.43,0.44,0.42,0.4,0.35,0.33,0.25,0.3,0.26,0.33,0.25,0.29,0.27,0.16,0.21,0.25,0.27,0.36,0.45,0.45,0.59,0.48,0.44,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.52,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.46,0.39,0.38,0.64,0.45,0.26,0	90.8%