NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	112		Excitement	7.4 [348]		MVP	JaVale McGee (DEN): +16.1%
Los Angeles Lakers	105		Comeback	1.6 [398]		LVP	Steve Nash (LAL): -12.8%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
JaVale McGee	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.15,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.09	0.07	-0.00	9	68%	0.19	1	-0.03	7	43%	-0.05
Ty Lawson	0.10	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.1,0.1	0.08	0.03	0.02	18	54%	0.10	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.00
Corey Brewer	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	-0.01	0.05	-0.01	14	45%	0.07	1	-0.02	3	33%	-0.03
Andre Miller	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.04	0.01	0.04	0.00	10	52%	0.06	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.02
Andre Iguodala	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.00	14	54%	0.07	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Kenneth Faried	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	6	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jordan Hamilton	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Danilo Gallinari	-0.05	0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	0.03	20	43%	0.00	1	-0.05	6	83%	-0.01
Kosta Koufos	-0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	8	41%	0.01	2	-0.07	1	100%	0.00

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jordan Hill	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.04	0.02	0.00	9	54%	0.06	0	0.00	6	83%	0.01
Jodie Meeks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.08,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	-0.02	-0.01	7	57%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Antawn Jamison	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kobe Bryant	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.01	-0.01	0.04	-0.03	0.02	26	52%	0.04	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.03
Dwight Howard	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.04	-0.01	7	70%	0.10	4	-0.13	6	33%	-0.07
Chris Duhon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Metta World Peace	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.05,-0.04,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.03	0.01	13	53%	0.02	3	-0.07	4	50%	-0.03
Pau Gasol	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.02	-0.05	0.02	9	55%	-0.01	3	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01
Steve Nash	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.08	-0.05	0.00	8	53%	0.01	5	-0.14	3	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.7	0.3	31.0	16.4	28.0	2.0	40.0	142.4
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +27.3%

LAL -0.8%

DEN +0.9%

DEN +17.8%

DEN +4.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	LAL	NBA	DEN	LAL	NBA
this game	14.8	13.3	15.4	109.8	101.9	104.1
season	14.4	14.9		108.4	106.0
opponent	15.3	15.4		105.7	104.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	15.3	14.0	13.2	16.7	14.8
LAL	13.5	12.1	15.5	12.1	13.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
JaVale McGee	54	55	0.66	-0.16	0.82	0.25	14	-7	21	13.6	16.2	-2.57	14.3	12.2	2.05
Andre Iguodala	81	81	0.59	-0.09	0.67	0.17	14	-7	21	14.3	16.9	-2.65	13.5	12.6	0.85
Andre Miller	50	51	0.55	-0.05	0.59	0.25	10	-3	13	14.9	14.7	0.15	12.6	14.0	-1.33
Corey Brewer	50	49	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.08	15	-8	23	14.7	14.9	-0.13	13.6	13.0	0.55
Danilo Gallinari	64	69	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.18	1	6	-5	15.6	13.5	2.04	13.2	13.4	-0.17
Ty Lawson	71	72	0.13	0.37	-0.25	0.10	1	6	-5	14.1	16.3	-2.18	13.5	12.9	0.57
Kenneth Faried	69	68	0.01	0.49	-0.47	0.25	-8	15	-23	15.9	12.5	3.38	13.0	13.8	-0.80
Kosta Koufos	62	60	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	0.17	-8	15	-23	15.0	14.4	0.58	13.1	13.5	-0.40
Jordan Hamilton	9	10	-0.09	0.59	-0.67	0.03	-4	11	-15	16.8	14.6	2.16	10.6	13.6	-2.99

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Steve Nash	76	77	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	-0.27	6	-13	19	13.3	13.2	0.16	14.7	15.1	-0.37
Antawn Jamison	9	9	-0.13	-0.37	0.25	0.08	-7	0	-7	16.1	13.0	3.08	11.4	15.1	-3.68
Metta World Peace	84	85	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.32	6	-13	19	12.7	15.8	-3.12	15.2	12.6	2.59
Dwight Howard	89	89	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	-0.33	5	-12	17	13.2	13.9	-0.64	14.9	13.9	1.01
Chris Duhon	26	23	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	0.05	-11	4	-15	13.2	13.3	-0.15	15.6	14.6	1.04
Jordan Hill	33	32	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.09	-8	1	-9	14.3	12.8	1.52	14.6	14.9	-0.35
Pau Gasol	71	70	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.32	-1	-6	5	13.1	13.7	-0.65	15.3	13.7	1.67
Jodie Meeks	38	37	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	-0.01	-13	6	-19	13.1	13.4	-0.31	13.2	15.7	-2.45
Kobe Bryant	89	88	-0.61	0.11	-0.71	-0.25	-12	5	-17	13.5	12.0	1.51	14.8	14.9	-0.06

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.48,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.42,0.34,0.36,0.34,0.38,0.4,0.37,0.44,0.42,0.37,0.31,0.41,0.51,0.5,0.49,0.43,0.58,0.55,0.45,0.57,0.55,0.52,0.41,0.48,0.48,0.26,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.12,0.11,0.07,0.13,0.07,0.11,0.09,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 93, MEM 83	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.52,0.47,0.5,0.49,0.43,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.38,0.34,0.33,0.4,0.38,0.35,0.31,0.35,0.36,0.36,0.39,0.39,0.41,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.45,0.41,0.52,0.44,0.25,0.22,0.19,0.26,0.17,0.12,0.08,0.06,0.05,0.01,0.03,0,0,0	93.1%
ORL 103, CHI 83	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.58,0.57,0.5,0.46,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.53,0.49,0.44,0.37,0.42,0.42,0.39,0.36,0.36,0.44,0.46,0.4,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.52,0.52,0.63,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.36,0.26,0.22,0.15,0.2,0.12,0.08,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	93.0%
MIN 95, PHI 84	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.5,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.4,0.39,0.47,0.48,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.41,0.46,0.45,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.59,0.52,0.4,0.52,0.38,0.18,0.18,0.24,0.32,0.14,0.12,0.14,0.11,0.02,0,0,0	92.9%