NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	86		Excitement	4.4 [961]		MVP	Josh Smith (ATL): +8.4%
Orlando Magic	80		Comeback	1.0 [1035]		LVP	Gustavo Ayon (ORL): -10.4%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Josh Smith	0.08	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08	-0.05	0.04	-0.10	14	47%	0.10	3	-0.02	6	67%	-0.00
Jeff Teague	0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07	0.02	0.02	-0.04	12	67%	0.13	4	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Korver	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.02	-0.02	7	64%	0.10	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Louis Williams	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.00	0.02	-0.02	9	52%	0.07	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.04
Devin Harris	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	8	56%	0.05	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Al Horford	0.01	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.03	0.01	-0.03	14	43%	0.03	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.00
Zaza Pachulia	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	5	54%	0.02	2	-0.04	3	33%	-0.02
Anthony Morrow	-0.07	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.10	-0.01	-0.03	11	18%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jameer Nelson	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.06	-0.00	0.00	9	67%	0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Vucevic	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	-0.00	0.01	7	57%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeQuan Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Arron Afflalo	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	-0.00	-0.03	16	48%	0.08	3	-0.08	1	100%	0.01
E'Twaun Moore	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.05	-0.02	0.05	7	69%	0.00	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
JJ Redick	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	14	46%	-0.00	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Maurice Harkless	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.08	-0.00	-0.01	4	0%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Andrew Nicholson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.04	-0.02	0.03	9	40%	-0.06	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.00
Glen Davis	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.01	11	36%	-0.05	2	-0.03	6	100%	0.02
Gustavo Ayon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.12	-0.00	-0.02	2	0%	-0.03	4	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.2	2.3	24.7	16.3	24.8	0.8	29.4	120.6
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +40.4%

ATL +3.0%

ORL -3.9%

ATL +10.2%

ATL +0.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	ORL	NBA	ATL	ORL	NBA
this game	16.2	15.6	15.4	94.5	88.9	104.1
season	15.1	15.5		102.6	100.3
opponent	15.3	15.5		107.7	102.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	15.7	16.0	15.5	17.6	16.2
ORL	18.6	15.3	13.9	15.1	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Josh Smith	69	67	0.62	-0.12	0.73	0.26	12	-6	18	16.1	16.6	-0.52	15.0	17.3	-2.26
Al Horford	77	78	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.14	15	-9	24	16.6	13.8	2.85	16.0	13.1	2.93
Jeff Teague	61	61	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.22	9	-3	12	16.4	15.8	0.64	15.5	16.0	-0.51
Kyle Korver	44	44	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.32	2	4	-2	15.9	16.5	-0.56	14.4	16.8	-2.33
Louis Williams	64	63	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.38	-3	9	-12	16.4	15.7	0.70	15.5	16.0	-0.49
Devin Harris	57	56	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.05	6	0	6	15.7	17.0	-1.23	16.0	15.1	0.91
Anthony Morrow	47	46	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.00	4	2	2	16.5	15.9	0.56	16.8	14.4	2.33
Zaza Pachulia	36	35	-0.20	0.70	-0.90	0.24	-15	21	-36	15.5	16.7	-1.15	15.9	15.5	0.38

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
DeQuan Jones	14	15	0.02	-0.52	0.53	-0.16	6	-12	18	13.8	16.0	-2.17	16.2	16.2	0.00
E'Twaun Moore	42	42	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.31	5	-11	16	14.4	16.7	-2.37	16.1	16.3	-0.19
Andrew Nicholson	51	54	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.49	11	-17	28	14.2	17.5	-3.38	15.4	17.4	-1.94
Gustavo Ayon	27	27	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.14	-2	-4	2	14.3	16.2	-1.89	14.8	16.8	-2.02
Maurice Harkless	19	19	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	0.14	-13	7	-20	18.9	14.7	4.21	16.7	16.1	0.68
JJ Redick	66	67	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	-0.39	5	-11	16	14.6	18.5	-3.92	16.3	16.0	0.21
Jameer Nelson	57	58	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	-0.20	-3	-3	0	16.5	14.1	2.37	16.4	15.8	0.64
Glen Davis	63	64	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.18	-4	-2	-2	16.2	14.3	1.89	16.8	14.8	2.02
Nikola Vucevic	35	34	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	0.25	-19	13	-32	17.9	14.1	3.80	16.4	16.1	0.29
Arron Afflalo	76	75	-0.61	0.11	-0.72	-0.14	-16	10	-26	16.0	13.6	2.43	16.4	15.4	1.00

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.38,0.35,0.28,0.29,0.31,0.3,0.37,0.4,0.37,0.4,0.34,0.36,0.4,0.44,0.49,0.41,0.44,0.42,0.41,0.25,0.18,0.21,0.16,0.13,0.05,0.08,0.12,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.12,0.18,0.08,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
IND 90, DET 72	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.4,0.34,0.37,0.38,0.39,0.39,0.37,0.38,0.34,0.35,0.33,0.32,0.33,0.44,0.54,0.46,0.39,0.41,0.44,0.36,0.22,0.2,0.21,0.18,0.2,0.09,0.1,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.1,0.09,0.04,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.2%
CLE 106, CHA 89	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.46,0.43,0.41,0.34,0.3,0.3,0.29,0.3,0.29,0.36,0.35,0.32,0.34,0.36,0.42,0.42,0.39,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.44,0.33,0.27,0.26,0.26,0.18,0.11,0.12,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.09,0.11,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.1%
TOR 125, MIA 104	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.45,0.44,0.38,0.4,0.33,0.32,0.31,0.36,0.38,0.37,0.36,0.36,0.33,0.35,0.33,0.37,0.36,0.36,0.39,0.31,0.22,0.14,0.11,0.09,0.2,0.09,0.1,0.09,0.1,0.06,0.04,0.1,0.13,0.08,0.07,0.04,0.05,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.0%