NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Utah Jazz	96		Excitement	4.7 [887]		MVP	Marvin Williams (UTA): +13.0%
New Orleans Hornets	84		Comeback	1.5 [804]		LVP	Al-Farouq Aminu (NOH): -24.2%

Utah Jazz
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Marvin Williams	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.03,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.09	0.04	0.00	7	73%	0.16	1	-0.03	8	75%	0.00
Paul Millsap	0.07	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.05	0.03	0.01	7	62%	0.11	2	-0.04	12	83%	0.03
Al Jefferson	0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.01	16	56%	0.08	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Gordon Hayward	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.03	0.00	8	65%	0.12	4	-0.07	7	71%	-0.00
Enes Kanter	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.04	-0.01	0.02	2	86%	0.04	1	-0.03	3	67%	-0.01
DeMarre Carroll	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.00	0.00	6	50%	0.01	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Earl Watson	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Derrick Favors	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.01	-0.00	8	50%	0.03	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Randy Foye	-0.04	0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	8	44%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jamaal Tinsley	-0.10	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.01	-0.01	1	0%	-0.02	4	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

New Orleans Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Greivis Vasquez	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.03	0.05	-0.00	15	53%	0.11	1	-0.03	4	75%	0.00
Darius Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.04	0.00	0.02	3	83%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Roger Mason Jr.	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.01	-0.00	7	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lance Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	0.00	0.02	2	60%	0.01	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Brian Roberts	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.02	10	50%	0.04	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.00
Robin Lopez	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.07	-0.03	0.04	9	75%	0.09	3	-0.09	6	67%	0.00
Ryan Anderson	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.02	-0.02	8	39%	-0.01	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Austin Rivers	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	0.00	4	25%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jason Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.14	-0.01	0.01	7	35%	-0.03	5	-0.13	6	83%	0.01
Al-Farouq Aminu	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.15,-0.15,-0.19,-0.21,-0.21,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24	-0.24	-0.15	-0.09	0.01	8	37%	-0.05	6	-0.20	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.2	1.8	28.2	15.4	32.6	0.8	28.6	131.5
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

UTA +24.4%

UTA +10.9%

NOH -4.3%

UTA +19.8%

NOH -0.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	UTA	NOH	NBA	UTA	NOH	NBA
this game	15.5	15.8	15.4	105.5	90.3	104.1
season	16.0	16.3		104.6	103.9
opponent	15.6	15.1		108.1	105.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
UTA	16.4	13.8	15.0	16.7	15.5
NOH	15.6	17.5	15.6	14.7	15.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Utah Jazz
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
DeMarre Carroll	43	44	0.34	0.16	0.19	0.08	9	3	6	14.6	16.2	-1.62	15.2	16.4	-1.12
Earl Watson	32	32	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.07	9	3	6	14.9	15.8	-0.86	16.4	15.5	0.91
Gordon Hayward	45	46	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.03	10	2	8	15.0	15.9	-0.91	15.3	16.3	-0.97
Derrick Favors	31	32	0.30	0.20	0.09	0.00	10	2	8	14.6	15.9	-1.24	16.3	15.6	0.77
Al Jefferson	65	65	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.09	6	6	0	16.0	14.2	1.78	15.5	16.7	-1.20
Enes Kanter	26	28	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.06	6	6	0	14.2	16.0	-1.78	16.7	15.5	1.20
Paul Millsap	60	61	0.20	0.30	-0.09	0.14	2	10	-8	15.9	14.6	1.24	15.6	16.3	-0.77
Randy Foye	46	47	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.12	2	10	-8	15.9	15.0	0.91	16.3	15.3	0.97
Jamaal Tinsley	59	61	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.08	3	9	-6	15.8	14.9	0.86	15.5	16.4	-0.91
Marvin Williams	48	49	0.16	0.34	-0.19	0.07	3	9	-6	16.2	14.6	1.62	16.4	15.2	1.12

New Orleans Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Roger Mason Jr.	36	34	0.09	-0.59	0.67	-0.06	5	-17	22	16.7	15.3	1.49	16.8	14.7	2.13
Lance Thomas	16	16	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.01	-4	-8	4	18.1	15.4	2.69	13.7	15.8	-2.08
Brian Roberts	40	39	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.06	-5	-7	2	15.0	16.5	-1.52	15.2	15.7	-0.49
Darius Miller	34	33	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.01	-7	-5	-2	15.7	15.9	-0.21	15.9	15.2	0.75
Robin Lopez	56	55	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.06	-6	-6	0	15.6	16.1	-0.49	15.5	15.4	0.07
Jason Smith	56	55	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	-0.13	-4	-8	4	16.2	15.4	0.81	15.1	16.0	-0.84
Al-Farouq Aminu	59	58	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.13	-5	-7	2	15.9	15.7	0.21	15.2	15.9	-0.75
Greivis Vasquez	67	65	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.11	-8	-4	-4	15.7	16.2	-0.44	15.7	14.8	0.86
Ryan Anderson	58	56	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	-0.09	-10	-2	-8	15.1	17.1	-1.95	16.2	14.2	2.05
Austin Rivers	43	44	-0.54	0.04	-0.57	-0.07	-16	4	-20	16.1	15.6	0.43	14.3	16.5	-2.21

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.54,0.56,0.58,0.53,0.57,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.5,0.47,0.45,0.4,0.38,0.33,0.3,0.31,0.34,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.49,0.38,0.34,0.31,0.27,0.36,0.26,0.22,0.21,0.1,0.11,0.08,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.06,0.12,0.08,0.06,0.09,0.01,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
SEA 109, LAC 101	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.48,0.53,0.54,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.55,0.53,0.43,0.4,0.44,0.42,0.4,0.35,0.35,0.37,0.36,0.44,0.42,0.41,0.42,0.37,0.34,0.31,0.27,0.3,0.26,0.23,0.18,0.15,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.13,0.12,0.11,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0	95.8%
DET 94, DAL 82	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.43,0.46,0.48,0.5,0.53,0.59,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.38,0.35,0.32,0.32,0.36,0.36,0.39,0.39,0.46,0.42,0.34,0.33,0.3,0.27,0.26,0.26,0.16,0.12,0.14,0.15,0.1,0.08,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	95.7%
UTA 91, POR 77	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.54,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.55,0.49,0.52,0.53,0.45,0.38,0.4,0.39,0.37,0.41,0.41,0.44,0.33,0.36,0.37,0.34,0.34,0.39,0.36,0.33,0.21,0.2,0.14,0.17,0.12,0.07,0.04,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.01,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	95.0%