NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	103		Excitement	9.9 [69]		MVP	Derrick Favors (UTA): +28.7%
Utah Jazz	105		Comeback	6.4 [272]		LVP	Andre Miller (DEN): -35.0%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kenneth Faried	0.21	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.15,0.21,0.17,0.17,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.21	0.11	0.10	0.00	12	70%	0.25	1	-0.03	6	83%	-0.06
Corey Brewer	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.12	0.04	0.01	5	100%	0.15	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Timofey Mozgov	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	2	100%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
JaVale McGee	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.05	-0.04	0.01	5	62%	0.02	1	-0.02	6	33%	-0.07
Ty Lawson	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	17	42%	-0.02	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.04
Kosta Koufos	-0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.01	-0.04	-0.00	4	64%	-0.02	2	-0.03	3	33%	-0.06
Evan Fournier	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.02	-0.04	0.00	2	75%	0.05	2	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Andre Iguodala	-0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.03	-0.00	9	50%	0.02	3	-0.09	2	0%	-0.02
Danilo Gallinari	-0.27	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.03,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.27,-0.27	-0.01	-0.25	0.01	10	52%	-0.23	2	-0.04	3	67%	-0.05
Andre Miller	-0.35	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.14,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.28,-0.35	-0.10	-0.25	-0.01	7	40%	-0.20	4	-0.15	6	67%	-0.03

Utah Jazz
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Derrick Favors	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.18,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.29	0.29	0.11	0.18	-0.00	8	76%	0.39	2	-0.10	9	78%	0.07
Al Jefferson	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.17,0.28,0.28,0.15	0.15	0.16	0.05	0.05	15	70%	0.17	1	-0.02	10	80%	0.04
Randy Foye	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	-0.00	0.07	-0.02	9	52%	0.11	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.07
Marvin Williams	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.02	0.03	-0.01	7	57%	0.08	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Earl Watson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.03	-0.00	3	83%	0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jamaal Tinsley	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,-0.03	-0.03	0.07	-0.09	0.01	9	83%	0.18	3	-0.21	0	0%	0.00
Paul Millsap	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	5	38%	-0.03	1	-0.03	3	33%	-0.03
Enes Kanter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	5	25%	-0.07	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
DeMarre Carroll	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.05	-0.13	-0.00	9	32%	-0.18	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Gordon Hayward	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.16,-0.16,-0.22,-0.28,-0.28	-0.28	-0.12	-0.15	0.00	8	21%	-0.24	2	-0.04	3	67%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.2	2.5	32.5	15.5	28.1	2.4	41.4	145.5
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN -6.7%

UTA +50.3%

UTA +5.9%

DEN -0.3%

UTA +0.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	UTA	NBA	DEN	UTA	NBA
this game	16.0	16.9	15.4	117.0	120.7	104.1
season	14.4	16.0		108.4	104.6
opponent	15.1	15.4		105.0	104.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	15.3	14.2	18.0	16.6	16.0
UTA	18.2	17.1	14.7	17.7	16.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Evan Fournier	12	13	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.01	0	-2	2	13.6	16.4	-2.80	19.0	16.6	2.45
Timofey Mozgov	13	14	-0.03	-0.47	0.43	0.11	-5	3	-8	15.4	16.1	-0.72	17.0	16.9	0.10
Andre Iguodala	47	45	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	-0.03	-2	0	-2	15.6	16.4	-0.78	16.4	17.5	-1.08
Corey Brewer	55	55	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	-0.22	4	-6	10	15.5	16.8	-1.26	17.2	16.5	0.71
JaVale McGee	38	36	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.03	-7	5	-12	15.2	16.6	-1.48	17.9	16.3	1.61
Kosta Koufos	49	51	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	-0.41	5	-7	12	16.6	15.2	1.38	16.3	17.9	-1.61
Kenneth Faried	66	65	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.45	5	-7	12	16.2	15.3	0.97	16.6	17.9	-1.26
Andre Miller	39	40	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	-0.39	2	-4	6	16.1	15.9	0.14	17.2	16.7	0.47
Ty Lawson	69	69	-0.54	0.04	-0.57	-0.48	-2	0	-2	16.1	15.7	0.40	17.2	15.8	1.44
Danilo Gallinari	52	47	-0.60	0.10	-0.70	-0.31	-10	8	-18	17.1	14.4	2.68	16.3	17.6	-1.35

Utah Jazz
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jamaal Tinsley	64	64	0.66	-0.16	0.83	0.46	7	-5	12	16.4	18.3	-1.82	16.3	15.2	1.15
Randy Foye	41	43	0.47	0.03	0.43	0.14	11	-9	20	15.3	18.4	-3.08	15.9	16.1	-0.23
Derrick Favors	43	43	0.34	0.16	0.17	0.39	-2	4	-6	17.8	16.1	1.68	15.5	16.5	-1.00
Al Jefferson	60	61	0.25	0.25	-0.01	0.25	0	2	-2	16.6	17.7	-1.14	16.6	14.7	1.82
Gordon Hayward	49	49	0.23	0.27	-0.03	0.47	-8	10	-18	18.3	15.2	3.13	15.7	16.4	-0.64
DeMarre Carroll	41	39	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.32	-3	5	-8	18.0	15.9	2.14	15.9	16.1	-0.14
Paul Millsap	44	45	0.16	0.34	-0.17	0.05	4	-2	6	16.1	17.8	-1.68	16.5	15.5	1.00
Marvin Williams	43	45	0.16	0.34	-0.17	0.05	4	-2	6	15.8	18.0	-2.14	16.5	15.5	1.00
Enes Kanter	27	27	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.10	2	0	2	17.7	16.6	1.14	14.7	16.6	-1.82
Earl Watson	23	24	-0.16	0.66	-0.83	-0.02	-5	7	-12	18.3	16.4	1.82	15.2	16.3	-1.15

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.5,0.48,0.39,0.39,0.38,0.39,0.35,0.31,0.27,0.28,0.32,0.26,0.27,0.31,0.39,0.3,0.27,0.22,0.14,0.17,0.16,0.2,0.21,0.27,0.2,0.22,0.21,0.15,0.26,0.48,0.59,0.56,0.49,0.5,0.38,0.49,0.57,0.58,0.53,0.66,0.61,0.69,0.71,0.67,0.73,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 104, MIA 108	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.38,0.35,0.32,0.34,0.34,0.35,0.4,0.45,0.38,0.32,0.3,0.3,0.21,0.21,0.22,0.22,0.21,0.27,0.28,0.25,0.2,0.16,0.21,0.23,0.19,0.24,0.36,0.29,0.22,0.28,0.41,0.48,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.52,0.62,0.58,0.53,0.6,0.66,0.61,0.72,0.85,0.96,1	90.9%
DEN 103, HOU 106	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.46,0.45,0.43,0.4,0.4,0.41,0.37,0.4,0.36,0.34,0.37,0.4,0.3,0.34,0.35,0.33,0.3,0.27,0.24,0.21,0.19,0.18,0.22,0.23,0.31,0.39,0.36,0.24,0.29,0.32,0.44,0.48,0.52,0.6,0.74,0.57,0.62,0.53,0.58,0.64,0.65,0.67,0.53,0.7,0.9,0.96,1	90.8%
PHI 88, SAS 100	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.38,0.34,0.35,0.34,0.32,0.31,0.27,0.24,0.32,0.3,0.31,0.27,0.31,0.3,0.28,0.29,0.26,0.28,0.19,0.2,0.22,0.21,0.26,0.27,0.27,0.3,0.29,0.23,0.25,0.34,0.48,0.56,0.46,0.43,0.52,0.63,0.58,0.41,0.53,0.68,0.75,0.89,0.96,0.92,1	90.7%