NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	104		Excitement	7.3 [357]		MVP	Bruce Bowen (MIA): +20.2%
Miami Heat	108		Comeback	7.3 [435]		LVP	Anthony Carter (MIA): -18.7%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ray Allen	0.15	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.05,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.11,0.15,0.16,0.15	0.08	0.09	0.01	13	70%	0.22	2	-0.07	11	82%	0.06
Darvin Ham	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.15,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.06	0.03	0.00	5	77%	0.09	0	0.00	3	67%	0.00
Tim Thomas	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.02	0.03	-0.01	13	56%	0.08	1	-0.02	6	83%	0.03
Scott Williams	0.04	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.01	4	75%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Danny Manning	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rafer Alston	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	4	25%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Glenn Robinson	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.05,0.07,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.02	-0.09	-0.01	18	50%	-0.05	2	-0.05	4	75%	0.01
Sam Cassell	-0.12	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.12	-0.05	-0.08	-0.01	20	51%	-0.03	4	-0.08	3	67%	0.01
Ervin Johnson	-0.15	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.07	-0.09	-0.01	3	0%	-0.05	1	-0.10	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bruce Bowen	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.12,0.12,0.22,0.2	0.20	0.02	0.17	-0.02	8	55%	0.20	0	0.00	4	0%	-0.05
Jamal Mashburn	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.06,0.11,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.12	0.06	0.01	18	70%	0.22	2	-0.05	4	75%	-0.00
Clar. Weatherspoon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,0.03,-0.01,0.05,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.02	0.10	-0.00	8	61%	0.15	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.04
Alonzo Mourning	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.05	0.02	-0.00	12	63%	0.07	0	0.00	11	55%	-0.03
Mark Strickland	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	-0.00	3	67%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
P.J. Brown	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.02	0.02	-0.02	4	40%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Tim Hardaway	0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.03,0.03,0.01	0.01	-0.05	0.05	-0.01	15	47%	0.04	2	-0.04	6	100%	0.02
Rodney Buford	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.02	-0.01	0.01	7	69%	0.09	2	-0.09	2	100%	0.02
Anthony Carter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.19	-0.11	-0.08	-0.01	3	0%	-0.09	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.4	2.3	27.8	16.4	25.3	2.4	38.5	139.2
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +63.5%

MIL -24.3%

MIL -3.7%

MIA +15.8%

MIL -1.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	MIA	NBA	MIL	MIA	NBA
this game	17.7	16.0	15.2	122.4	125.6	101.7
season	14.9	15.7		105.5	101.2
opponent	15.9	15.4		98.2	105.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	16.4	16.2	20.3	18.3	17.7
MIA	17.9	13.8	15.0	17.7	16.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Danny Manning	23	24	0.01	-0.51	0.52	-0.02	1	-5	6	17.5	17.8	-0.24	15.7	16.1	-0.35
Scott Williams	24	25	-0.06	-0.44	0.37	-0.04	-1	-3	2	17.6	17.7	-0.10	17.8	15.2	2.59
Rafer Alston	21	21	-0.13	-0.37	0.25	0.02	-5	1	-6	19.1	17.2	1.86	16.5	15.8	0.69
Tim Thomas	53	53	-0.19	-0.31	0.13	-0.22	1	-5	6	17.2	18.6	-1.39	15.1	17.4	-2.26
Sam Cassell	64	65	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	-0.40	1	-5	6	17.2	19.1	-1.86	15.8	16.5	-0.69
Darvin Ham	47	48	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.24	-5	1	-6	17.6	17.9	-0.32	15.4	16.8	-1.37
Glenn Robinson	70	71	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	-0.42	1	-5	6	17.8	17.3	0.52	16.1	15.7	0.40
Ervin Johnson	49	48	-0.42	-0.08	-0.35	-0.34	-3	-1	-2	17.7	17.6	0.10	16.0	16.0	0.05
Ray Allen	74	75	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.26	-10	6	-16	18.1	14.8	3.30	16.4	13.4	3.02

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bruce Bowen	64	63	0.64	-0.14	0.79	0.41	8	-4	12	16.8	13.7	3.12	17.8	17.3	0.57
Tim Hardaway	64	64	0.58	-0.08	0.67	0.26	11	-7	18	15.7	16.8	-1.10	17.9	17.0	0.92
Alonzo Mourning	73	71	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.40	2	2	0	15.5	18.8	-3.26	16.7	22.9	-6.27
Jamal Mashburn	67	68	0.31	0.19	0.13	0.25	2	2	0	16.1	15.8	0.27	18.0	16.5	1.46
P.J. Brown	44	44	0.27	0.23	0.03	0.24	1	3	-2	16.2	15.8	0.37	18.4	16.9	1.48
Clar. Weatherspoon	46	46	0.25	0.25	0.00	0.16	3	1	2	15.8	16.2	-0.42	17.9	17.4	0.52
Rodney Buford	33	32	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.05	3	1	2	16.3	15.8	0.49	19.5	16.6	2.90
Mark Strickland	17	16	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	0.01	-3	7	-10	14.4	16.4	-2.05	14.2	18.5	-4.32
Anthony Carter	22	21	-0.08	0.58	-0.67	0.12	-7	11	-18	16.8	15.7	1.10	17.0	17.9	-0.92

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.38,0.35,0.32,0.34,0.34,0.35,0.4,0.45,0.38,0.32,0.3,0.3,0.21,0.21,0.22,0.22,0.21,0.27,0.28,0.25,0.2,0.16,0.21,0.23,0.19,0.24,0.36,0.29,0.22,0.28,0.41,0.48,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.52,0.62,0.58,0.53,0.6,0.66,0.61,0.72,0.85,0.96,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 88, SAS 100	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.38,0.34,0.35,0.34,0.32,0.31,0.27,0.24,0.32,0.3,0.31,0.27,0.31,0.3,0.28,0.29,0.26,0.28,0.19,0.2,0.22,0.21,0.26,0.27,0.27,0.3,0.29,0.23,0.25,0.34,0.48,0.56,0.46,0.43,0.52,0.63,0.58,0.41,0.53,0.68,0.75,0.89,0.96,0.92,1	93.3%
DET 82, POR 86	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.39,0.36,0.37,0.36,0.38,0.32,0.35,0.36,0.36,0.35,0.32,0.26,0.18,0.17,0.22,0.24,0.18,0.2,0.22,0.18,0.2,0.18,0.19,0.26,0.24,0.25,0.24,0.23,0.25,0.22,0.31,0.33,0.4,0.42,0.48,0.62,0.67,0.68,0.59,0.53,0.73,0.86,0.84,0.83,0.72,1	92.3%
HOU 94, NOK 106	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.41,0.4,0.39,0.34,0.32,0.3,0.34,0.29,0.3,0.34,0.26,0.29,0.29,0.22,0.25,0.31,0.27,0.21,0.21,0.25,0.27,0.19,0.18,0.25,0.3,0.3,0.35,0.38,0.4,0.56,0.56,0.4,0.58,0.57,0.75,0.71,0.58,0.64,0.6,0.83,0.62,0.72,0.85,0.97,1	92.1%