NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	116		Excitement	11.7 [24]		MVP	JJ Redick (ORL): +20.8%
Orlando Magic	110		Comeback	6.5 [274]		LVP	Brandon Bass (BOS): -43.1%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Paul Pierce	0.15	0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.06,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.06	0.10	0.01	17	61%	0.21	3	-0.07	4	100%	0.02
Leandro Barbosa	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.11	0.02	0.00	8	88%	0.19	2	-0.06	1	100%	0.00
Kevin Garnett	0.07	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.06,0.08,0.17,0.29,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07	0.06	0.02	0.01	17	62%	0.16	3	-0.09	5	80%	0.01
Jared Sullinger	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.03	-0.00	12	44%	0.04	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Courtney Lee	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	-0.00	4	62%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Wilcox	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.00	3	67%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Terry	-0.09	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.07	-0.03	-0.00	6	42%	-0.02	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Rajon Rondo	-0.12	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.24,-0.15,-0.1,-0.12	-0.01	-0.12	-0.01	15	47%	0.04	1	-0.15	2	50%	-0.02
Jeff Green	-0.23	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23	-0.16	-0.07	-0.01	9	5%	-0.20	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.03
Brandon Bass	-0.43	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.19,-0.19,-0.49,-0.49,-0.42,-0.42,-0.43,-0.43	-0.06	-0.35	0.02	14	41%	-0.26	2	-0.17	4	75%	-0.03

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
JJ Redick	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.4,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.21,0.21	0.21	0.14	0.07	0.00	13	75%	0.37	1	-0.16	2	100%	0.01
Glen Davis	0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.17,0.17,0.09,0.06	0.06	-0.02	0.08	-0.00	12	44%	0.10	1	-0.03	10	90%	0.05
Gustavo Ayon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.00	0.00	3	62%	0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Maurice Harkless	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	3	83%	0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Vucevic	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.02	4	75%	0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
E'Twaun Moore	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	4	80%	0.08	4	-0.11	2	100%	0.01
Andrew Nicholson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.01	-0.04	0.01	6	67%	0.04	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Jameer Nelson	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.19,0.27,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.21,0.17,0.11,0.11,0.11,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12	-0.12	-0.01	-0.14	-0.03	17	57%	0.02	5	-0.14	1	100%	0.01
Arron Afflalo	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14,-0.21,-0.21,-0.24	-0.24	-0.05	-0.17	0.01	19	39%	-0.21	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Josh McRoberts	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.03,0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.17,-0.38,-0.38,-0.32,-0.32,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24	-0.24	-0.07	-0.17	0.00	9	35%	-0.10	2	-0.14	2	100%	0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	23.0	1.0	29.5	15.7	27.4	2.5	34.2	2.4	14.2	149.9
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	2.0	17.3	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL -4.7%

ORL -14.2%

BOS +60.7%

BOS +15.5%

ORL -7.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	ORL	NBA	BOS	ORL	NBA
this game	14.0	15.7	15.4	108.4	102.8	104.1
season	14.9	15.5		101.2	100.3
opponent	15.3	16.2		107.7	101.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
BOS	14.3	11.8	14.3	17.1	11.4	14.0
ORL	14.5	14.9	17.0	16.4	16.9	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jason Terry	58	58	0.89	-0.39	1.29	0.42	16	-10	26	12.9	15.2	-2.33	16.1	15.3	0.83
Rajon Rondo	87	86	0.83	-0.33	1.16	0.57	9	-3	12	13.5	15.9	-2.36	15.7	16.0	-0.27
Brandon Bass	75	74	0.82	-0.32	1.14	0.50	11	-5	16	13.0	16.3	-3.33	15.7	15.9	-0.25
Paul Pierce	78	77	0.70	-0.20	0.89	0.58	4	2	2	13.3	15.9	-2.63	15.6	16.2	-0.60
Kevin Garnett	71	72	0.52	-0.02	0.55	0.23	10	-4	14	13.8	14.2	-0.40	16.6	14.0	2.58
Chris Wilcox	28	27	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.09	-2	8	-10	13.6	14.1	-0.56	13.1	16.6	-3.51
Jeff Green	36	38	-0.29	0.79	-1.08	-0.20	-3	9	-12	15.8	13.1	2.75	16.1	15.6	0.53
Courtney Lee	47	46	-0.31	0.81	-1.12	-0.14	-6	12	-18	15.3	12.9	2.42	15.4	16.0	-0.53
Leandro Barbosa	20	21	-0.33	0.83	-1.16	-0.24	-3	9	-12	15.9	13.5	2.36	16.0	15.7	0.27
Jared Sullinger	35	36	-0.36	0.86	-1.22	-0.18	-6	12	-18	16.4	12.8	3.55	15.9	15.6	0.31

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Gustavo Ayon	33	32	0.01	-0.51	0.53	-0.02	1	-7	8	14.7	16.2	-1.51	13.6	14.2	-0.60
E'Twaun Moore	38	37	-0.01	-0.49	0.49	-0.03	1	-7	8	14.2	16.6	-2.37	14.7	13.6	1.14
Maurice Harkless	33	32	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	0.07	-9	3	-12	16.5	15.4	1.17	12.4	14.7	-2.25
Josh McRoberts	65	63	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	-0.34	4	-10	14	15.3	16.4	-1.10	15.0	12.6	2.40
JJ Redick	66	65	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	-0.26	1	-7	8	15.4	16.2	-0.78	14.6	13.0	1.58
Nikola Vucevic	36	37	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.00	-8	2	-10	15.9	15.7	0.23	12.6	14.7	-2.04
Glen Davis	78	79	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	-0.37	3	-9	12	16.1	14.8	1.30	14.3	13.1	1.14
Andrew Nicholson	30	30	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	-0.05	-9	3	-12	15.9	15.7	0.27	14.5	13.8	0.72
Jameer Nelson	69	70	-0.49	-0.01	-0.49	-0.29	-7	1	-8	16.6	14.2	2.37	13.6	14.7	-1.14
Arron Afflalo	87	90	-0.53	0.03	-0.55	-0.32	-7	1	-8	15.9	14.9	1.03	13.7	15.6	-1.98

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.47,0.44,0.42,0.43,0.43,0.43,0.49,0.4,0.46,0.35,0.42,0.36,0.36,0.35,0.29,0.26,0.36,0.31,0.24,0.23,0.25,0.22,0.24,0.31,0.28,0.19,0.24,0.29,0.35,0.28,0.28,0.37,0.36,0.58,0.78,0.75,0.71,0.81,0.74,0.71,0.86,0.61,0.46,0.47,0.42,0.54,0.45,0.55,0.23,0.05,0
Game		Similarity Score
DET 88, CLE 81	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.5,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.41,0.4,0.34,0.3,0.28,0.28,0.34,0.36,0.42,0.4,0.35,0.36,0.28,0.26,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.31,0.28,0.2,0.17,0.14,0.21,0.29,0.41,0.44,0.4,0.48,0.5,0.57,0.62,0.71,0.77,0.82,0.66,0.72,0.69,0.66,0.43,0.42,0.46,0.47,0.36,0.17,0.09,0	91.6%
PHI 103, ATL 100	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.5,0.5,0.51,0.53,0.57,0.57,0.55,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.4,0.38,0.38,0.33,0.32,0.36,0.34,0.31,0.3,0.27,0.22,0.29,0.26,0.22,0.33,0.36,0.29,0.25,0.31,0.27,0.22,0.32,0.46,0.57,0.75,0.67,0.68,0.7,0.69,0.73,0.55,0.63,0.32,0.16,0.46,0.47,0.55,0.32,0.26,0	90.5%
UTA 93, LAC 87	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.39,0.36,0.34,0.37,0.37,0.38,0.38,0.44,0.37,0.38,0.36,0.36,0.42,0.37,0.37,0.35,0.36,0.28,0.23,0.2,0.3,0.38,0.28,0.27,0.27,0.3,0.29,0.2,0.24,0.3,0.33,0.36,0.54,0.48,0.62,0.62,0.72,0.53,0.76,0.74,0.69,0.55,0.15,0.26,0.46,0.39,0.37,0.23,0.05,0	90.4%