NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	90		Excitement	9.3 [98]		MVP	Brandon Knight (DET): +49.1%
Detroit Pistons	91		Comeback	7.2 [188]		LVP	Greg Monroe (DET): -35.5%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Andrea Bargnani	0.45	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.05,0.16,0.13,0.21,0.45,0.45	0.20	0.27	0.02	20	74%	0.54	2	-0.09	6	83%	-0.04
Ed Davis	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.07	0.07	0.00	5	69%	0.14	0	0.00	3	100%	0.03
Jose Calderon	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.02	0.07	0.00	2	83%	0.11	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Amir Johnson	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.00	-0.01	4	56%	0.03	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Jonas Valanciunas	-0.06	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.01	-0.04	0.01	6	56%	0.03	2	-0.09	4	75%	0.00
Dominic McGuire	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.05	-0.02	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Linas Kleiza	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.05	-0.04	0.00	8	25%	-0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeMar DeRozan	-0.16	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.11	-0.03	0.01	9	25%	-0.09	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Terrence Ross	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.10	-0.06	0.00	5	0%	-0.12	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Lowry	-0.33	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,-0.12,-0.33	-0.01	-0.32	-0.01	17	46%	-0.16	2	-0.17	7	71%	-0.04

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brandon Knight	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.18,0.18,0.49	0.49	0.04	0.44	-0.00	8	89%	0.61	5	-0.12	2	50%	-0.05
Tayshaun Prince	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.2	0.20	0.09	0.13	0.02	11	73%	0.22	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jason Maxiell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.03	0.04	-0.00	3	60%	0.07	0	0.00	4	100%	0.03
Corey Maggette	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.03	0.00	5	45%	-0.03	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Jonas Jerebko	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	4	25%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rodney Stuckey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.02	-0.03	9	35%	-0.03	1	-0.03	5	60%	-0.02
Will Bynum	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.03	-0.05	0.00	2	0%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Singler	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.03	-0.07	0.00	5	50%	-0.05	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Andre Drummond	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.02	-0.11	-0.01	11	46%	-0.07	1	-0.05	6	17%	-0.17
Greg Monroe	0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15,-0.21,-0.2,-0.35,-0.35	-0.35	-0.11	-0.24	0.00	20	41%	-0.09	4	-0.26	6	50%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.1	1.8	29.2	17.4	29.3	2.4	42.4	145.6
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +34.9%

TOR -19.9%

DET +35.3%

TOR -4.6%

DET +4.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	DET	NBA	TOR	DET	NBA
this game	16.3	15.7	15.4	101.1	100.0	104.1
season	16.1	15.7		104.4	102.3
opponent	15.5	15.3		106.6	105.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	16.0	18.0	14.4	17.1	16.3
DET	13.5	14.7	16.9	18.0	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Terrence Ross	31	31	0.27	-0.77	1.03	0.06	7	-8	15	16.3	16.4	-0.10	17.1	14.9	2.15
Ed Davis	17	18	0.21	-0.71	0.92	0.15	2	-3	5	18.0	15.9	2.07	18.4	15.0	3.38
Jose Calderon	26	27	0.17	-0.67	0.85	0.03	5	-6	11	17.6	15.8	1.77	17.8	14.8	3.03
Linas Kleiza	41	41	0.14	-0.64	0.77	0.14	0	-1	1	17.6	15.2	2.43	17.7	14.1	3.60
Jonas Valanciunas	60	59	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	0.11	-7	6	-13	16.5	16.0	0.53	15.1	16.8	-1.74
Amir Johnson	29	32	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.58	6	-7	13	16.0	16.5	-0.53	16.8	15.1	1.74
Kyle Lowry	61	64	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.43	-2	1	-3	15.7	17.7	-2.08	14.8	17.8	-3.03
DeMar DeRozan	65	67	-0.66	0.16	-0.82	-0.51	-5	4	-9	15.8	17.6	-1.78	15.0	17.7	-2.70
Andrea Bargnani	72	73	-0.71	0.21	-0.92	-0.62	-3	2	-5	15.9	18.0	-2.07	15.0	18.4	-3.38
Dominic McGuire	43	43	-0.93	0.43	-1.35	-0.69	-8	7	-15	16.0	16.6	-0.59	13.9	17.3	-3.41

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tayshaun Prince	74	73	0.73	-0.23	0.95	0.64	3	-2	5	15.2	17.9	-2.78	15.9	18.4	-2.50
Kyle Singler	56	57	0.71	-0.21	0.92	0.51	7	-6	13	14.6	17.4	-2.75	16.4	16.2	0.22
Greg Monroe	74	73	0.68	-0.18	0.87	0.39	10	-9	19	15.4	16.9	-1.48	16.0	17.9	-1.89
Brandon Knight	52	52	0.62	-0.12	0.73	0.53	3	-2	5	14.2	17.7	-3.52	16.0	16.8	-0.83
Rodney Stuckey	40	37	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.61	-3	4	-7	16.2	15.3	0.97	16.2	16.4	-0.14
Jason Maxiell	40	40	0.11	0.39	-0.27	0.05	2	-1	3	15.4	15.9	-0.46	15.3	17.2	-1.91
Will Bynum	39	37	-0.12	0.62	-0.73	-0.06	-2	3	-5	17.7	14.2	3.52	16.8	16.0	0.83
Andre Drummond	43	42	-0.18	0.68	-0.86	-0.12	-2	3	-5	16.8	14.7	2.06	17.6	15.2	2.36
Corey Maggette	15	13	-0.22	0.72	-0.94	-0.13	-3	4	-7	18.7	15.1	3.57	18.3	16.0	2.32
Jonas Jerebko	22	21	-0.35	0.85	-1.20	-0.06	-10	11	-21	16.4	15.5	0.90	17.3	16.0	1.26

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.53,0.55,0.57,0.52,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.54,0.52,0.59,0.58,0.67,0.67,0.58,0.65,0.74,0.82,0.76,0.84,0.82,0.62,0.62,0.63,0.63,0.56,0.66,0.52,0.43,0.37,0.42,0.31,0.34,0.33,0.19,0.28,0.45,0.26,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 91, SAC 92	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.38,0.35,0.36,0.47,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.54,0.56,0.59,0.66,0.67,0.67,0.63,0.74,0.75,0.75,0.76,0.79,0.74,0.68,0.62,0.59,0.67,0.56,0.46,0.48,0.43,0.38,0.42,0.47,0.29,0.27,0.32,0.37,0.45,0.26,1	92.5%
CHI 78, PHI 79	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.46,0.41,0.4,0.43,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.47,0.44,0.45,0.44,0.49,0.52,0.61,0.71,0.64,0.64,0.7,0.73,0.74,0.72,0.75,0.8,0.76,0.75,0.85,0.72,0.66,0.67,0.6,0.5,0.48,0.41,0.38,0.32,0.31,0.35,0.33,0.53,0.36,0.22,0.09,1	90.2%
ORL 97, GSW 98	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.48,0.51,0.42,0.38,0.41,0.47,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.46,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.42,0.48,0.61,0.67,0.73,0.78,0.76,0.79,0.67,0.78,0.84,0.79,0.62,0.56,0.59,0.52,0.48,0.42,0.48,0.38,0.28,0.23,0.21,0.24,0.22,0.1,0.11,0.43,0.59,1	90.0%