NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	93		Excitement	6.6 [467]		MVP	Arron Afflalo (ORL): +27.5%
Chicago Bulls	99		Comeback	2.6 [763]		LVP	Glen Davis (ORL): -18.5%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Arron Afflalo	0.27	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.09,0.12,0.15,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.28,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.28,0.27	0.21	0.05	-0.01	17	72%	0.27	0	0.00	5	100%	0.04
E'Twaun Moore	0.09	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.08	0.03	0.02	13	65%	0.12	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Andrew Nicholson	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeQuan Jones	0.00	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Josh McRoberts	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Vucevic	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.01	-0.04	0.00	13	48%	0.00	2	-0.05	7	86%	0.03
Gustavo Ayon	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.08	-0.02	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
JJ Redick	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.14,-0.14,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.03	-0.09	0.00	11	45%	-0.05	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Ish Smith	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.09	-0.05	-0.00	5	20%	-0.07	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Glen Davis	-0.19	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.18,-0.21,-0.21,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.16,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.19	-0.11	-0.08	-0.01	22	33%	-0.16	1	-0.02	5	40%	-0.09

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Joakim Noah	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,-0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.05	0.06	-0.01	13	59%	0.18	2	-0.07	8	75%	0.01
Luol Deng	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.09	0.05	0.03	16	61%	0.14	1	-0.04	6	83%	0.01
Kirk Hinrich	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.05	0.02	-0.01	5	67%	0.09	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.00
Taj Gibson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.08	0.08	0.05	0.04	0.01	9	57%	0.08	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Nate Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.04	-0.00	8	61%	0.10	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.02
Marco Belinelli	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Richard Hamilton	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.06	0.03	-0.01	8	41%	0.04	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.01
Jimmy Butler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03	-0.03	0.01	-0.03	0.02	3	50%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Nazr Mohammed	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	3	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Boozer	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.09	-0.07	-0.00	18	33%	-0.12	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	20.9	2.6	28.6	15.4	27.2	1.5	34.5	130.6
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +41.6%

ORL -7.0%

CHI +4.3%

CHI +7.7%

CHI +3.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	CHI	NBA	ORL	CHI	NBA
this game	15.9	15.0	15.4	101.1	104.2	104.1
season	15.5	16.6		100.3	101.7
opponent	15.2	15.3		102.3	107.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	17.0	15.2	15.8	15.5	15.9
CHI	13.8	14.8	17.0	14.5	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Gustavo Ayon	21	22	0.18	-0.68	0.85	0.06	4	-10	14	13.8	16.5	-2.66	16.0	14.6	1.42
Ish Smith	32	35	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.16	5	-11	16	15.4	16.1	-0.69	15.1	14.9	0.16
DeQuan Jones	22	23	-0.17	-0.34	0.17	0.10	-9	3	-12	19.0	14.9	4.19	14.0	15.3	-1.32
Nikola Vucevic	78	81	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	-0.27	1	-7	8	15.8	16.3	-0.50	15.1	13.9	1.29
Josh McRoberts	29	30	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	-0.13	-4	-2	-2	15.9	15.8	0.11	14.5	15.2	-0.72
Andrew Nicholson	16	15	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.06	-7	1	-8	15.0	16.0	-1.04	13.5	15.2	-1.77
Arron Afflalo	66	67	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.18	-4	-2	-2	15.8	16.0	-0.14	15.1	14.7	0.35
E'Twaun Moore	63	64	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	-0.24	-4	-2	-2	16.0	15.6	0.40	15.1	14.7	0.42
JJ Redick	67	68	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.35	-4	-2	-2	14.9	18.4	-3.49	15.1	14.6	0.56
Glen Davis	66	70	-0.62	0.12	-0.75	-0.39	-8	2	-10	16.8	13.4	3.40	14.8	15.3	-0.49

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jimmy Butler	42	42	0.73	-0.23	0.96	0.35	13	-7	20	14.7	15.2	-0.48	15.3	16.4	-1.10
Nate Robinson	41	42	0.61	-0.11	0.73	0.32	10	-4	14	15.5	14.6	0.89	15.9	15.8	0.04
Joakim Noah	79	77	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.28	11	-5	16	15.0	14.8	0.17	16.2	14.0	2.22
Taj Gibson	41	39	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.40	5	1	4	14.1	15.6	-1.51	15.7	16.0	-0.24
Luol Deng	77	74	0.35	0.15	0.21	0.32	1	5	-4	14.9	15.0	-0.05	16.1	14.9	1.21
Richard Hamilton	54	52	0.18	0.32	-0.15	-0.15	11	-5	16	15.2	14.7	0.48	16.3	15.2	1.08
Carlos Boozer	54	53	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	-0.08	1	5	-4	15.6	14.1	1.51	16.0	15.7	0.24
Nazr Mohammed	16	15	-0.10	0.60	-0.70	0.04	-5	11	-16	14.8	15.0	-0.17	14.0	16.2	-2.22
Kirk Hinrich	54	50	-0.11	0.61	-0.73	0.00	-4	10	-14	14.6	15.5	-0.89	15.8	15.9	-0.04
Marco Belinelli	17	16	-0.26	0.76	-1.01	0.12	-13	19	-32	15.0	14.9	0.05	14.8	16.1	-1.27

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.61,0.62,0.61,0.63,0.63,0.58,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.42,0.39,0.44,0.41,0.42,0.36,0.36,0.46,0.45,0.43,0.39,0.52,0.52,0.58,0.48,0.34,0.3,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.43,0.53,0.57,0.63,0.82,0.88,0.83,0.81,0.95,0.98,0.92,1
Game		Similarity Score
POR 85, BKN 98	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.54,0.61,0.61,0.63,0.65,0.6,0.55,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.4,0.38,0.42,0.49,0.47,0.48,0.46,0.46,0.44,0.41,0.42,0.4,0.45,0.39,0.52,0.48,0.58,0.48,0.55,0.48,0.33,0.52,0.5,0.48,0.57,0.53,0.63,0.74,0.91,0.91,0.97,0.97,1,1,1	93.3%
MIL 89, UTA 94	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.64,0.61,0.58,0.59,0.59,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.6,0.57,0.6,0.54,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.36,0.33,0.3,0.33,0.35,0.38,0.45,0.42,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.44,0.44,0.48,0.4,0.46,0.52,0.52,0.67,0.81,0.83,0.92,0.95,0.9,0.95,0.95,0.98,1	92.8%
LAL 87, PHI 93	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.58,0.6,0.61,0.58,0.53,0.57,0.61,0.62,0.6,0.62,0.54,0.47,0.4,0.42,0.33,0.33,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.42,0.36,0.44,0.46,0.34,0.31,0.36,0.42,0.58,0.52,0.41,0.41,0.31,0.37,0.32,0.34,0.34,0.53,0.57,0.73,0.7,0.76,0.83,0.69,0.85,0.9,0.84,1	92.8%