NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Oklahoma City Thunder	84		Excitement	8.9 [139]		MVP	Tony Parker (SAS): +53.6%
San Antonio Spurs	86		Comeback	11.7 [115]		LVP	Russell Westbrook (OKC): -48.4%

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Martin	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.07	0.07	0.00	10	62%	0.16	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.02
Eric Maynor	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.01	0.07	-0.00	6	58%	0.10	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kendrick Perkins	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.02	0.04	-0.00	2	50%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Thabo Sefolosha	0.01	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.01	0.00	7	50%	0.03	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Reggie Jackson	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Hasheem Thabeet	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.01	0.00	0	50%	0.03	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.02
Nick Collison	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.05	-0.04	-0.00	6	43%	0.01	2	-0.09	2	100%	0.01
Kevin Durant	-0.08	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	0.01	-0.09	0.00	18	56%	0.06	4	-0.14	5	80%	0.01
Serge Ibaka	-0.08	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	0.00	7	29%	-0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Russell Westbrook	-0.48	0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.13,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.17,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.24,-0.24,-0.23,-0.23,-0.28,-0.26,-0.24,-0.48	-0.18	-0.30	0.01	21	36%	-0.12	6	-0.37	8	75%	0.06

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tony Parker	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.11,0.54	0.54	0.01	0.53	0.00	13	50%	0.57	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.02
Danny Green	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.10	0.02	0.01	9	72%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gary Neal	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.03	0.03	-0.00	6	67%	0.08	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Tiago Splitter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Matt Bonner	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Boris Diaw	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	6	62%	0.12	3	-0.13	4	50%	-0.03
Stephen Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0.00	10	50%	0.04	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Patty Mills	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	0.01	-0.09	-0.01	19	45%	-0.08	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.06
DeJuan Blair	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.06	-0.05	-0.00	5	20%	-0.08	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Kawhi Leonard	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.16,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.16,-0.16,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.12	-0.02	-0.01	8	33%	0.01	4	-0.15	2	100%	0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.9	3.5	30.4	18.4	28.5	3.6	34.3	146.7
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +74.4%

OKC -24.1%

OKC -32.6%

SAS +30.0%

SAS +2.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	OKC	SAS	NBA	OKC	SAS	NBA
this game	15.6	15.2	15.4	90.3	91.5	104.1
season	14.8	15.2		109.3	106.4
opponent	15.1	15.5		99.5	100.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
OKC	13.9	17.3	15.5	15.7	15.6
SAS	15.5	14.0	16.5	14.9	15.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kevin Martin	62	63	0.09	-0.59	0.69	-0.08	6	-8	14	16.3	14.2	2.13	15.0	15.7	-0.77
Nick Collison	42	41	0.05	-0.55	0.61	-0.06	4	-6	10	14.8	16.2	-1.45	14.1	16.1	-2.00
Reggie Jackson	1	1	0.01	-0.51	0.52	0.01	0	-2	2	2.0	15.7	-13.73	19.0	15.2	3.82
Eric Maynor	23	23	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.09	-4	2	-6	15.6	15.6	0.04	12.7	16.0	-3.29
Hasheem Thabeet	25	26	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.15	-2	0	-2	15.5	15.6	-0.08	14.0	15.7	-1.74
Russell Westbrook	70	71	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.35	2	-4	6	15.6	15.6	-0.04	16.0	12.7	3.29
Kevin Durant	78	78	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.39	2	-4	6	15.5	15.8	-0.26	15.5	13.9	1.55
Serge Ibaka	60	59	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.28	-8	6	-14	15.7	15.4	0.24	15.2	15.3	-0.10
Thabo Sefolosha	53	55	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.43	-4	2	-6	15.0	16.3	-1.35	15.7	14.5	1.17
Kendrick Perkins	51	53	-0.55	0.05	-0.61	-0.38	-6	4	-10	16.2	14.8	1.45	16.1	14.1	2.00

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Boris Diaw	69	69	0.78	-0.28	1.07	0.46	11	-9	20	15.4	14.8	0.52	15.5	15.8	-0.34
DeJuan Blair	22	22	0.39	0.11	0.27	0.12	9	-7	16	13.8	15.7	-1.83	15.7	15.5	0.19
Kawhi Leonard	66	63	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.33	1	1	0	14.7	16.6	-1.92	15.1	16.6	-1.55
Danny Green	68	65	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.30	0	2	-2	15.4	14.7	0.68	15.9	14.9	0.98
Tony Parker	67	65	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.36	-2	4	-6	15.6	14.4	1.20	15.7	15.3	0.42
Stephen Jackson	51	54	0.27	0.23	0.05	0.21	2	0	2	15.3	15.2	0.11	16.1	14.8	1.31
Tim Duncan	65	63	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.33	-5	7	-12	15.5	14.5	1.02	15.6	15.5	0.07
Gary Neal	34	35	0.06	0.44	-0.39	0.06	0	2	-2	14.7	15.5	-0.76	14.6	16.2	-1.53
Matt Bonner	16	16	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.00	0	2	-2	15.1	15.2	-0.12	16.6	15.4	1.19
Patty Mills	4	5	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	-0.00	-2	4	-6	15.5	15.2	0.29	13.4	15.7	-2.30
Tiago Splitter	8	8	-0.08	0.58	-0.65	0.04	-4	6	-10	17.4	15.0	2.35	16.1	15.5	0.60

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.45,0.41,0.4,0.5,0.54,0.55,0.53,0.55,0.49,0.47,0.46,0.43,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.47,0.49,0.52,0.47,0.52,0.56,0.59,0.58,0.63,0.66,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.67,0.71,0.78,0.84,0.7,0.66,0.68,0.5,0.38,0.52,0.67,0.81,0.83,0.76,0.73,0.68,0.54,0.45,0.08,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 97, SAC 100	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.46,0.5,0.5,0.43,0.41,0.43,0.43,0.42,0.44,0.4,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.61,0.64,0.7,0.58,0.68,0.63,0.69,0.7,0.64,0.62,0.59,0.65,0.66,0.68,0.75,0.62,0.57,0.57,0.52,0.68,0.83,0.81,0.67,0.76,0.55,0.45,0.16,1	91.8%
MIA 107, LAL 108	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.47,0.45,0.51,0.45,0.46,0.42,0.44,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.59,0.56,0.61,0.66,0.59,0.59,0.54,0.62,0.63,0.63,0.67,0.61,0.68,0.78,0.69,0.7,0.63,0.48,0.5,0.66,0.66,0.67,0.76,0.87,0.89,0.78,0.81,0.63,0.67,0.42,1	90.2%
TOR 101, PHI 103	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.46,0.52,0.56,0.45,0.53,0.55,0.51,0.58,0.58,0.54,0.45,0.36,0.33,0.38,0.44,0.48,0.49,0.48,0.44,0.42,0.51,0.5,0.52,0.58,0.55,0.67,0.67,0.68,0.71,0.69,0.66,0.74,0.64,0.62,0.62,0.71,0.83,0.73,0.79,0.76,0.67,0.68,0.71,0.57,0.42,1	89.8%