NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	102		Excitement	4.1 [782]		MVP	Alan Anderson (TOR): +10.1%
Atlanta Hawks	86		Comeback	1.0 [241]		LVP	Joe Johnson (ATL): -13.9%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Alan Anderson	0.10	0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.11	0.01	0.02	9	84%	0.16	2	-0.06	1	100%	0.00
DeMar DeRozan	0.09	0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.07	0.03	0.01	15	56%	0.12	1	-0.03	11	64%	-0.03
Ben Uzoh	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.02	0.02	-0.01	7	71%	0.09	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Amir Johnson	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.00	6	67%	0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Ed Davis	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	0.01	0.02	7	71%	0.05	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Solomon Alabi	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gary Forbes	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Johnson	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.11	-0.00	0.11	8	75%	0.02	1	-0.03	4	75%	0.00
Justin Dentmon	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.07	-0.00	-0.07	10	42%	0.04	3	-0.05	4	75%	-0.00
Linas Kleiza	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	7	33%	-0.03	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Aaron Gray	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	4	50%	0.00	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Vladimir Radmanovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.05	-0.00	0.02	6	67%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kirk Hinrich	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.01	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Josh Smith	0,0,0,0.01,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	-0.01	0.02	20	55%	0.07	3	-0.06	7	57%	-0.03
Jerry Stackhouse	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jannero Pargo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	5	43%	-0.00	1	-0.00	4	100%	0.01
Ivan Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	-0.01	-0.01	9	52%	0.06	2	-0.06	9	67%	-0.00
Willie Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.05	0.02	0.08	8	67%	0.01	2	-0.02	5	80%	0.00
Jason Collins	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	1	25%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Marvin Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	5	50%	-0.00	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.00
Jeff Teague	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	4	25%	-0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Joe Johnson	0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.10	-0.04	-0.00	12	27%	-0.11	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.9	2.5	30.3	15.7	25.0	2.5	31.9	132.8
league avg	25.5	2.3	29.8	14.2	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +51.2%

ATL -2.0%

TOR +8.1%

ATL -8.8%

TOR +1.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	ATL	NBA	TOR	ATL	NBA
this game	18.0	13.6	15.6	113.3	92.5	102.8
season	16.5	15.7		98.9	102.5
opponent	15.9	15.2		99.5	102.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	18.0	14.5	21.2	18.6	18.0
ATL	13.5	14.8	14.8	11.4	13.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
DeMar DeRozan	64	68	0.57	-0.07	0.63	-0.08	22	-6	28	17.6	18.8	-1.13	14.4	11.4	3.04
Alan Anderson	62	63	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.01	15	1	14	18.5	16.8	1.71	13.9	12.9	0.96
Ben Uzoh	47	49	0.38	0.12	0.25	0.05	11	5	6	19.0	16.8	2.25	14.0	13.2	0.80
Linas Kleiza	53	54	0.26	0.24	0.02	-0.06	11	5	6	16.3	20.3	-3.96	13.3	14.0	-0.68
Amir Johnson	38	40	0.24	0.26	-0.01	0.01	8	8	0	18.9	17.3	1.56	14.5	12.9	1.66
Ed Davis	48	50	0.22	0.28	-0.05	0.11	4	12	-8	18.6	17.3	1.32	13.9	13.2	0.78
Aaron Gray	39	40	0.22	0.28	-0.06	-0.01	8	8	0	18.7	17.4	1.37	12.7	14.2	-1.50
Justin Dentmon	43	44	0.12	0.38	-0.25	-0.02	5	11	-6	16.8	19.0	-2.25	13.2	14.0	-0.80
James Johnson	46	47	0.03	0.47	-0.44	-0.03	2	14	-12	16.6	19.4	-2.78	13.4	13.8	-0.40
Solomon Alabi	5	5	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.09	-3	19	-22	22.2	17.7	4.48	6.4	14.0	-7.59
Gary Forbes	5	5	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.09	-3	19	-22	22.2	17.7	4.48	6.4	14.0	-7.59

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jerry Stackhouse	14	13	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.03	1	-17	18	9.1	14.4	-5.31	19.3	17.7	1.57
Willie Green	39	38	-0.03	-0.47	0.45	0.00	-1	-15	14	13.8	13.4	0.37	16.9	18.7	-1.81
Jason Collins	11	9	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	0.06	-5	-11	6	16.1	13.2	2.85	17.2	18.0	-0.83
Ivan Johnson	54	53	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	-0.09	0	-16	16	14.8	11.9	2.90	18.5	17.1	1.41
Jannero Pargo	46	45	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	-0.04	-4	-12	8	12.4	14.7	-2.31	17.5	18.4	-0.96
Kirk Hinrich	29	27	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	0.06	-8	-8	0	14.7	13.1	1.61	19.0	17.5	1.42
Marvin Williams	58	57	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	-0.13	-4	-12	8	12.9	14.7	-1.82	17.7	18.4	-0.72
Jeff Teague	47	45	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	0.01	-12	-4	-8	14.7	12.4	2.31	18.4	17.5	0.96
Josh Smith	65	62	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.06	-11	-5	-6	13.3	14.2	-0.86	18.4	17.0	1.46
Vladimir Radmanovic	44	44	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	0.07	-19	3	-22	13.1	14.0	-0.84	16.0	19.8	-3.85
Joe Johnson	58	57	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.00	-17	1	-18	13.7	13.4	0.24	18.8	16.6	2.15

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.46,0.47,0.47,0.43,0.38,0.34,0.37,0.36,0.42,0.46,0.47,0.42,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.34,0.41,0.39,0.34,0.3,0.2,0.14,0.23,0.23,0.25,0.3,0.3,0.32,0.17,0.16,0.23,0.2,0.13,0.15,0.13,0.06,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 93, BOS 72	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.43,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.32,0.33,0.37,0.44,0.46,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.44,0.37,0.39,0.34,0.36,0.31,0.28,0.27,0.27,0.24,0.23,0.25,0.27,0.21,0.18,0.23,0.21,0.24,0.26,0.18,0.19,0.1,0.08,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.6%
IND 94, MIA 89	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.47,0.4,0.37,0.36,0.39,0.35,0.4,0.47,0.52,0.49,0.46,0.38,0.44,0.46,0.41,0.36,0.34,0.29,0.39,0.27,0.27,0.26,0.28,0.3,0.24,0.21,0.18,0.19,0.16,0.23,0.11,0.13,0.08,0.06,0.05,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.02,0	94.9%
MIL 133, ATL 114	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.43,0.45,0.47,0.43,0.45,0.4,0.45,0.38,0.44,0.47,0.44,0.39,0.34,0.33,0.27,0.25,0.31,0.31,0.36,0.28,0.27,0.29,0.15,0.13,0.15,0.22,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.06,0.02,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	94.8%