NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Phoenix Suns	99		Excitement	8.9 [115]		MVP	Arron Afflalo (DEN): +40.3%
Denver Nuggets	105		Comeback	5.8 [233]		LVP	Marcin Gortat (PHX): -16.0%

Phoenix Suns
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Redd	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.11,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.02	0.14	-0.00	12	47%	0.15	0	0.00	8	75%	0.03
Josh Childress	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.02	0.03	-0.00	2	50%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Sebastian Telfair	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.00	5	50%	0.03	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Markieff Morris	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.01	0.00	1	50%	0.01	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Steve Nash	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.08,0.08,0.16,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.00	0.01	10	64%	0.10	3	-0.10	2	100%	0.02
Shannon Brown	-0.06	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,0.06,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	18	47%	0.04	3	-0.10	2	50%	-0.01
Robin Lopez	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	3	33%	-0.02	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Jared Dudley	-0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.08,-0.08	-0.01	-0.10	-0.02	14	52%	-0.00	3	-0.08	5	80%	0.02
Channing Frye	-0.09	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,-0.05,-0.09	0.02	-0.11	0.00	10	54%	-0.07	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.03
Marcin Gortat	-0.16	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.16,-0.16	-0.03	-0.13	-0.00	7	56%	-0.05	3	-0.11	2	50%	-0.01

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Arron Afflalo	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.2,0.2,0.25,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.25,0.25,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.4	0.40	0.22	0.17	-0.02	19	73%	0.40	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Andre Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,0.01,-0.04,-0.08,-0.02,0.06,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.01	0.20	0.02	12	50%	0.23	1	-0.04	6	100%	0.08
Al Harrington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,0.09,0.09,0.26,0.23,0.23,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.04	0.06	-0.03	19	55%	0.18	2	-0.05	4	75%	0.00
Jordan Hamilton	0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.06	0.03	0.00	9	61%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kenneth Faried	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.03	0.00	10	44%	0.03	0	0.00	7	57%	-0.06
JaVale McGee	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	7	37%	-0.03	0	0.00	5	20%	-0.12
Corey Brewer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.06	-0.04	-0.01	4	20%	-0.05	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Ty Lawson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.09	-0.02	-0.01	8	12%	-0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kosta Koufos	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.07	-0.03	0.00	4	25%	-0.08	1	-0.03	4	25%	-0.06

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.8	2.5	30.0	15.6	29.2	2.0	34.1	138.3
league avg	25.5	2.3	29.8	14.2	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +58.8%

PHX -14.0%

PHX -29.1%

DEN +33.6%

DEN +0.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	PHX	DEN	NBA	PHX	DEN	NBA
this game	14.6	16.3	15.6	105.3	112.9	102.8
season	15.0	14.5		104.7	107.5
opponent	15.8	15.7		104.5	104.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
PHX	13.4	14.3	13.2	17.6	14.6
DEN	15.4	17.0	16.8	15.8	16.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Phoenix Suns
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Markieff Morris	31	31	0.33	-0.83	1.15	0.24	3	-9	12	15.3	14.2	1.15	16.9	16.0	0.92
Josh Childress	26	27	0.18	-0.68	0.85	0.23	-2	-4	2	16.7	13.7	3.01	16.9	16.0	0.94
Robin Lopez	26	24	0.15	-0.65	0.80	0.30	-5	-1	-4	16.4	13.9	2.53	16.7	16.1	0.61
Sebastian Telfair	24	23	0.10	-0.60	0.69	0.21	-4	-2	-2	17.0	13.7	3.23	16.0	16.4	-0.40
Michael Redd	29	29	0.02	-0.52	0.54	0.25	-8	2	-10	17.2	13.4	3.84	16.3	16.2	0.03
Shannon Brown	70	69	-0.58	0.08	-0.66	-0.61	1	-7	8	13.5	17.6	-4.12	16.2	16.4	-0.16
Steve Nash	70	70	-0.60	0.10	-0.69	-0.54	-2	-4	2	13.7	17.0	-3.23	16.4	16.0	0.40
Jared Dudley	63	61	-0.62	0.12	-0.73	-0.53	-3	-3	0	13.6	16.5	-2.88	16.0	16.7	-0.75
Marcin Gortat	68	69	-0.65	0.15	-0.80	-0.62	-1	-5	4	13.9	16.4	-2.53	16.1	16.7	-0.61
Channing Frye	63	62	-0.83	0.33	-1.15	-0.56	-9	3	-12	14.2	15.3	-1.15	16.0	16.9	-0.92

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ty Lawson	69	70	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.57	0	6	-6	16.0	17.0	-1.06	13.4	17.8	-4.35
Arron Afflalo	81	82	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.23	11	-5	16	16.0	17.8	-1.81	14.7	13.5	1.21
Kenneth Faried	60	61	0.51	-0.01	0.51	0.39	4	2	2	15.7	17.3	-1.67	13.7	16.2	-2.56
Al Harrington	53	54	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.25	7	-1	8	16.8	15.6	1.20	15.4	13.3	2.09
Kosta Koufos	36	36	0.42	0.08	0.33	-0.05	16	-10	26	16.0	16.4	-0.47	14.9	14.3	0.59
Jordan Hamilton	38	37	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.04	6	0	6	14.7	17.3	-2.57	13.1	15.5	-2.43
Andre Miller	60	62	0.18	0.32	-0.13	0.36	-6	12	-18	17.4	14.1	3.31	15.3	13.2	2.12
Corey Brewer	31	31	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	-0.22	7	-1	8	17.1	15.9	1.21	17.0	13.4	3.60
JaVale McGee	37	37	-0.38	0.88	-1.26	0.06	-15	21	-36	16.8	15.9	0.83	14.4	14.7	-0.29

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.49,0.53,0.57,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.41,0.42,0.34,0.36,0.4,0.42,0.35,0.44,0.56,0.63,0.66,0.61,0.56,0.49,0.5,0.57,0.57,0.67,0.7,0.76,0.77,0.68,0.76,0.59,0.52,0.48,0.62,0.66,0.79,0.67,0.53,0.36,0.29,0.22,0.24,0.29,0.41,0.69,1
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 102, ORL 105	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.48,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.54,0.46,0.4,0.42,0.4,0.47,0.44,0.53,0.64,0.54,0.51,0.53,0.44,0.5,0.57,0.57,0.61,0.64,0.64,0.74,0.71,0.59,0.66,0.56,0.52,0.5,0.43,0.52,0.53,0.47,0.53,0.46,0.54,0.38,0.28,0.55,0.73,1	89.7%
ORL 106, LAL 109	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.47,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.44,0.42,0.42,0.43,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.47,0.49,0.44,0.49,0.56,0.56,0.59,0.56,0.51,0.57,0.66,0.66,0.69,0.64,0.68,0.68,0.59,0.59,0.59,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.57,0.67,0.63,0.36,0.53,0.34,0.53,0.37,0.67,0.73,1	89.6%
SAC 90, MEM 91	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.58,0.58,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.42,0.44,0.45,0.42,0.39,0.44,0.42,0.46,0.42,0.49,0.59,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.6,0.55,0.55,0.6,0.48,0.44,0.6,0.54,0.66,0.62,0.53,0.37,0.3,0.19,0.14,0.1,0.22,0.45,0.58,1	89.3%