NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Charlotte Bobcats	90		Excitement	7.7 [239]		MVP	Brandon Jennings (MIL): +9.9%
Milwaukee Bucks	95		Comeback	2.0 [584]		LVP	Kemba Walker (CHA): -40.0%

Charlotte Bobcats
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Eduardo Najera	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bismack Biyombo	-0.02	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02	0.05	-0.07	0.01	9	61%	-0.01	1	-0.02	5	40%	-0.11
DJ White	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	3	33%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Byron Mullens	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04	0.09	-0.11	0.02	23	65%	0.18	4	-0.22	2	100%	0.02
Cory Higgins	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tyrus Thomas	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Matt Carroll	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.08	-0.02	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Gerald Henderson	-0.12	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.07	-0.05	0.00	13	44%	-0.01	3	-0.11	6	100%	0.04
Derrick Brown	-0.15	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.03	-0.12	0.00	8	52%	0.02	3	-0.17	5	20%	-0.07
Kemba Walker	-0.40	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.25,-0.25,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.34,-0.38,-0.4	-0.20	-0.21	-0.01	26	31%	-0.26	4	-0.14	6	83%	0.03

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brandon Jennings	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.06	0.03	-0.01	17	53%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Beno Udrih	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.01	-0.00	3	62%	0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Mike Dunleavy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.01	13	50%	0.05	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.02
Shaun Livingston	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	5	40%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ekpe Udoh	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.02	-0.01	7	50%	0.07	2	-0.08	4	75%	0.00
Jon Brockman	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	4	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jon Leuer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Larry Sanders	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.03	0.01	4	50%	-0.01	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Monta Ellis	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.05,-0.17,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.02	0.01	21	49%	0.05	4	-0.11	9	78%	0.04
Ersan Ilyasova	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.2,-0.2,-0.21,-0.21	-0.21	-0.08	-0.13	0.01	15	36%	-0.09	2	-0.13	3	33%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.1	1.8	26.2	15.4	24.6	2.6	37.2	133.9
league avg	25.5	2.3	29.8	14.2	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +19.8%

MIL +9.0%

CHA -15.7%

MIL +37.8%

CHA -0.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHA	MIL	NBA	CHA	MIL	NBA
this game	16.5	12.8	15.6	90.9	96.9	102.8
season	16.3	14.6		94.1	103.8
opponent	15.6	15.0		103.4	108.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHA	14.9	16.3	17.9	16.8	16.5
MIL	14.5	13.7	11.6	11.3	12.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Charlotte Bobcats
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eduardo Najera	5	4	-0.04	-0.46	0.41	0.02	-2	-3	1	16.4	16.5	-0.07	18.5	12.5	5.99
Kemba Walker	84	84	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	-0.37	7	-12	19	16.1	18.5	-2.44	12.8	12.2	0.63
Gerald Henderson	84	84	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	-0.37	7	-12	19	16.1	18.5	-2.44	12.8	12.2	0.63
Tyrus Thomas	27	27	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	0.01	-7	2	-9	16.9	16.3	0.53	13.1	12.6	0.54
Byron Mullens	89	89	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	-0.39	6	-11	17	16.1	19.8	-3.71	12.6	14.4	-1.86
Matt Carroll	18	17	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.01	-9	4	-13	19.8	15.7	4.12	13.4	12.6	0.72
DJ White	29	27	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	0.10	-13	8	-21	16.1	16.6	-0.51	14.4	12.1	2.23
Bismack Biyombo	72	73	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.39	3	-8	11	16.9	15.3	1.56	12.2	14.4	-2.15
Cory Higgins	15	14	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	0.02	-12	7	-19	18.5	16.1	2.44	12.2	12.8	-0.63
Derrick Brown	72	71	-0.53	0.03	-0.55	-0.38	-5	0	-5	16.1	17.4	-1.35	12.2	14.2	-2.03

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mike Dunleavy	62	63	0.48	0.02	0.47	0.19	10	-5	15	12.9	12.6	0.27	17.3	15.0	2.35
Monta Ellis	86	87	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.28	4	1	3	12.5	14.7	-2.27	16.0	20.1	-4.12
Beno Udrih	24	24	0.36	0.14	0.23	0.01	12	-7	19	12.9	12.7	0.21	21.2	14.9	6.32
Ersan Ilyasova	78	78	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.31	0	5	-5	12.9	12.3	0.51	15.8	19.0	-3.28
Ekpe Udoh	64	66	0.30	0.20	0.09	0.41	-4	9	-13	12.7	12.9	-0.24	16.6	16.3	0.29
Jon Brockman	11	10	0.20	0.30	-0.10	-0.09	10	-5	15	17.8	12.1	5.70	18.5	16.2	2.26
Brandon Jennings	78	79	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.41	-8	13	-21	12.8	12.5	0.32	15.5	20.4	-4.99
Larry Sanders	20	21	0.13	0.37	-0.23	0.08	2	3	-1	10.0	13.4	-3.40	17.7	16.1	1.53
Shaun Livingston	44	44	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.17	-3	8	-11	13.0	12.6	0.36	15.4	17.3	-1.86
Jon Leuer	23	23	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.00	2	3	-1	12.6	12.8	-0.25	16.6	16.4	0.13

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.45,0.46,0.49,0.44,0.39,0.37,0.37,0.38,0.47,0.47,0.46,0.53,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.58,0.49,0.56,0.48,0.46,0.49,0.54,0.5,0.57,0.66,0.72,0.73,0.75,0.79,0.9,0.79,0.66,0.66,0.71,0.66,0.7,0.88,0.89,0.85,0.75,0.71,0.73,0.53,0.71,0.91,0.96,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 100, CHI 105	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.53,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.43,0.43,0.45,0.55,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.58,0.53,0.56,0.58,0.49,0.41,0.5,0.45,0.55,0.67,0.78,0.84,0.84,0.87,0.84,0.79,0.74,0.78,0.81,0.78,0.82,0.8,0.84,0.79,0.71,0.72,0.62,0.84,0.85,0.84,1	92.5%
DAL 94, HOU 99	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.4,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.38,0.31,0.32,0.35,0.4,0.46,0.48,0.49,0.53,0.58,0.58,0.56,0.56,0.52,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.5,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.61,0.61,0.65,0.62,0.69,0.69,0.67,0.6,0.62,0.78,0.79,0.76,0.68,0.69,0.71,0.78,0.69,0.89,0.9,0.97,1	91.6%
WAS 97, MIL 100	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.48,0.46,0.5,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.4,0.42,0.44,0.52,0.49,0.47,0.42,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.59,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.67,0.68,0.8,0.7,0.73,0.63,0.6,0.66,0.74,0.79,0.8,0.72,0.74,0.89,0.83,0.61,0.72,0.86,0.73,1	91.5%