NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Memphis Grizzlies	94		Excitement	7.1 [326]		MVP	O.J. Mayo (MEM): +36.7%
Oklahoma City Thunder	88		Comeback	1.6 [212]		LVP	Rudy Gay (MEM): -12.1%

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
O.J. Mayo	0.37	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.19,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.23,0.2,0.2,0.19,0.17,0.37	0.05	0.27	-0.04	19	51%	0.37	0	0.00	5	100%	0.03
Marc Gasol	0.09	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09	0.01	0.08	0.00	13	48%	0.12	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Jeremy Pargo	0.05	0,0,0,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.03	0.00	7	71%	0.11	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Tony Allen	0.05	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.05	0.02	11	54%	0.07	1	-0.02	6	83%	0.01
Quincy Pondexter	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.01	0.00	3	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marreese Speights	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.02,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.03	-0.01	8	53%	0.08	2	-0.11	1	100%	0.01
Gilbert Arenas	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Zach Randolph	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	9	40%	-0.02	1	-0.02	7	86%	0.03
Rudy Gay	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.07	-0.05	-0.00	15	35%	-0.10	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.03

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Serge Ibaka	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.07	0.06	0.01	9	63%	0.13	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.04
James Harden	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.06	-0.01	-0.00	9	61%	0.06	0	0.00	5	60%	-0.02
Nick Collison	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.04	0.00	4	100%	0.13	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Nazr Mohammed	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	2	17%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Kendrick Perkins	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	4	70%	0.04	3	-0.08	2	50%	-0.01
Thabo Sefolosha	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	6	50%	-0.00	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Russell Westbrook	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.13,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.21,-0.21,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.15,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.06	-0.06	-0.10	0.04	0.00	16	45%	0.09	5	-0.16	10	90%	0.08
Kevin Durant	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.03,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1	-0.10	-0.03	-0.07	0.01	20	48%	-0.01	3	-0.10	4	75%	0.02
Derek Fisher	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.09	-0.02	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.0	1.8	30.6	16.0	23.0	1.8	37.8	135.8
league avg	25.5	2.3	29.8	14.2	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MEM +16.1%

MEM +7.2%

MEM +10.6%

MEM +13.6%

MEM +2.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MEM	OKC	NBA	MEM	OKC	NBA
this game	16.4	14.3	15.6	100.0	94.6	102.8
season	15.6	14.7		102.0	107.9
opponent	15.8	15.7		101.9	100.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MEM	15.9	15.7	16.6	17.7	16.4
OKC	12.9	14.3	16.9	13.6	14.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tony Allen	80	78	0.78	-0.28	1.06	0.40	13	-7	20	16.4	16.5	-0.06	14.6	13.1	1.52
O.J. Mayo	61	59	0.69	-0.19	0.88	0.43	9	-3	12	15.9	17.4	-1.51	14.1	14.7	-0.57
Marc Gasol	79	79	0.49	0.01	0.49	0.32	6	0	6	16.5	15.9	0.61	14.6	12.9	1.67
Zach Randolph	54	52	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.29	4	2	2	16.4	16.5	-0.05	13.8	15.1	-1.30
Rudy Gay	71	70	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.14	8	-2	10	16.5	16.2	0.36	14.2	14.8	-0.64
Marreese Speights	42	41	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.00	4	2	2	16.6	16.3	0.27	14.3	14.4	-0.09
Quincy Pondexter	10	11	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.07	-4	10	-14	15.1	16.6	-1.51	11.9	14.7	-2.76
Gilbert Arenas	36	38	-0.10	0.60	-0.70	0.08	-6	12	-18	16.3	16.5	-0.23	15.0	13.9	1.15
Jeremy Pargo	37	37	-0.21	0.71	-0.92	-0.10	-4	10	-14	17.3	15.9	1.45	14.8	14.0	0.78

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Thabo Sefolosha	47	47	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.02	-5	-1	-4	14.7	14.0	0.68	16.7	16.2	0.43
Derek Fisher	30	29	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	-0.15	-1	-5	4	15.1	14.0	1.17	15.6	16.8	-1.29
Nick Collison	38	39	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	-0.06	-6	0	-6	15.0	13.9	1.11	17.1	16.0	1.03
Serge Ibaka	55	55	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	-0.28	1	-7	8	13.8	15.1	-1.33	17.0	15.7	1.29
Russell Westbrook	70	72	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	-0.19	-2	-4	2	14.0	15.3	-1.33	16.7	15.6	1.06
Nazr Mohammed	23	22	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	-0.13	-4	-2	-2	15.3	14.0	1.33	15.6	16.7	-1.06
Kendrick Perkins	56	59	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	-0.14	-5	-1	-4	13.8	15.2	-1.36	16.1	17.1	-1.02
James Harden	63	64	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.32	-3	-3	0	14.1	14.9	-0.82	16.1	17.1	-1.01
Kevin Durant	83	83	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.32	-5	-1	-4	14.5	13.1	1.39	16.5	15.9	0.61

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.43,0.43,0.42,0.44,0.45,0.57,0.6,0.57,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.58,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.58,0.46,0.46,0.51,0.52,0.42,0.44,0.42,0.36,0.42,0.32,0.35,0.34,0.4,0.4,0.3,0.3,0.15,0.17,0.24,0.41,0.24,0.28,0.17,0.04,0.03,0.09,0
Game		Similarity Score
DET 103, CHA 92	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.41,0.4,0.45,0.41,0.47,0.53,0.64,0.62,0.57,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.49,0.56,0.53,0.58,0.56,0.54,0.48,0.54,0.5,0.51,0.55,0.42,0.45,0.36,0.38,0.29,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.26,0.22,0.25,0.25,0.32,0.26,0.24,0.33,0.1,0.05,0.03,0,0	93.0%
SAS 100, DET 89	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.59,0.51,0.45,0.38,0.43,0.48,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.61,0.61,0.56,0.46,0.46,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.39,0.42,0.41,0.41,0.3,0.26,0.36,0.3,0.26,0.21,0.33,0.21,0.31,0.35,0.13,0.1,0.04,0.06,0,0	92.9%
ORL 102, WAS 91	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.45,0.44,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.53,0.57,0.55,0.61,0.57,0.49,0.47,0.58,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.41,0.5,0.46,0.38,0.42,0.39,0.48,0.45,0.41,0.41,0.31,0.3,0.32,0.19,0.22,0.21,0.2,0.15,0.3,0.24,0.18,0.07,0.22,0.16,0.02,0	92.9%