NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	115		Excitement	9.5 [73]		MVP	JaVale McGee (DEN): +53.4%
Denver Nuggets	116		Comeback	22.5 [70]		LVP	Kenneth Faried (DEN): -18.6%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jonas Jerebko	0.28	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28	0.08	0.20	-0.01	8	63%	0.28	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Ben Gordon	0.25	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.08,0.12,0.21,0.21,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.2,0.2,0.26,0.32,0.36,0.33,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.43,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.37,0.37,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.49,0.49,0.25	0.36	-0.07	0.03	22	82%	0.29	2	-0.04	11	91%	0.03
Brandon Knight	0.22	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.02,0.07,0.03,0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.07	0.15	-0.00	9	73%	0.29	2	-0.07	4	50%	-0.05
Greg Monroe	0.14	0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.01	0.11	-0.02	9	65%	0.20	3	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01
Tayshaun Prince	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01	-0.03	0.02	-0.01	9	33%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Damien Wilkins	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.01	5	45%	0.00	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Ben Wallace	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.07
Jason Maxiell	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	6	50%	0.01	2	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01
Will Bynum	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.02,-0.05,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.03	-0.08	0.01	11	40%	-0.07	1	-0.05	3	67%	-0.01

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
JaVale McGee	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.53	0.53	0.05	0.48	0.00	11	60%	0.55	1	-0.01	3	33%	-0.05
Ty Lawson	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.29,0.36,0.36,0.3,0.3	0.30	0.16	0.12	-0.02	12	96%	0.43	4	-0.13	2	50%	-0.01
Arron Afflalo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.11,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.23	0.23	0.16	0.07	0.00	12	77%	0.29	2	-0.06	6	83%	-0.17
Al Harrington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.09	0.03	0.04	10	70%	0.11	1	-0.04	3	67%	0.02
Timofey Mozgov	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.06	0.01	0.00	5	75%	0.07	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Corey Brewer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	-0.05	-0.07	6	36%	0.05	2	-0.10	2	50%	-0.01
Wilson Chandler	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.17,-0.1,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.07	-0.08	-0.00	11	46%	-0.06	4	-0.10	2	100%	0.03
Andre Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.09	-0.10	-0.01	2	0%	-0.06	3	-0.12	0	0%	0.00
Kenneth Faried	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0.04,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.19	-0.02	-0.16	0.01	10	55%	0.00	3	-0.19	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.8	1.8	28.1	15.6	27.4	1.5	35.9	136.1
league avg	25.5	2.3	29.8	14.2	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +33.3%

DEN +7.0%

DEN +51.8%

DET -44.5%

DEN +2.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	DEN	NBA	DET	DEN	NBA
this game	14.6	14.7	15.6	117.3	118.4	102.8
season	16.3	14.5		99.5	107.5
opponent	15.8	15.4		104.5	104.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	18.0	12.6	12.5	16.0	14.6
DEN	14.7	17.4	13.7	13.4	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jason Maxiell	46	43	0.18	-0.68	0.85	0.12	2	-3	5	14.0	15.2	-1.29	15.6	14.1	1.53
Ben Wallace	41	41	0.01	-0.51	0.53	-0.25	9	-10	19	13.2	15.7	-2.49	14.5	14.9	-0.40
Will Bynum	47	47	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.12	0	-1	1	13.8	15.4	-1.64	14.4	15.0	-0.57
Damien Wilkins	38	40	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	-0.11	-4	3	-7	15.1	14.4	0.71	14.5	14.9	-0.33
Ben Gordon	83	83	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.55	10	-11	21	14.5	15.3	-0.82	15.3	11.9	3.32
Tayshaun Prince	60	58	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	-0.36	1	-2	3	14.4	15.1	-0.71	14.9	14.5	0.33
Greg Monroe	57	57	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	-0.22	-8	7	-15	15.7	13.2	2.49	14.9	14.5	0.40
Brandon Knight	66	66	-0.62	0.12	-0.74	-0.27	-12	11	-23	15.4	13.1	2.35	14.3	15.6	-1.31
Jonas Jerebko	52	55	-0.68	0.18	-0.85	-0.59	-3	2	-5	15.2	14.0	1.29	14.1	15.6	-1.53

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Al Harrington	54	51	0.86	-0.36	1.22	0.74	4	-3	7	13.7	16.0	-2.36	14.3	15.0	-0.69
Arron Afflalo	71	70	0.82	-0.32	1.13	0.32	17	-16	33	14.3	15.9	-1.63	15.1	13.5	1.55
JaVale McGee	52	51	0.62	-0.12	0.73	0.56	2	-1	3	13.8	15.8	-2.00	14.2	15.1	-0.89
Wilson Chandler	65	65	0.40	0.10	0.31	0.40	0	1	-1	15.2	13.8	1.49	15.1	13.7	1.47
Ty Lawson	74	74	0.32	0.18	0.13	0.46	-5	6	-11	15.6	12.1	3.47	15.1	13.3	1.79
Andre Miller	43	41	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.25	-6	7	-13	14.8	14.7	0.08	13.7	15.3	-1.61
Corey Brewer	43	45	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	0.03	-3	4	-7	13.5	15.7	-2.20	13.4	15.7	-2.30
Timofey Mozgov	40	42	-0.10	0.60	-0.70	-0.07	-1	2	-3	15.8	14.0	1.87	15.4	14.1	1.25
Kenneth Faried	48	51	-0.42	0.92	-1.34	-0.33	-3	4	-7	15.8	13.8	2.01	14.8	14.5	0.29

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.58,0.6,0.62,0.66,0.68,0.76,0.75,0.76,0.82,0.83,0.85,0.88,0.91,0.9,0.83,0.83,0.76,0.71,0.69,0.69,0.72,0.73,0.63,0.66,0.58,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.41,0.35,0.31,0.33,0.28,0.5,0.48,0.66,0.42,0.53,0.64,0.6,0.67,0.55,0.45,0.14,0.04,1
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 89, DEN 90	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.54,0.55,0.53,0.55,0.61,0.7,0.71,0.73,0.77,0.79,0.74,0.73,0.73,0.73,0.63,0.73,0.73,0.69,0.67,0.64,0.63,0.62,0.66,0.64,0.7,0.58,0.48,0.35,0.38,0.56,0.37,0.42,0.54,0.48,0.48,0.43,0.53,0.36,0.36,0.33,0.53,0.52,0.32,0.16,1	87.8%
PHX 109, TOR 111	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.52,0.5,0.53,0.5,0.54,0.59,0.68,0.69,0.67,0.73,0.74,0.78,0.76,0.79,0.79,0.76,0.76,0.71,0.69,0.67,0.69,0.78,0.73,0.65,0.63,0.55,0.64,0.55,0.58,0.55,0.69,0.63,0.52,0.4,0.46,0.52,0.62,0.42,0.53,0.86,0.59,0.72,0.75,0.64,0.33,0.42,1	87.1%
LAC 90, SAC 92	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.61,0.6,0.61,0.67,0.71,0.75,0.77,0.81,0.78,0.74,0.72,0.75,0.73,0.63,0.7,0.71,0.75,0.75,0.83,0.8,0.73,0.63,0.54,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.45,0.38,0.31,0.37,0.3,0.22,0.46,0.48,0.75,0.57,0.53,0.59,0.59,0.34,0.64,0.55,0.53,0.58,1	87.1%