NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	91		Excitement	5.5 [576]		MVP	Kenneth Faried (DEN): +19.3%
Denver Nuggets	98		Comeback	1.1 [889]		LVP	Andre Miller (DEN): -16.6%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Paul Pierce	0.13	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0,0,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.10	0.04	0.01	17	59%	0.13	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Kevin Garnett	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.04,0.06,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.08,0.08	0.11	-0.01	0.01	12	79%	0.16	3	-0.08	4	100%	0.03
Avery Bradley	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	0.00	0.01	4	67%	0.05	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Marquis Daniels	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.03	-0.00	0.01	5	62%	0.04	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.00
Keyon Dooling	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mickael Pietrus	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	3	33%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Greg Stiemsma	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	0.01	5	40%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Bass	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09	-0.09	0.01	0.00	9	30%	-0.04	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Ray Allen	-0.14	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.14	-0.09	-0.07	-0.02	10	33%	-0.09	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.00
Rajon Rondo	-0.16	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.14,-0.14,-0.12,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.09	-0.02	0.05	11	55%	-0.01	6	-0.15	0	0%	0.00

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kenneth Faried	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.19	0.19	0.14	0.07	0.01	5	100%	0.24	2	-0.05	8	100%	0.07
Ty Lawson	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	-0.03	0.11	0.00	5	58%	0.13	3	-0.05	2	100%	0.00
Danilo Gallinari	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.08	-0.02	0.01	11	67%	0.12	2	-0.07	8	87%	0.02
Corey Brewer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.02	-0.00	5	57%	0.04	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Kosta Koufos	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	0.01	0.02	5	55%	0.04	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.01
Timofey Mozgov	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.00	-0.00	6	67%	0.05	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Rudy Fernandez	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	3	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Arron Afflalo	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.03	-0.01	14	48%	0.03	1	-0.05	3	67%	-0.00
Al Harrington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	12	39%	-0.07	2	-0.04	4	50%	-0.01
Andre Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.19	-0.00	-0.03	8	12%	-0.07	5	-0.10	1	0%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.1	2.4	30.3	15.8	24.1	1.5	34.2	132.4
league avg	25.5	2.3	29.8	14.2	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +23.8%

DEN +7.9%

DEN +30.3%

BOS -13.0%

DEN +1.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	DEN	NBA	BOS	DEN	NBA
this game	14.9	15.3	15.6	94.8	103.2	102.8
season	15.5	14.5		99.4	107.5
opponent	15.8	16.2		104.5	97.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	14.5	16.2	14.9	14.1	14.9
DEN	12.7	15.8	15.7	17.2	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Greg Stiemsma	18	19	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.07	1	-8	9	15.4	14.8	0.61	13.3	15.7	-2.43
Keyon Dooling	11	11	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	0.03	-4	-3	-1	16.5	14.7	1.86	15.6	15.2	0.42
Marquis Daniels	39	38	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	-0.34	8	-15	23	14.9	14.9	0.09	16.4	14.5	1.97
Avery Bradley	29	28	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.14	1	-8	9	16.3	14.3	2.08	14.6	15.5	-0.93
Paul Pierce	63	63	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	0.01	-7	0	-7	14.5	15.7	-1.17	14.8	16.1	-1.30
Mickael Pietrus	25	25	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	0.01	-8	1	-9	16.7	14.3	2.41	14.2	15.6	-1.39
Ray Allen	84	82	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	-0.31	-2	-5	3	14.7	16.5	-1.83	15.8	11.6	4.23
Kevin Garnett	64	64	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.18	-7	0	-7	14.7	15.2	-0.53	15.9	13.9	1.97
Rajon Rondo	88	88	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.33	-3	-4	1	14.5	18.7	-4.20	15.2	15.4	-0.18
Brandon Bass	59	57	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.14	-14	7	-21	14.4	15.7	-1.27	14.8	16.0	-1.23

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ty Lawson	70	69	0.41	0.09	0.33	0.21	7	0	7	15.6	14.3	1.28	14.6	15.7	-1.07
Arron Afflalo	60	60	0.41	0.09	0.31	0.11	10	-3	13	15.4	15.0	0.42	14.5	15.6	-1.10
Kenneth Faried	47	47	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.14	9	-2	11	15.1	15.4	-0.27	15.0	14.8	0.25
Danilo Gallinari	65	64	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.10	10	-3	13	15.3	15.2	0.04	14.3	16.1	-1.84
Al Harrington	54	54	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.31	-1	8	-9	15.9	14.4	1.45	15.2	14.5	0.66
Kosta Koufos	28	29	0.23	0.27	-0.03	-0.03	9	-2	11	13.6	15.9	-2.30	15.9	14.4	1.48
Timofey Mozgov	40	41	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.04	4	3	1	15.2	15.3	-0.02	14.0	15.5	-1.48
Andre Miller	44	45	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.21	-2	9	-11	15.1	15.4	-0.36	15.8	14.1	1.66
Corey Brewer	32	35	0.10	0.40	-0.31	0.21	-4	11	-15	14.8	15.5	-0.73	15.7	14.5	1.20
Rudy Fernandez	35	36	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	0.18	-7	14	-21	15.5	15.1	0.40	14.9	14.9	0.08

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.55,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.59,0.55,0.57,0.6,0.64,0.65,0.66,0.64,0.6,0.71,0.72,0.74,0.68,0.66,0.74,0.77,0.73,0.84,0.77,0.88,0.87,0.78,0.9,0.94,0.93,0.95,0.95,0.9,0.87,0.92,0.92,0.89,0.89,0.9,0.92,0.91,0.78,0.69,0.85,0.95,0.83,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHH 105, NYK 110	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.57,0.56,0.61,0.55,0.61,0.62,0.6,0.6,0.68,0.66,0.66,0.69,0.71,0.69,0.74,0.66,0.7,0.74,0.82,0.78,0.86,0.84,0.88,0.92,0.93,0.92,0.89,0.95,0.92,0.9,0.94,0.9,0.9,0.85,0.94,0.89,0.91,0.94,0.91,0.9,0.86,0.84,0.95,0.74,1	94.6%
IND 77, CLE 80	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.51,0.6,0.61,0.59,0.62,0.55,0.59,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.69,0.69,0.76,0.74,0.79,0.78,0.74,0.75,0.78,0.84,0.74,0.82,0.87,0.86,0.9,0.89,0.91,0.86,0.9,0.89,0.82,0.85,0.87,0.88,0.89,0.88,0.9,0.91,0.88,0.76,0.71,0.94,0.87,1	94.5%
NOH 94, POR 95	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.58,0.57,0.53,0.59,0.59,0.61,0.63,0.6,0.66,0.65,0.62,0.62,0.69,0.73,0.69,0.68,0.68,0.71,0.78,0.8,0.75,0.8,0.86,0.84,0.77,0.78,0.88,0.91,0.93,0.92,0.92,0.94,0.94,0.92,0.92,0.92,0.86,0.87,0.87,0.81,0.83,0.81,0.72,0.76,0.84,1	94.4%