NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	114		Excitement	11.1 [26]		MVP	Rudy Gay (MEM): +40.8%
Memphis Grizzlies	110		Comeback	1.6 [160]		LVP	Mike Conley (MEM): -38.0%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gary Forbes	0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.18,0.25,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.18	0.11	0.06	-0.01	9	69%	0.32	1	-0.14	11	64%	-0.06
Jerryd Bayless	0.09	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.14,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.15,0.15,-0.01,0.08,0.19,0.09	0.10	-0.00	0.02	17	65%	0.29	3	-0.20	9	78%	0.05
Amir Johnson	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09	0.06	0.03	0.00	4	90%	0.11	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.02
James Johnson	0.06	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.02	0.03	-0.00	8	82%	0.17	5	-0.11	1	100%	0.01
Ed Davis	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Linas Kleiza	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.01	-0.00	5	20%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Gray	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Jamaal Magloire	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	0.03	3	-0.10	2	50%	-0.01
DeMar DeRozan	-0.10	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1	-0.01	-0.10	-0.01	16	50%	-0.03	2	-0.06	4	100%	0.02
Andrea Bargnani	-0.18	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.18,-0.18	-0.13	-0.06	-0.01	17	42%	-0.08	5	-0.11	9	89%	0.06

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rudy Gay	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.41	0.41	0.04	0.37	-0.01	20	59%	0.52	4	-0.12	4	75%	0.01
Zach Randolph	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.14,0.08,0.08,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.12	0.07	0.01	14	60%	0.18	0	0.00	14	50%	-0.07
Hamed Haddadi	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.02	0.06	0.00	0	50%	0.08	1	-0.04	4	50%	-0.05
Dante Cunningham	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	5	43%	-0.00	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.04
Tony Allen	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.04	0.02	-0.01	1	50%	0.04	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Marc Gasol	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.06	-0.07	0.02	17	64%	0.06	4	-0.09	10	60%	-0.06
Marreese Speights	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.01	2	17%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
O.J. Mayo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.21	-0.21	-0.05	-0.16	0.00	10	45%	-0.00	3	-0.21	2	100%	0.03
Quincy Pondexter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.16,-0.07,-0.19,-0.33	-0.33	-0.08	-0.25	0.00	6	17%	-0.24	1	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Mike Conley	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.38	-0.38	-0.09	-0.28	0.01	7	35%	-0.11	3	-0.27	9	67%	-0.23

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	26.3	2.6	32.4	15.6	28.4	2.0	52.7	1.8	26.6	188.3
league avg	25.5	2.3	29.8	14.2	26.9	2.3	33.6	1.9	17.4	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +6.2%

TOR +23.9%

TOR +15.0%

TOR +5.0%

MEM -0.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	MEM	NBA	TOR	MEM	NBA
this game	16.6	12.8	15.6	105.6	100.9	102.8
season	16.5	15.6		98.9	102.0
opponent	15.7	15.2		100.1	102.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
TOR	18.2	18.2	16.2	15.8	12.8	16.6
MEM	13.9	12.9	14.4	11.9	9.8	12.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
DeMar DeRozan	93	96	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.43	6	-2	8	16.4	17.5	-1.11	12.7	12.9	-0.19
Andrea Bargnani	84	84	0.45	0.05	0.41	0.28	6	-2	8	15.7	19.6	-3.92	12.3	14.2	-1.83
Amir Johnson	56	56	0.31	0.19	0.11	0.28	1	3	-2	15.8	17.4	-1.56	12.0	13.5	-1.47
James Johnson	58	58	0.29	0.21	0.07	0.38	-3	7	-10	16.6	16.6	-0.05	13.1	12.4	0.64
Aaron Gray	28	29	0.28	0.22	0.05	0.01	9	-5	14	18.1	16.0	2.07	15.1	11.9	3.25
Gary Forbes	47	50	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.01	8	-4	12	16.2	16.8	-0.60	11.2	14.1	-2.90
Jerryd Bayless	90	91	0.22	0.28	-0.07	0.30	-3	7	-10	16.0	19.2	-3.18	12.8	12.6	0.24
Linas Kleiza	37	35	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.06	4	0	4	18.3	15.7	2.62	13.7	12.3	1.33
Jamaal Magloire	28	27	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	0.08	-3	7	-10	17.6	16.2	1.44	13.6	12.5	1.07
Ed Davis	19	19	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	0.08	-5	9	-14	19.6	15.9	3.71	13.4	12.6	0.81

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rudy Gay	79	80	0.27	-0.77	1.04	0.09	6	-10	16	13.4	11.0	2.42	16.4	17.1	-0.72
Hamed Haddadi	9	10	-0.03	-0.47	0.43	-0.06	1	-5	6	12.6	12.8	-0.21	18.2	16.4	1.79
Zach Randolph	53	53	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.31	7	-11	18	12.3	13.2	-0.88	14.9	18.2	-3.31
O.J. Mayo	71	71	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.35	6	-10	16	11.8	14.5	-2.72	15.7	18.2	-2.42
Marreese Speights	16	17	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	-0.01	-6	2	-8	14.4	12.5	1.90	17.9	16.3	1.55
Tony Allen	37	38	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	0.07	-12	8	-20	13.6	12.3	1.28	18.1	15.7	2.36
Dante Cunningham	42	41	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	-0.06	-11	7	-18	13.0	12.6	0.44	18.8	15.2	3.56
Marc Gasol	96	93	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.34	-2	-2	0	12.8	12.6	0.16	16.5	17.2	-0.73
Mike Conley	94	89	-0.57	0.07	-0.65	-0.37	-7	3	-10	12.9	11.7	1.18	16.4	17.2	-0.77
Quincy Pondexter	48	48	-0.64	0.14	-0.78	-0.58	-2	-2	0	11.8	13.5	-1.68	16.5	16.6	-0.10

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.5,0.52,0.52,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.46,0.46,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.37,0.37,0.41,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.5,0.4,0.34,0.25,0.19,0.21,0.19,0.17,0.24,0.34,0.3,0.28,0.38,0.3,0.21,0.17,0.08,0.21,0.2,0.13,0.14,0.07,0.03,0.02,0.54,0.53,0.36,0.55,0.28,0
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 107, SEA 99	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.6,0.58,0.57,0.58,0.59,0.57,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.52,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.33,0.44,0.37,0.39,0.44,0.46,0.39,0.46,0.42,0.34,0.37,0.31,0.27,0.22,0.22,0.16,0.11,0.15,0.13,0.25,0.15,0.22,0.12,0.06,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.46,0.25,0.45,0.43,0.08,0	90.8%
LAL 107, ORL 99	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.54,0.5,0.45,0.43,0.43,0.47,0.42,0.36,0.32,0.32,0.34,0.34,0.38,0.37,0.37,0.41,0.36,0.39,0.33,0.33,0.3,0.29,0.28,0.25,0.33,0.29,0.26,0.28,0.25,0.24,0.26,0.29,0.42,0.3,0.25,0.17,0.19,0.36,0.35,0.21,0.19,0.21,0.23,0.09,0.46,0.52,0.54,0.55,0.1,0	90.7%
ATL 99, CLE 97	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.41,0.5,0.45,0.43,0.41,0.43,0.4,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.42,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.39,0.33,0.37,0.45,0.36,0.27,0.35,0.34,0.35,0.38,0.34,0.26,0.28,0.22,0.2,0.26,0.2,0.16,0.17,0.2,0.31,0.39,0.17,0.1,0.05,0.54,0.69,0.55,0.43,0.16,0	90.5%