NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

New Orleans Hornets	108		Excitement	9.3 [88]		MVP	Trevor Ariza (NOH): +31.8%
Indiana Pacers	117		Comeback	4.0 [507]		LVP	Chris Kaman (NOH): -12.3%

New Orleans Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Trevor Ariza	0.32	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,0.02,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.34,0.39,0.34,0.32,0.32,0.32	0.09	0.24	0.01	15	66%	0.36	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.04
Solomon Jones	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.08	0.07	0.00	3	90%	0.15	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Gustavo Ayon	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.13,-0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07	-0.01	0.06	-0.02	7	56%	0.11	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.00
Xavier Henry	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.02	0.04	-0.00	3	56%	0.07	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.04
Marco Belinelli	0.05	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05	0.09	-0.02	0.02	11	62%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Lance Thomas	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Greivis Vasquez	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	-0.01	5	75%	0.08	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Al-Farouq Aminu	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.05	-0.02	0.01	3	25%	-0.05	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Jarrett Jack	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.04,-0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	0.01	-0.08	0.03	17	53%	-0.04	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.04
Chris Kaman	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.06	-0.09	-0.02	14	53%	-0.03	5	-0.10	4	25%	-0.07

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Darren Collison	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.24,0.24,0.24	0.24	0.09	0.17	0.02	11	72%	0.28	1	-0.04	3	33%	-0.07
Roy Hibbert	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.03,-0.03,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.14	0.01	0.02	17	65%	0.24	2	-0.10	12	67%	-0.07
A.J. Price	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.07	0.04	0.00	5	85%	0.14	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.03
David West	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.02	0.05	-0.00	12	57%	0.10	2	-0.03	4	100%	0.02
Danny Granger	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06,-0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	-0.05	0.11	-0.01	14	42%	0.14	2	-0.08	5	80%	-0.01
Lance Stephenson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.02	-0.00	3	67%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Foster	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Dahntay Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Paul George	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.06,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0,0,0,-0.13,-0.13,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.02	-0.05	0.00	20	50%	0.04	3	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Tyler Hansbrough	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.04	-0.07	0.00	5	33%	-0.07	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	23.2	2.4	31.6	15.7	25.0	1.5	38.2	1.8	13.9	153.3
league avg	25.5	2.3	29.8	14.2	26.9	2.3	33.6	1.9	17.4	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

IND +15.2%

IND +1.4%

IND +25.9%

NOH -4.8%

IND +12.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	NOH	IND	NBA	NOH	IND	NBA
this game	16.7	14.8	15.6	106.9	115.8	102.8
season	16.3	15.7		99.2	104.2
opponent	15.6	15.7		101.1	103.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
NOH	15.3	17.4	17.3	17.2	16.2	16.7
IND	15.3	16.9	14.0	14.1	12.5	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

New Orleans Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Lance Thomas	29	27	0.17	-0.67	0.84	-0.01	6	-15	21	16.3	16.9	-0.52	14.9	14.7	0.21
Xavier Henry	23	23	0.14	-0.64	0.79	0.12	1	-10	11	18.4	16.2	2.23	14.2	14.9	-0.72
Greivis Vasquez	38	37	0.03	-0.53	0.55	-0.06	3	-12	15	15.8	17.3	-1.48	16.7	13.7	3.05
Al-Farouq Aminu	34	32	0.01	-0.51	0.52	0.04	-1	-8	7	16.9	16.6	0.21	13.7	15.2	-1.50
Gustavo Ayon	51	53	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	-0.02	-4	-5	1	16.0	17.4	-1.36	15.9	13.6	2.31
Solomon Jones	47	47	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.19	-4	-5	1	17.3	16.2	1.05	14.3	15.2	-0.85
Jarrett Jack	63	64	-0.53	0.03	-0.55	-0.17	-12	3	-15	17.3	15.8	1.48	13.7	16.7	-3.05
Trevor Ariza	81	82	-0.57	0.07	-0.65	-0.31	-9	0	-9	16.4	18.0	-1.67	14.9	14.4	0.50
Chris Kaman	74	75	-0.64	0.14	-0.79	-0.23	-14	5	-19	17.1	15.7	1.38	14.2	16.3	-2.12
Marco Belinelli	65	65	-0.67	0.17	-0.84	-0.35	-11	2	-13	16.3	17.4	-1.14	15.4	13.7	1.63

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Roy Hibbert	74	73	0.72	-0.22	0.95	0.34	13	-4	17	15.0	14.1	0.90	16.3	17.7	-1.39
David West	73	74	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.28	11	-2	13	15.0	14.3	0.67	16.8	16.5	0.32
Danny Granger	78	77	0.57	-0.07	0.63	0.30	9	0	9	15.0	14.0	1.00	16.4	17.7	-1.25
Darren Collison	74	74	0.55	-0.04	0.59	0.19	12	-3	15	14.9	14.3	0.65	16.6	17.0	-0.39
Paul George	83	84	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.21	7	2	5	15.0	13.8	1.14	16.8	16.4	0.43
Lance Stephenson	18	17	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.02	2	7	-5	13.8	15.0	-1.14	16.4	16.8	-0.43
A.J. Price	27	27	-0.04	0.55	-0.59	0.04	-3	12	-15	14.3	14.9	-0.65	17.0	16.6	0.39
Dahntay Jones	23	24	-0.07	0.57	-0.63	-0.13	2	7	-5	14.0	15.0	-1.00	17.7	16.4	1.25
Tyler Hansbrough	31	30	-0.10	0.60	-0.71	-0.04	-2	11	-13	14.3	15.0	-0.74	17.3	16.5	0.79
Jeff Foster	24	25	-0.22	0.72	-0.93	-0.04	-6	15	-21	14.1	15.0	-0.85	16.9	16.6	0.28

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.4,0.36,0.35,0.35,0.36,0.34,0.37,0.42,0.42,0.35,0.34,0.31,0.36,0.4,0.37,0.39,0.41,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.41,0.46,0.43,0.45,0.57,0.55,0.42,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.66,0.66,0.53,0.43,0.28,0.31,0.2,0.34,0.45,0.45,0.78,0.91,0.54,0.62,0.88,0.99,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 108, LAL 112	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.45,0.39,0.35,0.38,0.41,0.37,0.35,0.31,0.32,0.37,0.36,0.33,0.4,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.4,0.44,0.36,0.33,0.41,0.33,0.37,0.4,0.42,0.39,0.42,0.42,0.52,0.55,0.48,0.48,0.47,0.54,0.62,0.53,0.38,0.42,0.31,0.24,0.34,0.38,0.72,0.69,0.73,0.54,0.47,0.46,0.78,0.92,1	89.9%
GSW 104, MIN 106	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.41,0.38,0.4,0.39,0.47,0.41,0.4,0.38,0.3,0.28,0.26,0.34,0.29,0.29,0.32,0.34,0.32,0.36,0.39,0.44,0.54,0.54,0.49,0.34,0.31,0.39,0.42,0.39,0.38,0.35,0.4,0.52,0.72,0.62,0.66,0.62,0.38,0.42,0.26,0.29,0.33,0.53,0.39,0.57,0.91,0.54,0.55,0.72,0.69,0.83,1	89.7%
NYK 100, BOS 114	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.42,0.4,0.45,0.42,0.34,0.35,0.35,0.37,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.5,0.44,0.4,0.38,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.59,0.65,0.69,0.56,0.52,0.62,0.57,0.57,0.53,0.42,0.36,0.41,0.73,0.62,0.55,0.69,0.85,0.46,0.75,0.84,1,1,1	88.9%