NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Minnesota Timberwolves	89		Excitement	3.7 [852]		MVP	JJ Redick (ORL): +10.8%
Orlando Magic	102		Comeback	1.1 [857]		LVP	Michael Beasley (MIN): -8.4%

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Darko Milicic	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Love	-0.01	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	0.00	0.02	17	50%	0.01	1	-0.01	4	75%	-0.00
Nikola Pekovic	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	0.00	0.01	13	50%	0.00	1	-0.01	6	67%	-0.01
Wesley Johnson	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0.01	7	43%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ricky Rubio	-0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	0.01	7	69%	0.07	5	-0.09	2	100%	0.01
Martell Webster	-0.03	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	-0.01	-0.03	4	42%	0.01	2	-0.04	4	75%	-0.00
Derrick Williams	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	5	36%	-0.03	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Wayne Ellington	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	0.02	4	37%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jose Juan Barea	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.12	-0.01	-0.07	10	48%	0.06	7	-0.12	3	33%	-0.01
Michael Beasley	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.04	-0.02	0.03	13	46%	-0.03	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
JJ Redick	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.10	0.01	-0.00	9	70%	0.11	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jason Richardson	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.07	0.02	0.00	11	57%	0.08	0	0.00	8	62%	-0.02
Earl Clark	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.02	-0.00	6	67%	0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Quentin Richardson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.01	-0.02	1	100%	0.05	1	-0.00	2	100%	0.01
Ryan Anderson	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.05	0.00	0.02	12	54%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jameer Nelson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.08	-0.00	0.06	11	64%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Duhon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	2	83%	0.03	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Dwight Howard	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	-0.00	-0.02	11	42%	0.01	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.01
Hedo Turkoglu	0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.07	0.00	-0.04	12	50%	0.05	5	-0.08	4	100%	0.01
Glen Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.12	0.00	-0.04	10	10%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.8	2.7	27.2	16.5	24.5	1.7	25.4	123.7
league avg	25.5	2.3	29.8	14.2	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +28.4%

ORL +5.7%

MIN -2.0%

ORL +17.9%

ORL +0.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIN	ORL	NBA	MIN	ORL	NBA
this game	14.4	15.0	15.6	91.8	103.0	102.8
season	15.3	16.2		102.6	102.8
opponent	15.8	15.1		103.0	104.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIN	15.0	14.2	13.8	14.6	14.4
ORL	15.0	14.1	15.5	15.4	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Wayne Ellington	18	18	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.15	1	-14	15	14.5	14.4	0.13	14.6	15.1	-0.53
Darko Milicic	8	8	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	0.02	-5	-8	3	16.0	14.2	1.75	13.4	15.1	-1.76
Wesley Johnson	40	41	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	-0.02	-6	-7	1	14.5	14.3	0.27	16.3	14.0	2.31
Michael Beasley	56	57	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.09	-5	-8	3	14.0	14.9	-0.88	14.4	15.8	-1.38
Derrick Williams	41	42	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	-0.10	-5	-8	3	14.1	14.6	-0.47	14.8	15.1	-0.35
Nikola Pekovic	66	67	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	-0.20	-2	-11	9	14.4	14.4	0.01	15.2	14.6	0.63
Jose Juan Barea	53	54	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.10	-6	-7	1	14.3	14.5	-0.11	14.1	16.1	-2.06
Martell Webster	45	46	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	-0.02	-9	-4	-5	14.8	14.1	0.72	15.6	14.5	1.16
Ricky Rubio	79	81	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	0.03	-14	1	-15	14.4	14.5	-0.13	15.1	14.6	0.53
Kevin Love	79	81	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	0.03	-14	1	-15	14.4	14.5	-0.13	15.1	14.6	0.53

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dwight Howard	55	56	0.40	0.10	0.30	-0.10	17	-4	21	16.1	13.6	2.56	14.5	14.2	0.30
Ryan Anderson	62	59	0.34	0.16	0.18	-0.13	16	-3	19	14.9	15.1	-0.19	14.9	13.6	1.38
Jameer Nelson	64	63	0.34	0.16	0.17	0.04	10	3	7	15.1	14.8	0.29	15.0	13.3	1.64
Hedo Turkoglu	66	65	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.04	9	4	5	15.4	14.1	1.30	14.3	14.5	-0.16
JJ Redick	53	52	0.26	0.24	0.03	0.09	6	7	-1	14.3	15.8	-1.48	14.4	14.4	0.07
Jason Richardson	46	45	0.24	0.26	-0.03	0.03	7	6	1	15.8	14.3	1.48	14.4	14.4	-0.07
Quentin Richardson	33	32	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.08	4	9	-5	14.1	15.4	-1.30	14.5	14.3	0.16
Earl Clark	33	32	0.20	0.30	-0.11	0.14	2	11	-9	14.3	15.3	-1.03	13.8	14.7	-0.86
Chris Duhon	35	34	0.16	0.34	-0.17	0.08	3	10	-7	14.8	15.1	-0.29	13.3	15.0	-1.64
Glen Davis	48	47	0.07	0.43	-0.37	0.33	-9	22	-31	14.2	15.7	-1.44	14.0	14.8	-0.84

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.64,0.63,0.66,0.61,0.56,0.57,0.6,0.6,0.57,0.62,0.62,0.66,0.67,0.74,0.72,0.79,0.8,0.77,0.81,0.73,0.8,0.86,0.91,0.93,0.96,0.96,0.95,0.94,0.96,0.94,0.9,0.88,0.94,0.96,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.97,0.94,0.93,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 77, MEM 95	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.58,0.56,0.6,0.6,0.57,0.57,0.62,0.58,0.6,0.63,0.66,0.7,0.71,0.73,0.78,0.78,0.84,0.85,0.8,0.77,0.75,0.75,0.81,0.84,0.92,0.93,0.88,0.91,0.91,0.92,0.93,0.9,0.9,0.92,0.93,0.95,0.94,0.96,0.96,0.96,0.95,1,1,1,1,1	96.0%
DET 83, CHI 95	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.52,0.55,0.61,0.61,0.65,0.64,0.63,0.63,0.6,0.66,0.63,0.58,0.54,0.6,0.67,0.71,0.82,0.75,0.76,0.83,0.8,0.76,0.82,0.86,0.84,0.87,0.92,0.93,0.89,0.95,0.94,0.9,0.92,0.91,0.92,0.94,0.97,0.96,0.94,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.98,1,1,1,1	96.0%
PHI 100, MIA 108	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.61,0.62,0.64,0.65,0.6,0.55,0.53,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.62,0.67,0.72,0.71,0.76,0.77,0.81,0.75,0.84,0.86,0.86,0.94,0.95,0.96,0.92,0.9,0.94,0.94,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.9%