NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	106		Excitement	11.4 [21]		MVP	Klay Thompson (GSW): +42.6%
Sacramento Kings	114		Comeback	4.4 [229]		LVP	Stephen Curry (GSW): -31.2%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Klay Thompson	0.43	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.12,0.12,0.26,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.43,0.43,0.43	0.15	0.29	0.02	8	89%	0.43	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Nate Robinson	0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.06,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.29,0.23,0.23,0.31,0.31,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.13	0.04	-0.01	14	65%	0.19	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Dorell Wright	0.15	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.18,0.15,0.2,0.2,0.18,0.18,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.19	-0.02	0.02	13	80%	0.15	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Brandon Rush	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.01	0.06	0.00	4	62%	0.09	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Charles Jenkins	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ekpe Udoh	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	3	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Jeremy Tyler	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Andris Biedrins	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
David Lee	-0.14	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.09	-0.05	-0.00	13	38%	-0.05	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Monta Ellis	-0.16	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.05	-0.09	0.01	17	50%	0.01	5	-0.16	2	100%	0.01
Dominic McGuire	-0.26	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.08,-0.08,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26	-0.05	-0.21	0.00	3	0%	-0.26	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Stephen Curry	-0.31	0,0,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.23,-0.29,-0.31,-0.31,-0.31	-0.12	-0.18	0.01	14	39%	-0.18	5	-0.13	0	0%	0.00

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
John Salmons	0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.09,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.03	0.14	0.01	11	58%	0.28	2	-0.13	2	50%	-0.07
Marcus Thornton	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.13,0.19,0.22,0.22,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.27,0.27,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.2,0.2,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.07	-0.06	-0.04	24	56%	0.22	2	-0.15	2	100%	0.01
Isaiah Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.00	0.00	4	67%	0.05	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Francisco Garcia	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Charles Hayes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Thompson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.00	-0.06	-0.02	13	56%	0.03	3	-0.07	1	100%	0.01
Travis Outlaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
JJ Hickson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	2	33%	-0.01	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
DeMarcus Cousins	0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.07,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,0.01,-0.15,-0.22,-0.22,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.04	-0.12	0.01	18	51%	0.07	5	-0.24	5	100%	0.04
Tyreke Evans	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.1,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	0.07	-0.22	0.03	21	52%	-0.17	1	-0.02	8	75%	0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	22.7	1.7	28.6	15.4	23.7	2.5	36.2	2.4	14.4	147.6
league avg	25.5	2.3	29.8	14.2	26.9	2.3	33.6	1.9	17.4	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW -17.1%

SAC +25.1%

SAC +70.7%

GSW -23.9%

GSW -4.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	SAC	NBA	GSW	SAC	NBA
this game	14.6	16.3	15.6	103.9	109.6	102.8
season	15.2	14.9		103.6	102.2
opponent	15.1	15.4		107.9	106.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
GSW	11.8	14.4	17.1	14.1	18.1	14.6
SAC	15.9	15.6	13.6	20.2	17.2	16.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brandon Rush	35	35	0.29	-0.79	1.07	-0.04	11	-19	30	15.3	14.2	1.08	18.0	15.4	2.64
Ekpe Udoh	49	50	0.20	-0.70	0.90	-0.01	7	-15	22	15.2	14.0	1.24	16.3	16.3	0.04
Jeremy Tyler	9	8	0.05	-0.55	0.60	0.02	1	-9	10	16.6	14.4	2.17	14.2	16.4	-2.20
Nate Robinson	42	44	0.03	-0.53	0.56	-0.00	1	-9	10	16.1	13.5	2.62	16.6	16.1	0.50
Charles Jenkins	0	1	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.06	2	-10	12	0.0	14.6	-14.58	2.0	16.4	-14.42
Klay Thompson	39	41	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.16	1	-9	10	15.6	13.9	1.72	18.0	15.2	2.84
Andris Biedrins	47	46	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	0.01	-6	-2	-4	12.9	16.0	-3.16	16.0	16.5	-0.58
Dominic McGuire	25	27	-0.19	-0.31	0.13	-0.19	0	-8	8	14.5	14.6	-0.13	19.4	15.2	4.18
David Lee	66	68	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	0.01	-10	2	-12	14.7	14.4	0.21	15.4	18.0	-2.63
Dorell Wright	59	60	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.08	-11	3	-14	13.7	15.8	-2.14	15.1	17.9	-2.75
Stephen Curry	60	59	-0.64	0.14	-0.78	-0.32	-11	3	-14	13.5	16.1	-2.62	16.3	16.2	0.06
Monta Ellis	71	72	-0.76	0.26	-1.02	-0.26	-17	9	-26	14.4	15.0	-0.61	15.4	18.2	-2.80

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
DeMarcus Cousins	80	80	0.85	-0.35	1.20	0.38	16	-8	24	16.0	17.3	-1.37	14.5	14.8	-0.31
John Salmons	84	81	0.70	-0.20	0.90	0.35	12	-4	16	15.9	17.8	-1.88	14.4	15.4	-1.07
Jason Thompson	81	80	0.65	-0.15	0.79	0.24	14	-6	20	15.5	19.0	-3.55	14.8	13.9	0.91
Marcus Thornton	93	92	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.31	8	0	8	15.9	19.1	-3.14	14.7	13.4	1.31
Tyreke Evans	96	94	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.22	11	-3	14	16.0	19.6	-3.62	14.5	15.5	-1.00
Francisco Garcia	7	8	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.03	1	7	-6	13.1	16.5	-3.36	17.4	14.3	3.03
Isaiah Thomas	26	24	-0.08	0.58	-0.65	0.04	-4	12	-16	18.5	15.5	3.01	14.9	14.5	0.44
JJ Hickson	23	22	-0.15	0.65	-0.79	0.03	-6	14	-20	19.0	15.5	3.55	13.9	14.8	-0.91
Travis Outlaw	6	7	-0.20	0.70	-0.90	-0.08	-4	12	-16	24.8	15.8	9.08	12.1	14.8	-2.62
Charles Hayes	24	22	-0.35	0.85	-1.20	-0.12	-8	16	-24	17.3	16.0	1.37	14.8	14.5	0.31

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.52,0.59,0.51,0.57,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.44,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.39,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.58,0.55,0.58,0.61,0.55,0.62,0.62,0.75,0.66,0.74,0.79,0.9,0.89,0.85,0.83,0.85,0.79,0.76,0.67,0.47,0.63,0.32,0.41,0.46,0.45,0.79,0.99,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 86, DET 90	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.57,0.54,0.55,0.57,0.53,0.45,0.47,0.4,0.43,0.39,0.4,0.36,0.29,0.35,0.37,0.36,0.36,0.42,0.44,0.51,0.5,0.43,0.45,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.68,0.81,0.83,0.8,0.75,0.9,0.92,0.9,0.92,0.85,0.79,0.76,0.54,0.45,0.28,0.24,0.58,0.54,0.55,0.63,0.78,0.91,1	89.5%
TOR 111, WAS 119	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.47,0.54,0.6,0.62,0.66,0.65,0.61,0.55,0.58,0.57,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.51,0.44,0.44,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.6,0.55,0.58,0.52,0.58,0.65,0.66,0.8,0.8,0.68,0.66,0.74,0.71,0.63,0.77,0.74,0.65,0.61,0.32,0.36,0.55,0.58,0.46,0.55,0.71,0.85,0.73,1	88.9%
PHI 88, CLE 91	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.55,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.58,0.57,0.65,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.62,0.62,0.7,0.7,0.71,0.72,0.74,0.64,0.54,0.57,0.63,0.69,0.67,0.61,0.65,0.64,0.65,0.76,0.63,0.68,0.74,0.82,0.85,0.83,0.91,0.84,0.71,0.67,0.54,0.45,0.57,0.42,0.54,0.55,0.72,0.71,0.93,1	88.7%