NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	81		Excitement	3.5 [875]		MVP	Rudy Fernandez (DEN): +21.5%
Denver Nuggets	96		Comeback	1.0 [1060]		LVP	DeMar DeRozan (TOR): -16.4%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jerryd Bayless	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.13	-0.01	0.05	10	90%	0.10	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
James Johnson	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.11	0.00	0.06	10	73%	0.06	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Leandro Barbosa	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.07	0.01	0.04	13	61%	0.06	1	-0.02	5	80%	0.00
Amir Johnson	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	0.00	0.00	4	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ed Davis	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	6	33%	-0.00	1	-0.02	3	33%	-0.01
Rasual Butler	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Linas Kleiza	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.07	-0.00	-0.03	7	14%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Gray	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.07	0.00	-0.03	2	0%	-0.02	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Gary Forbes	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.07	0.00	-0.02	3	0%	-0.04	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Jamaal Magloire	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Jose Calderon	-0.07	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.09	-0.00	-0.02	10	41%	-0.03	3	-0.04	2	100%	0.00
DeMar DeRozan	-0.16	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.17	-0.02	-0.03	15	25%	-0.09	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.00

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rudy Fernandez	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.17,0.17,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.23,0.23,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.21	0.25	0.01	0.04	11	100%	0.21	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Corey Brewer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	2	75%	0.04	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Danilo Gallinari	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.00	0.00	18	49%	0.03	0	0.00	7	71%	-0.00
Nene	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.05	0.00	0.02	10	59%	0.04	1	-0.01	14	71%	-0.02
Chris Andersen	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kosta Koufos	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Timofey Mozgov	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.05	0.00	-0.04	3	50%	0.01	3	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Andre Miller	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.08	-0.01	-0.05	12	52%	0.06	6	-0.09	1	0%	-0.01
Arron Afflalo	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.07	0.00	-0.02	3	0%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Al Harrington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	10	39%	-0.02	2	-0.04	3	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.7	1.8	28.3	15.3	28.4	2.0	34.2	134.6
league avg	25.5	2.3	29.8	14.2	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +31.4%

DEN +5.9%

TOR -1.1%

DEN +12.0%

DEN +1.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	DEN	NBA	TOR	DEN	NBA
this game	16.9	15.3	15.6	91.0	106.7	102.8
season	16.5	14.5		98.9	107.5
opponent	15.8	15.2		104.5	102.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	17.0	16.8	18.5	15.2	16.9
DEN	14.3	14.5	14.2	18.2	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jamaal Magloire	24	25	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	-0.33	11	-26	37	16.4	17.1	-0.68	17.6	14.4	3.16
Jerryd Bayless	31	32	-0.02	-0.48	0.45	-0.23	7	-22	29	15.3	17.8	-2.54	15.1	15.4	-0.29
Gary Forbes	9	10	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.02	-1	-14	13	17.4	16.8	0.59	13.2	15.5	-2.34
Rasual Butler	33	35	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	-0.23	4	-19	23	14.6	18.3	-3.71	15.9	14.9	1.04
Linas Kleiza	45	48	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	-0.01	-5	-10	5	17.0	16.8	0.27	15.2	15.4	-0.15
Amir Johnson	29	28	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	0.02	-7	-8	1	16.2	17.2	-0.99	13.9	15.9	-1.96
Ed Davis	35	32	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	0.13	-11	-4	-7	17.3	16.6	0.67	14.6	15.6	-1.01
Leandro Barbosa	44	43	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	0.03	-8	-7	-1	16.2	17.6	-1.35	15.2	15.4	-0.18
Aaron Gray	28	29	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	0.11	-13	-2	-11	17.9	16.4	1.49	14.7	15.6	-0.92
James Johnson	49	50	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	-0.07	-10	-5	-5	17.5	16.2	1.29	15.5	14.9	0.59
DeMar DeRozan	60	60	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	0.13	-20	5	-25	17.8	15.0	2.88	15.5	14.9	0.62
Jose Calderon	58	58	-0.48	-0.02	-0.45	0.17	-22	7	-29	17.8	15.3	2.54	15.4	15.1	0.29

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nene	62	62	0.57	-0.07	0.63	-0.17	25	-10	35	15.1	15.7	-0.63	17.7	15.1	2.58
Andre Miller	73	73	0.54	-0.04	0.59	0.02	18	-3	21	14.6	18.2	-3.65	17.2	15.6	1.64
Danilo Gallinari	67	67	0.39	0.11	0.28	-0.02	14	1	13	15.6	14.3	1.37	17.4	15.5	1.81
Rudy Fernandez	63	62	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.05	9	6	3	15.1	15.6	-0.45	16.6	17.7	-1.09
Timofey Mozgov	33	32	0.32	0.18	0.14	-0.15	16	-1	17	13.5	16.3	-2.88	17.7	16.5	1.26
Arron Afflalo	38	38	0.29	0.21	0.08	-0.03	11	4	7	15.5	15.1	0.34	17.4	16.5	0.89
Al Harrington	49	48	0.12	0.38	-0.25	0.21	-3	18	-21	16.2	14.1	2.08	15.9	18.1	-2.25
Chris Andersen	17	18	0.09	0.41	-0.33	0.03	2	13	-11	14.3	15.5	-1.21	14.6	17.5	-2.95
Corey Brewer	38	37	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.18	-5	20	-25	16.1	14.7	1.39	16.3	17.3	-1.05
Kosta Koufos	10	8	-0.17	0.67	-0.83	0.18	-12	27	-39	19.3	14.8	4.52	15.6	17.0	-1.41

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.6,0.6,0.66,0.68,0.74,0.74,0.73,0.8,0.81,0.82,0.82,0.75,0.78,0.86,0.92,0.92,0.9,0.89,0.91,0.96,0.96,0.95,0.94,0.94,0.95,0.97,0.95,0.91,0.93,0.97,0.96,0.95,0.95,0.88,0.76,0.92,0.89,0.91,0.96,0.96,0.98,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 94, SAS 105	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.54,0.52,0.56,0.52,0.6,0.64,0.63,0.7,0.77,0.73,0.77,0.76,0.8,0.8,0.83,0.85,0.86,0.89,0.89,0.9,0.92,0.9,0.95,0.96,0.95,0.91,0.88,0.92,0.89,0.91,0.94,0.94,0.92,0.95,0.96,0.96,0.86,0.76,0.9,0.92,0.96,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.5%
DAL 84, POR 99	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.57,0.58,0.62,0.61,0.67,0.63,0.73,0.75,0.75,0.76,0.78,0.8,0.79,0.85,0.9,0.86,0.87,0.85,0.9,0.94,0.97,0.96,0.94,0.95,0.95,0.9,0.92,0.89,0.88,0.9,0.89,0.95,0.94,0.93,0.91,0.86,0.93,0.87,0.91,0.94,0.95,0.96,1,1,1	96.1%
ATL 95, SAS 111	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.58,0.64,0.59,0.61,0.63,0.65,0.65,0.68,0.75,0.77,0.79,0.8,0.79,0.8,0.82,0.84,0.86,0.85,0.87,0.93,0.94,0.95,0.94,0.95,0.97,0.96,0.93,0.94,0.93,0.94,0.96,0.95,0.91,0.94,0.9,0.91,0.89,0.85,0.92,0.97,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1	95.9%