NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Portland Trail Blazers	89		Excitement	6.8 [364]		MVP	Joe Johnson (ATL): +23.5%
Atlanta Hawks	92		Comeback	1.2 [639]		LVP	Wesley Matthews (POR): -23.5%

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Craig Smith	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.02	-0.01	6	53%	0.07	1	-0.02	5	60%	-0.02
Jamal Crawford	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,0,-0.04,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.02,0.04	0.02	0.04	0.02	22	46%	0.04	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Kurt Thomas	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.03	-0.02	-0.01	6	67%	0.09	1	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Nolan Smith	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.00	0.00	3	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
LaMarcus Aldridge	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01	0.02	-0.03	-0.01	19	50%	0.02	1	-0.03	2	0%	-0.03
Nicolas Batum	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Raymond Felton	-0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.02	-0.05	-0.01	9	45%	-0.03	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Gerald Wallace	-0.16	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.15,-0.15,-0.16	-0.13	-0.06	-0.03	12	31%	-0.12	3	-0.04	2	0%	-0.05
Wesley Matthews	-0.23	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.17,-0.23,-0.23	-0.11	-0.12	0.01	13	32%	-0.16	2	-0.08	5	100%	0.02

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Joe Johnson	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.23	0.23	0.09	0.14	-0.01	19	57%	0.26	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.02
Ivan Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jannero Pargo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	-0.00	4	100%	0.08	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Willie Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	4	37%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tracy McGrady	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.02	-0.01	6	53%	0.01	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.01
Marvin Williams	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	8	50%	0.02	1	-0.03	8	75%	0.00
Josh Smith	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.02	-0.01	17	47%	0.13	3	-0.15	2	50%	-0.01
Jason Collins	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Zaza Pachulia	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	5	42%	-0.03	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Jeff Teague	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.07,-0.14,-0.14,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	0.00	-0.10	0.01	5	72%	0.10	4	-0.21	8	87%	0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.4	2.6	32.1	18.3	29.1	2.8	37.3	146.7
league avg	25.5	2.3	29.8	14.2	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +58.5%

ATL +11.2%

ATL +5.6%

POR -26.6%

ATL +1.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	POR	ATL	NBA	POR	ATL	NBA
this game	15.8	14.9	15.6	94.7	97.9	102.8
season	15.7	15.7		104.1	102.5
opponent	15.9	15.4		99.5	104.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
POR	16.1	16.1	17.2	14.0	15.8
ATL	15.9	13.9	16.3	13.7	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nolan Smith	20	21	0.20	-0.70	0.90	0.02	6	-9	15	13.9	16.3	-2.36	15.4	14.7	0.64
Kurt Thomas	45	46	0.02	-0.52	0.53	-0.07	3	-6	9	15.4	16.1	-0.68	16.0	13.9	2.10
Wesley Matthews	51	53	-0.03	-0.47	0.45	-0.26	8	-11	19	15.7	15.8	-0.02	15.1	14.7	0.40
Nicolas Batum	17	18	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	0.01	-2	-1	-1	13.8	16.2	-2.43	16.6	14.5	2.14
LaMarcus Aldridge	84	83	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.46	3	-6	9	16.0	13.4	2.64	14.8	15.2	-0.34
Raymond Felton	59	58	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.25	-5	2	-7	16.5	14.5	1.98	14.7	15.2	-0.59
Gerald Wallace	85	84	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.44	1	-4	5	16.0	13.0	3.05	14.9	14.6	0.32
Craig Smith	47	46	-0.68	0.18	-0.86	-0.18	-17	14	-31	16.7	14.9	1.81	14.1	15.7	-1.60
Jamal Crawford	62	61	-0.78	0.28	-1.06	-0.43	-12	9	-21	15.0	17.2	-2.22	14.1	16.4	-2.28

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Josh Smith	82	82	0.64	-0.14	0.78	0.40	8	-5	13	14.8	15.7	-0.90	15.8	15.3	0.48
Joe Johnson	73	73	0.55	-0.05	0.61	0.41	5	-2	7	14.9	14.7	0.28	16.2	14.2	1.95
Tracy McGrady	53	53	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.29	8	-5	13	15.7	13.9	1.83	15.1	16.6	-1.43
Ivan Johnson	25	27	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.35	-1	4	-5	14.7	14.9	-0.22	15.1	16.0	-0.96
Jannero Pargo	24	23	0.26	0.24	0.03	0.12	5	-2	7	14.7	14.9	-0.18	13.5	16.5	-3.01
Jeff Teague	70	71	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.29	-2	5	-7	14.9	14.7	0.18	16.5	13.5	3.01
Zaza Pachulia	54	54	0.07	0.43	-0.35	0.01	2	1	1	14.6	15.2	-0.55	15.9	15.6	0.23
Marvin Williams	41	41	-0.03	0.53	-0.55	0.12	-5	8	-13	13.9	15.7	-1.83	16.6	15.1	1.43
Jason Collins	23	22	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	-0.01	-1	4	-5	17.3	14.1	3.15	17.8	15.1	2.69
Willie Green	25	24	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	0.08	-4	7	-11	13.6	15.4	-1.80	12.9	16.7	-3.87

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.48,0.47,0.49,0.53,0.59,0.59,0.57,0.49,0.54,0.6,0.58,0.53,0.62,0.62,0.58,0.66,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.66,0.75,0.75,0.71,0.58,0.51,0.64,0.67,0.58,0.52,0.48,0.56,0.71,0.85,0.94,0.93,0.88,0.83,0.7,0.59,0.47,0.61,0.69,0.63,0.78,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 107, DAL 108	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.56,0.52,0.6,0.62,0.6,0.62,0.67,0.59,0.64,0.64,0.61,0.59,0.66,0.64,0.65,0.59,0.64,0.64,0.61,0.65,0.68,0.59,0.59,0.71,0.78,0.74,0.78,0.62,0.57,0.68,0.64,0.54,0.78,0.75,0.72,0.97,0.96,1	90.5%
MEM 86, ATL 96	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.61,0.57,0.53,0.47,0.54,0.51,0.47,0.43,0.49,0.54,0.6,0.62,0.58,0.55,0.44,0.51,0.51,0.61,0.61,0.67,0.67,0.73,0.63,0.57,0.51,0.51,0.61,0.55,0.61,0.71,0.72,0.83,0.81,0.89,0.9,0.81,0.85,0.83,0.77,0.73,0.54,0.72,0.61,0.63,0.68,0.98,1	90.4%
LAC 95, SAC 99	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.57,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.59,0.63,0.62,0.58,0.6,0.63,0.6,0.6,0.63,0.56,0.56,0.61,0.64,0.59,0.54,0.49,0.46,0.5,0.54,0.54,0.45,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.55,0.59,0.52,0.6,0.72,0.81,0.78,0.79,0.71,0.77,0.64,0.6,0.66,0.75,0.78,0.91,0.98,1	90.4%