inpredictable
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NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)
Real Time? Pre Game Odds?
Miami Heat 116 Excitement14.4 [4] MVPMario Chalmers (MIA): +26.4%
Atlanta Hawks 109 Comeback38.8 [27] LVPJeff Teague (ATL): -41.6%


Miami Heat
PlayerWPAeWPAclWPAgbWPAFGATS%tsWPATOtoWPAFTAFT%ftWPA
Mario Chalmers0.260,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.03,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,-0.01,0.15,0.15,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.260.060.210.012160%0.424-0.166100%0.14
Chris Bosh0.070,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.05,0.07,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0,-0.13,-0.13,-0.25,-0.23,0.2,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.19,0.19,0.25,0.25,0.35,0.27,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.070.000.070.012757%0.657-0.584100%0.02
Joel Anthony0.020,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.020.020.000.001100%0.051-0.031100%0.01
Dexter Pittman0.020,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.020.02-0.010.00362%0.051-0.04250%-0.01
Shane Battier0.010,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01-0.010.01-0.011041%0.0100.00250%-0.01
Juwan Howard0.0000.000.000.0000%0.0000.0000%0.00
Udonis Haslem-0.020,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02-0.040.01-0.011641%0.001-0.022100%0.03
James Jones-0.060,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06-0.06-0.01-0.00733%-0.031-0.0310%-0.02
Norris Cole-0.100,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.01,-0.03,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1-0.05-0.06-0.00853%0.054-0.151100%0.00
Terrel Harris-0.170,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.17,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17-0.06-0.12-0.01941%-0.042-0.12450%-0.05

Atlanta Hawks
PlayerWPAeWPAclWPAgbWPAFGATS%tsWPATOtoWPAFTAFT%ftWPA
Willie Green0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.180.180.140.02-0.026100%0.1800.002100%0.01
Tracy McGrady0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.17,0.17,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.120.120.030.090.00858%0.141-0.02862%-0.04
Al Horford0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.1,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.050.05-0.020.06-0.00771%0.284-0.2300%0.00
Jannero Pargo0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.040.040.040.000.001150%0.0400.0000%0.00
Jason Collins00.000.000.000.0000%0.0000.0000%0.00
Vladimir Radmanovic0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01-0.01-0.020.01-0.01436%-0.0100.00683%0.01
Zaza Pachulia0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06-0.06-0.05-0.00-0.0020%-0.031-0.0200%0.00
Marvin Williams0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,0.09,0,0,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07-0.07-0.070.010.011032%0.021-0.082100%0.01
Josh Smith0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1-0.10-0.05-0.06-0.011740%-0.081-0.02956%-0.05
Ivan Johnson0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.07,0.12,0.18,0.18,0.14,0.14,0.07,0.07,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16-0.17-0.02-0.150.00768%0.155-0.31560%-0.04
Joe Johnson0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.07,0.02,0.14,0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.17,-0.17,-0.1,-0.1,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.31,-0.35,-0.35-0.35-0.06-0.30-0.012043%-0.182-0.17683%0.04
Jeff Teague0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.23,-0.23,-0.3,-0.3,-0.3,-0.3,-0.3,-0.36,-0.36,-0.36,-0.36,-0.36,-0.42,-0.42,-0.42,-0.42,-0.42,-0.42,-0.42,-0.42,-0.42-0.42-0.19-0.23-0.001219%-0.322-0.10850%-0.12
Game Length Report (minutes)

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 OT1 OT2 OT3Total
this game25.43.637.018.832.22.740.73.513.02.621.32.511.4214.6
league avg25.52.329.814.226.92.333.61.917.41.917.41.917.4136.2
Win Probability Added by the Four Factors
(aka How the Game Was Won)
victory
100% WP
start
50% WP
MIA +77.6%
MIA +20.1%
ATL -30.3%
ATL -14.4%
ATL -3.0%
Pace and Efficiency Report

seconds / possessionpoints / 100 possessions
all possessionsMIAATLNBAMIAATLNBA
this game16.515.715.698.393.2102.8
season15.515.7105.6102.5
opponent15.915.899.598.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

Q1Q2Q3Q4OTTotal
MIA17.515.616.015.018.316.5
ATL16.015.714.615.716.315.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
possessionswin probabilitypointspace (offense)pace (defense)
playeroffensedefenseonoffdiffcl+/-onoffdiffonoffdiffonoffdiff
Mario Chalmers86880.93-0.431.350.2224-174117.713.24.5816.313.72.64
Shane Battier86860.72-0.220.930.2217-102715.818.3-2.4615.117.3-2.24
Chris Bosh88870.67-0.170.840.2913-61916.416.7-0.2816.114.31.80
James Jones51520.420.080.340.2461516.316.6-0.3115.116.1-1.01
Terrel Harris81790.260.240.020.44-613-1917.115.12.0915.815.50.26
Joel Anthony35340.120.38-0.26-0.0870716.216.6-0.3716.115.50.58
Juwan Howard320.010.49-0.480.0107-713.016.6-3.5812.015.7-3.74
Udonis Haslem7874-0.130.63-0.760.16-1017-2717.015.51.5415.815.40.37
Dexter Pittman2424-0.160.66-0.82-0.04-411-1515.416.8-1.4014.915.9-1.01
Norris Cole4039-0.330.83-1.160.02-1219-3115.117.2-2.0714.716.2-1.47

Atlanta Hawks
possessionswin probabilitypointspace (offense)pace (defense)
playeroffensedefenseonoffdiffcl+/-onoffdiffonoffdiffonoffdiff
Ivan Johnson42421.18-1.682.860.6817-244115.915.60.2815.017.3-2.32
Tracy McGrady53570.37-0.871.250.0212-193116.215.30.8716.516.5-0.07
Zaza Pachulia22220.08-0.580.650.051-8915.815.70.1217.216.30.85
Jannero Pargo1515-0.07-0.430.350.02-3-4117.715.42.3619.116.12.95
Jason Collins88-0.08-0.420.340.01-3-4116.015.70.3512.116.8-4.68
Willie Green4141-0.12-0.380.26-0.120-7715.215.9-0.6616.416.5-0.12
Vladimir Radmanovic1716-0.21-0.290.080.05-92-1116.115.60.4517.716.31.46
Jeff Teague8991-0.42-0.08-0.34-0.30-4-3-115.018.0-3.0115.918.6-2.68
Al Horford7274-0.640.14-0.78-0.32-114-1516.214.91.2417.015.71.25
Joe Johnson9090-0.650.15-0.80-0.36-103-1315.815.10.6916.815.51.35
Josh Smith8081-0.730.23-0.95-0.67-2-5315.416.4-0.9916.316.8-0.47
Marvin Williams5653-1.210.70-1.91-0.53-2316-3915.416.0-0.5817.116.01.13


Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.59,0.5,0.5,0.43,0.39,0.43,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.44,0.4,0.38,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.48,0.46,0.54,0.41,0.37,0.29,0.28,0.2,0.19,0.14,0.13,0.17,0.19,0.27,0.3,0.36,0.58,0.52,0.57,0.53,0.58,0.64,0.53,0.6,0.69,0.55,0.9,0.9,0.46,0.45,0.15,0.15,0.05,0.46,0.25,0.21,0.23,0.28,0.54,0.45,0.28,0.06,0.02,0
GameSimilarity Score
CHI 100, DET 940.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.43,0.39,0.39,0.32,0.36,0.35,0.31,0.36,0.38,0.35,0.44,0.42,0.47,0.51,0.48,0.42,0.48,0.54,0.51,0.44,0.36,0.27,0.24,0.2,0.13,0.12,0.14,0.23,0.2,0.21,0.34,0.48,0.52,0.58,0.66,0.79,0.76,0.77,0.59,0.65,0.67,0.53,0.63,0.57,0.84,0.46,0.53,0.54,0.22,0.04,084.4%
CHH 92, IND 900.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.5,0.51,0.43,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.42,0.37,0.38,0.38,0.36,0.4,0.46,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.33,0.22,0.31,0.26,0.2,0.27,0.19,0.16,0.1,0.16,0.27,0.19,0.25,0.42,0.43,0.43,0.47,0.63,0.47,0.46,0.65,0.62,0.72,0.76,0.73,084.2%
DET 85, CHH 880.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.42,0.38,0.38,0.31,0.3,0.37,0.37,0.35,0.36,0.34,0.34,0.32,0.36,0.38,0.37,0.39,0.36,0.31,0.31,0.27,0.22,0.22,0.16,0.18,0.22,0.17,0.24,0.16,0.22,0.31,0.27,0.33,0.4,0.5,0.52,0.67,0.62,0.63,0.47,0.47,0.53,0.61,0.63,0.83,0.84,184.1%