NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Portland Trail Blazers	98		Excitement	4.9 [875]		MVP	Wesley Matthews (POR): +17.8%
Utah Jazz	87		Comeback	1.0 [1082]		LVP	Rudy Fernandez (POR): -15.4%

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Wesley Matthews	0.18	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.14,0.11,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.15	0.05	0.03	7	82%	0.18	0	0.00	8	100%	0.03
Nicolas Batum	0.17	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.13	0.03	-0.01	13	78%	0.21	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.00
Gerald Wallace	0.11	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.20	0.02	0.12	18	71%	0.11	0	0.00	5	100%	0.01
Brandon Roy	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.05	0.02	-0.02	8	61%	0.11	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01
Patty Mills	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Johnson	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
LaMarcus Aldridge	-0.05	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.09	0.00	-0.03	19	32%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andre Miller	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.12	-0.02	-0.03	9	24%	-0.08	2	-0.04	3	100%	0.01
Rudy Fernandez	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.01	-0.01	4	0%	-0.07	4	-0.09	0	0%	0.00

Utah Jazz
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Derrick Favors	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.01	-0.00	7	57%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Devin Harris	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0,0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.08,0.03,0.03,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.06	-0.02	0.03	16	74%	0.21	7	-0.20	3	100%	0.01
Earl Watson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	-0.01	-0.01	7	43%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gordon Hayward	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.04	-0.02	0.03	5	56%	-0.01	0	0.00	8	100%	0.03
Jeremy Evans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Weaver	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	2	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Paul Millsap	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.02	0.03	15	51%	0.01	3	-0.07	7	57%	-0.02
Al Jefferson	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	0.00	-0.02	0.05	10	45%	-0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
CJ Miles	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.11	0.01	-0.01	11	27%	-0.04	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.8	3.5	28.3	18.6	25.3	3.5	32.2	136.2
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

POR +27.1%

POR +4.5%

POR +0.7%

POR +13.9%

POR +3.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	POR	UTA	NBA	POR	UTA	NBA
this game	17.2	17.3	15.5	118.1	103.6	105.7
season	16.5	15.9		106.7	106.4
opponent	15.3	15.7		108.2	105.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
POR	16.0	17.4	15.4	20.3	17.2
UTA	18.2	17.7	17.4	15.7	17.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nicolas Batum	62	60	0.49	0.01	0.47	0.13	12	-1	13	16.4	19.8	-3.39	17.1	17.7	-0.68
Gerald Wallace	74	75	0.47	0.03	0.43	0.17	10	1	9	17.6	13.8	3.87	17.4	16.3	1.04
LaMarcus Aldridge	72	72	0.46	0.04	0.41	0.13	11	0	11	17.8	13.5	4.35	17.4	16.4	0.99
Wesley Matthews	55	54	0.40	0.10	0.29	0.04	12	-1	13	18.1	15.5	2.56	17.6	16.6	1.08
Andre Miller	61	59	0.38	0.12	0.27	0.09	10	1	9	18.1	14.7	3.40	17.8	16.0	1.74
Brandon Roy	35	39	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.15	1	10	-9	17.2	17.2	-0.05	16.8	17.6	-0.82
Rudy Fernandez	26	28	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.11	0	11	-11	15.6	18.0	-2.41	16.6	17.6	-0.93
Chris Johnson	20	21	0.08	0.42	-0.35	0.05	1	10	-9	13.6	18.4	-4.78	16.4	17.6	-1.17
Patty Mills	10	12	-0.06	0.56	-0.61	0.00	-2	13	-15	16.7	17.3	-0.60	16.8	17.3	-0.50

Utah Jazz
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jeremy Evans	16	13	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	-0.03	1	-12	13	16.0	17.6	-1.56	16.2	17.4	-1.18
Kyle Weaver	13	12	-0.03	-0.47	0.45	-0.08	2	-13	15	17.8	17.2	0.60	18.9	16.9	1.97
Derrick Favors	38	36	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.16	1	-12	13	16.9	17.6	-0.72	16.5	17.8	-1.34
Earl Watson	53	52	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	-0.21	0	-11	11	16.5	18.5	-2.04	17.5	16.8	0.62
CJ Miles	49	50	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	-0.10	-5	-6	1	18.7	15.2	3.53	15.6	19.7	-4.10
Paul Millsap	66	68	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.10	-12	1	-13	17.3	17.2	0.12	16.6	20.3	-3.71
Gordon Hayward	61	60	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	-0.04	-14	3	-17	17.0	18.1	-1.14	18.2	14.7	3.44
Al Jefferson	61	61	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	-0.08	-13	2	-15	17.6	16.3	1.26	18.5	13.7	4.83
Devin Harris	63	63	-0.53	0.03	-0.57	-0.09	-15	4	-19	17.1	17.6	-0.48	17.2	17.2	-0.03

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.45,0.46,0.44,0.43,0.41,0.35,0.37,0.38,0.34,0.32,0.4,0.36,0.38,0.4,0.37,0.35,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.39,0.39,0.3,0.34,0.34,0.33,0.3,0.29,0.29,0.17,0.19,0.26,0.33,0.15,0.08,0.07,0.09,0.08,0.07,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.02,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 111, BOS 98	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.45,0.43,0.39,0.41,0.39,0.4,0.35,0.29,0.29,0.26,0.34,0.36,0.36,0.4,0.37,0.41,0.48,0.48,0.46,0.39,0.36,0.27,0.34,0.31,0.33,0.39,0.33,0.23,0.23,0.27,0.27,0.26,0.15,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.04,0.05,0.11,0.06,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0	95.9%
NJN 104, CHA 90	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.43,0.42,0.39,0.45,0.39,0.37,0.31,0.34,0.35,0.38,0.34,0.34,0.31,0.33,0.34,0.34,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.41,0.37,0.31,0.34,0.33,0.27,0.27,0.21,0.17,0.16,0.23,0.22,0.18,0.22,0.15,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	95.7%
IND 100, ATL 90	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.43,0.35,0.35,0.35,0.41,0.43,0.4,0.41,0.42,0.35,0.38,0.4,0.42,0.4,0.41,0.37,0.39,0.44,0.42,0.36,0.39,0.37,0.41,0.4,0.33,0.39,0.33,0.26,0.26,0.18,0.2,0.23,0.13,0.1,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.1,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	95.4%