NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Houston Rockets	93		Excitement	7.3 [366]		MVP	Jarrett Jack (NOH): +29.6%
New Orleans Hornets	101		Comeback	6.5 [285]		LVP	Kyle Lowry (HOU): -26.4%

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Goran Dragic	0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.2,0.2,0.31,0.28,0.28,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.18,0.18	0.15	0.03	0.00	9	89%	0.18	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luis Scola	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15	0.05	0.10	-0.01	11	73%	0.23	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Martin	0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.04	0.01	-0.02	17	54%	0.21	3	-0.14	5	80%	0.01
Chase Budinger	0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	-0.00	-0.01	9	60%	0.07	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Patrick Patterson	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.00	0.02	-0.00	2	75%	0.10	2	-0.07	4	100%	0.04
Brad Miller	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05	-0.03	-0.04	-0.03	4	50%	0.05	2	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Charles Hayes	-0.05	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	9	44%	-0.00	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Courtney Lee	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.12	-0.03	-0.01	6	14%	-0.04	2	-0.09	2	100%	0.02
Kyle Lowry	-0.26	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.15,-0.15,-0.26	-0.07	-0.22	-0.02	11	36%	-0.16	2	-0.11	0	0%	0.00

New Orleans Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jarrett Jack	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.3	0.30	0.13	0.17	0.00	10	68%	0.30	0	0.00	8	87%	0.03
Chris Paul	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.12,0.12,0.19,0.19,0.26,0.26,0.22	0.22	0.10	0.14	0.02	20	58%	0.24	1	-0.02	8	87%	0.04
Trevor Ariza	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.01	0.05	-0.01	17	54%	0.19	3	-0.12	1	0%	-0.02
Willie Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	-0.00	6	50%	0.02	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.03
Marco Belinelli	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.02	-0.01	5	50%	0.03	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Gray	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	5	40%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Carl Landry	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.07	-0.01	-0.02	10	24%	-0.06	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Emeka Okafor	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	0.00	6	69%	0.08	5	-0.16	4	75%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.2	2.3	26.6	15.5	29.4	2.3	35.3	133.7
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

NOH +5.9%

NOH +6.0%

HOU -4.1%

NOH +36.6%

NOH +5.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	HOU	NOH	NBA	HOU	NOH	NBA
this game	16.3	15.5	15.5	102.2	112.2	105.7
season	15.2	16.2		109.5	104.6
opponent	15.9	14.9		104.4	107.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
HOU	15.6	18.2	17.4	14.2	16.3
NOH	15.7	15.2	15.3	15.8	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chase Budinger	46	45	0.03	-0.53	0.56	-0.06	3	-11	14	17.4	15.1	2.28	14.3	16.8	-2.44
Patrick Patterson	30	31	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.04	2	-10	12	15.4	16.7	-1.27	17.5	14.5	3.07
Courtney Lee	44	44	-0.05	-0.45	0.39	0.03	-3	-5	2	17.2	15.4	1.87	17.2	13.9	3.27
Brad Miller	31	32	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	0.03	-4	-4	0	15.8	16.5	-0.73	16.8	14.8	2.03
Goran Dragic	43	44	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.22	-2	-6	4	14.7	17.7	-2.92	16.5	14.6	1.85
Charles Hayes	62	60	-0.42	-0.08	-0.35	-0.31	-4	-4	0	16.7	15.4	1.33	14.9	16.8	-1.85
Kevin Martin	74	74	-0.45	-0.05	-0.39	-0.24	-7	-1	-6	15.5	19.6	-4.13	15.5	15.9	-0.42
Luis Scola	59	57	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.22	-10	2	-12	16.5	15.8	0.68	14.4	17.6	-3.22
Kyle Lowry	66	63	-0.75	0.25	-1.00	-0.31	-15	7	-22	16.7	15.1	1.61	14.7	17.6	-2.89

New Orleans Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Paul	77	79	0.69	-0.19	0.88	0.37	11	-3	14	15.4	16.1	-0.64	16.4	15.4	1.00
Carl Landry	66	69	0.62	-0.12	0.75	0.42	7	1	6	14.6	18.0	-3.36	16.6	15.2	1.40
Trevor Ariza	77	76	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.32	10	-2	12	15.1	18.2	-3.15	16.5	15.0	1.54
Jarrett Jack	60	62	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.14	11	-3	14	15.6	15.3	0.30	15.8	17.4	-1.66
Emeka Okafor	54	54	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.42	0	8	-8	15.6	15.4	0.24	16.9	15.4	1.57
Aaron Gray	27	27	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.01	1	7	-6	16.0	15.3	0.67	15.9	16.5	-0.62
Jason Smith	31	30	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	-0.18	4	4	0	17.6	14.4	3.17	15.6	16.6	-1.07
Marco Belinelli	36	34	-0.13	0.63	-0.76	-0.01	-4	12	-16	15.3	15.7	-0.43	16.9	15.9	0.91
Willie Green	22	24	-0.15	0.65	-0.81	-0.15	0	8	-8	16.5	15.2	1.34	14.6	16.9	-2.31

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.43,0.37,0.36,0.32,0.27,0.27,0.32,0.35,0.26,0.24,0.19,0.21,0.24,0.29,0.29,0.26,0.22,0.21,0.15,0.17,0.25,0.36,0.42,0.34,0.33,0.36,0.48,0.42,0.48,0.59,0.65,0.7,0.71,0.64,0.62,0.66,0.53,0.42,0.47,0.31,0.41,0.66,0.75,0.72,0.91,0.85,1
Game		Similarity Score
ATL 101, MIL 105	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.42,0.39,0.35,0.39,0.39,0.35,0.37,0.31,0.34,0.28,0.32,0.36,0.38,0.4,0.42,0.32,0.27,0.26,0.2,0.3,0.33,0.33,0.35,0.37,0.45,0.42,0.48,0.45,0.55,0.62,0.63,0.63,0.64,0.7,0.74,0.62,0.53,0.32,0.41,0.4,0.6,0.75,0.74,0.76,0.92,1	92.3%
VAN 87, DAL 92	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.43,0.41,0.38,0.38,0.39,0.35,0.28,0.26,0.24,0.26,0.28,0.25,0.23,0.31,0.35,0.25,0.18,0.22,0.24,0.28,0.36,0.42,0.31,0.42,0.3,0.37,0.39,0.48,0.52,0.47,0.48,0.56,0.56,0.5,0.52,0.33,0.37,0.42,0.41,0.41,0.53,0.73,0.89,0.9,0.91,1	91.6%
BOS 86, DET 92	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.44,0.45,0.44,0.37,0.41,0.39,0.35,0.35,0.38,0.36,0.32,0.3,0.29,0.29,0.25,0.29,0.24,0.29,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.36,0.27,0.27,0.31,0.25,0.33,0.36,0.42,0.48,0.53,0.59,0.71,0.6,0.5,0.57,0.38,0.28,0.42,0.57,0.53,0.73,0.9,0.93,0.91,0.95,1	89.9%