NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	112		Excitement	9.3 [88]		MVP	Al Harrington (DEN): +33.5%
Denver Nuggets	115		Comeback	5.7 [345]		LVP	Ty Lawson (DEN): -20.5%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gary Neal	0.28	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.14,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.19,0.19,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.23,0.28,0.28	0.18	0.08	-0.01	15	78%	0.29	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
George Hill	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.00	0.00	5	58%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Richard Jefferson	0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.02	-0.01	8	45%	0.04	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.03
Matt Bonner	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	6	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Antonio McDyess	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.02,-0.03,0.06,-0.02,-0.02	0.01	-0.03	-0.00	11	46%	-0.02	0	0.00	6	83%	0.03
Tony Parker	-0.03	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.18,0.18,0.08,-0.03	0.10	-0.12	0.01	13	63%	-0.01	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.01
Tiago Splitter	-0.05	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	5	33%	-0.02	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
DeJuan Blair	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.02	-0.05	0.00	7	50%	-0.01	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Manu Ginobili	-0.08	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.1,0.17,0.14,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,-0.08	0.03	-0.11	-0.00	18	53%	-0.04	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Al Harrington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.26,0.26,0.37,0.37,0.5,0.38,0.33,0.33,0.33	0.33	0.24	0.09	-0.00	12	82%	0.33	0	0.00	9	67%	-0.05
Wilson Chandler	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.14	0.14	-0.02	0.15	-0.00	10	40%	0.14	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Raymond Felton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.1,0.25,0.25,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.05	0.08	-0.01	12	60%	0.20	2	-0.06	6	50%	-0.04
J.R. Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.11	0.04	0.03	9	82%	0.17	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.02
Danilo Gallinari	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.04	-0.02	0.01	7	59%	0.03	1	-0.02	8	62%	-0.02
Chris Andersen	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nene	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.03	-0.03	-0.00	3	57%	-0.00	0	0.00	8	50%	-0.13
Kenyon Martin	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	10	46%	-0.01	2	-0.03	4	75%	-0.01
Ty Lawson	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.21	-0.21	-0.01	-0.20	-0.00	14	43%	-0.21	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.6	2.7	29.2	18.4	27.9	3.0	37.3	147.1
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +63.8%

SAS -26.9%

DEN +15.0%

DEN +3.6%

SAS -5.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	DEN	NBA	SAS	DEN	NBA
this game	17.5	13.0	15.5	119.1	121.1	105.7
season	15.5	14.3		109.3	110.7
opponent	15.5	15.2		106.1	103.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	16.2	17.3	19.4	17.2	17.5
DEN	12.6	12.2	13.3	14.1	13.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tiago Splitter	34	34	0.26	-0.76	1.02	-0.06	11	-14	25	17.8	17.3	0.54	12.9	13.1	-0.26
Antonio McDyess	49	50	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.36	11	-14	25	17.2	17.8	-0.57	12.9	13.1	-0.17
Richard Jefferson	62	60	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.19	2	-5	7	17.6	17.2	0.49	13.7	11.8	1.93
Tony Parker	71	71	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.38	4	-7	11	17.6	17.2	0.40	13.4	12.0	1.42
Manu Ginobili	74	74	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.52	4	-7	11	17.1	19.0	-1.93	12.7	14.0	-1.26
Gary Neal	46	50	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.24	-6	3	-9	16.7	18.3	-1.62	12.9	13.1	-0.21
Matt Bonner	44	45	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	-0.04	-14	11	-25	18.1	17.0	1.11	13.1	12.9	0.17
George Hill	40	41	-0.51	0.01	-0.53	-0.16	-12	9	-21	17.8	17.2	0.65	13.0	13.1	-0.08
DeJuan Blair	50	50	-0.53	0.03	-0.57	-0.09	-15	12	-27	17.7	17.2	0.52	12.3	13.8	-1.48

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Al Harrington	56	56	0.84	-0.34	1.18	0.28	19	-16	35	13.3	12.6	0.78	17.1	18.0	-0.92
Raymond Felton	66	64	0.82	-0.32	1.13	0.35	16	-13	29	13.0	13.0	0.08	17.2	18.0	-0.81
Wilson Chandler	68	67	0.37	0.13	0.25	0.52	-5	8	-13	13.1	12.9	0.24	17.8	16.7	1.09
J.R. Smith	40	40	0.29	0.21	0.09	0.15	5	-2	7	13.0	13.0	0.01	17.4	17.6	-0.18
Ty Lawson	59	59	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.29	-3	6	-9	13.4	12.5	0.88	16.8	18.6	-1.74
Kenyon Martin	57	56	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.34	-9	12	-21	13.5	12.3	1.13	17.2	17.9	-0.70
Nene	63	65	0.03	0.47	-0.43	0.21	-6	9	-15	12.7	13.6	-0.82	18.5	15.2	3.34
Chris Andersen	13	11	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.06	2	1	1	11.9	13.2	-1.27	14.7	17.8	-3.12
Danilo Gallinari	53	52	-0.13	0.63	-0.76	-0.01	-4	7	-11	12.3	13.9	-1.63	18.2	16.6	1.64

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.38,0.38,0.39,0.43,0.43,0.35,0.3,0.31,0.24,0.3,0.26,0.22,0.25,0.29,0.22,0.23,0.24,0.41,0.42,0.42,0.36,0.37,0.4,0.33,0.3,0.33,0.24,0.26,0.23,0.24,0.2,0.29,0.32,0.38,0.26,0.21,0.2,0.28,0.53,0.76,0.61,0.69,0.72,0.67,0.42,1
Game		Similarity Score
POR 86, VAN 88	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.37,0.32,0.34,0.29,0.29,0.33,0.35,0.29,0.28,0.24,0.3,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.32,0.34,0.27,0.28,0.39,0.41,0.3,0.34,0.31,0.2,0.24,0.21,0.21,0.17,0.16,0.2,0.22,0.25,0.26,0.18,0.14,0.24,0.23,0.31,0.53,0.73,0.86,0.84,0.84,0.72,1	90.2%
MEM 94, OKC 101	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.52,0.5,0.5,0.45,0.51,0.53,0.38,0.47,0.42,0.37,0.36,0.36,0.29,0.25,0.24,0.34,0.41,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.41,0.33,0.37,0.42,0.42,0.45,0.39,0.35,0.22,0.22,0.3,0.26,0.22,0.19,0.22,0.21,0.28,0.47,0.59,0.65,0.55,0.75,0.78,0.78,0.58,1	90.2%
CLE 101, NJN 103	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.54,0.48,0.43,0.45,0.41,0.43,0.4,0.4,0.43,0.34,0.32,0.27,0.29,0.24,0.28,0.36,0.36,0.34,0.39,0.39,0.33,0.32,0.28,0.27,0.33,0.36,0.45,0.38,0.35,0.37,0.37,0.32,0.34,0.26,0.34,0.2,0.28,0.31,0.4,0.67,0.75,0.71,0.85,0.42,1	89.7%