NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	92		Excitement	7.0 [415]		MVP	Jarrett Jack (NOH): +46.9%
New Orleans Hornets	93		Comeback	226.3 [6]		LVP	Trevor Ariza (NOH): -25.2%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jason Terry	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.03	0.08	-0.01	10	50%	0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shawn Marion	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.01	0.05	-0.01	6	50%	0.07	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Brian Cardinal	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.02	-0.01	2	83%	0.08	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Tyson Chandler	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.05	0.08	-0.03	0.00	5	73%	0.09	1	-0.04	12	67%	-0.09
Brendan Haywood	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.02	-0.00	2	44%	0.03	0	0.00	5	40%	-0.04
Rodrigue Beaubois	0.01	0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.08,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.02	-0.01	-0.04	10	45%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jose Juan Barea	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	7	75%	0.11	5	-0.13	2	100%	0.01
Dirk Nowitzki	-0.04	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.07,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.19,0.23,0.23,0.24,-0.04	0.14	-0.18	-0.00	18	62%	-0.03	1	-0.01	6	100%	0.04
DeShawn Stevenson	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	2	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Kidd	-0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06	-0.08	0.00	-0.02	7	18%	-0.06	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02

New Orleans Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jarrett Jack	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.04,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.01,0.47	0.47	0.01	0.45	-0.02	19	49%	0.52	2	-0.05	5	100%	0.21
Marco Belinelli	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.18,0.18,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.11	0.06	0.02	15	64%	0.16	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.04
Carl Landry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.11	-0.01	0.00	9	75%	0.10	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Emeka Okafor	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06	0.06	0.02	0.05	0.01	4	73%	0.10	2	-0.04	3	67%	-0.05
David West	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.00	12	50%	0.03	1	-0.02	8	75%	-0.02
Aaron Gray	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Willie Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	0.00	9	33%	-0.06	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Trevor Ariza	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.19,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.23,-0.25	-0.25	-0.15	-0.10	-0.00	10	21%	-0.18	2	-0.07	8	75%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.0	1.8	27.0	16.6	32.6	0.2	45.1	147.3
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL -7.0%

NOH +35.1%

NOH +21.8%

NOH +2.1%

DAL -1.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	NOH	NBA	DAL	NOH	NBA
this game	15.8	17.3	15.5	105.7	106.9	105.7
season	15.7	16.2		108.5	104.6
opponent	15.9	15.7		104.4	103.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	13.7	16.9	16.4	16.3	15.8
NOH	19.0	18.3	16.4	15.7	17.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shawn Marion	39	39	0.32	-0.82	1.13	0.02	10	-11	21	14.9	16.5	-1.60	18.8	16.1	2.76
Rodrigue Beaubois	23	23	0.30	-0.80	1.10	-0.02	11	-12	23	15.1	16.1	-0.98	19.6	16.5	3.14
Jose Juan Barea	34	33	0.07	-0.57	0.64	0.01	2	-3	5	17.1	15.0	2.11	16.9	17.5	-0.63
DeShawn Stevenson	33	31	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	0.10	-9	8	-17	16.8	15.2	1.63	15.1	18.5	-3.37
Brendan Haywood	42	40	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	0.19	-14	13	-27	17.4	14.3	3.14	16.2	18.2	-2.03
Tyson Chandler	45	47	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.66	13	-14	27	14.3	17.4	-3.14	18.2	16.2	2.03
Dirk Nowitzki	64	65	-0.57	0.07	-0.63	-0.59	1	-2	3	16.1	15.0	1.09	17.0	18.2	-1.24
Jason Kidd	63	63	-0.57	0.07	-0.64	-0.54	-1	0	-1	14.5	19.3	-4.87	18.1	15.3	2.77
Brian Cardinal	38	40	-0.62	0.12	-0.73	-0.41	-7	6	-13	15.3	16.2	-0.87	17.6	17.0	0.56
Jason Terry	54	54	-0.76	0.26	-1.03	-0.44	-11	10	-21	16.9	14.0	2.86	16.0	19.5	-3.52

New Orleans Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jarrett Jack	76	76	0.79	-0.29	1.07	0.49	10	-9	19	17.6	15.4	2.22	15.5	17.9	-2.41
Emeka Okafor	44	44	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.68	-7	8	-15	18.5	16.1	2.38	14.8	16.8	-1.95
Trevor Ariza	75	74	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.49	-3	4	-7	17.3	17.3	-0.04	15.3	18.5	-3.21
David West	71	68	0.35	0.15	0.21	0.56	-7	8	-15	17.6	16.1	1.51	15.3	17.6	-2.34
Marco Belinelli	70	72	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.11	5	-4	9	17.0	18.4	-1.31	16.2	14.0	2.18
Aaron Gray	13	15	0.10	0.40	-0.29	-0.10	7	-6	13	16.3	17.5	-1.17	17.3	15.5	1.77
Carl Landry	46	47	0.06	0.44	-0.38	-0.20	9	-8	17	16.0	18.7	-2.71	17.0	14.4	2.55
Willie Green	40	39	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.32	-9	10	-19	17.2	17.4	-0.14	16.6	15.1	1.47

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.46,0.47,0.43,0.37,0.37,0.34,0.37,0.4,0.42,0.44,0.5,0.47,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.48,0.47,0.44,0.28,0.36,0.39,0.46,0.4,0.37,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.32,0.22,0.19,0.18,0.19,0.28,0.13,0.15,0.09,0.11,0.09,0.21,0.29,0.17,0.1,0.07,0.04,0.01,1
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 115, SAC 116	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.44,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.36,0.45,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.53,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.42,0.37,0.27,0.26,0.36,0.41,0.38,0.3,0.4,0.4,0.39,0.39,0.3,0.29,0.29,0.28,0.21,0.19,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.14,0.07,0.04,0.12,0.1,0.02,0.01,0.07,0,1	92.0%
MIL 96, TOR 97	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.42,0.38,0.44,0.51,0.43,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.58,0.5,0.47,0.42,0.4,0.38,0.44,0.39,0.41,0.46,0.49,0.42,0.36,0.46,0.45,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.33,0.21,0.26,0.24,0.27,0.12,0.15,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.09,0.06,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.05,0.18,1	90.2%
BKN 94, MIA 96	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.4,0.39,0.4,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.58,0.53,0.45,0.47,0.44,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.44,0.41,0.3,0.4,0.52,0.39,0.36,0.33,0.18,0.26,0.28,0.34,0.19,0.25,0.15,0.22,0.34,0.29,0.15,0.26,0.12,0.13,0.04,0.03,0.1,0.27,1	90.0%