NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Oklahoma City Thunder	101		Excitement	6.5 [525]		MVP	Zach Randolph (MEM): +16.9%
Memphis Grizzlies	107		Comeback	1.3 [848]		LVP	Darrell Arthur (MEM): -7.4%

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Durant	0.05	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.05	0.08	-0.02	0.01	20	51%	0.05	0	0.00	5	60%	-0.01
Serge Ibaka	0.05	0,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05	0.07	0.00	0.02	10	64%	0.05	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Russell Westbrook	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,-0.04,0.09,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.01	21	57%	0.15	5	-0.12	5	80%	0.01
Daequan Cook	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.00	0.03	-0.00	6	42%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cole Aldrich	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nazr Mohammed	-0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	4	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Eric Maynor	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	2	50%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Nick Collison	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.00	4	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
James Harden	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.19,0.11,-0.01,-0.01	0.05	-0.07	-0.00	11	67%	0.16	2	-0.17	2	100%	0.01
Thabo Sefolosha	-0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.06	0.01	-0.02	2	50%	0.02	3	-0.04	2	50%	-0.02

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Zach Randolph	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.07	0.13	0.03	9	71%	0.20	2	-0.03	6	83%	-0.00
Tony Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.10	0.07	0.00	12	65%	0.21	1	-0.04	7	71%	-0.01
Mike Conley	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.12,0.15	0.15	0.02	0.10	-0.02	20	48%	0.15	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Sam Young	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.06	0.04	0.01	9	57%	0.09	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Marc Gasol	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.09	-0.03	0.01	13	69%	0.11	1	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Shane Battier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	6	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Ish Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	0	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.00
Jason Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
O.J. Mayo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	6	44%	-0.01	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.01
Darrell Arthur	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.02	-0.00	9	33%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.5	1.8	29.8	15.8	23.2	2.3	38.5	137.9
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MEM +16.6%

MEM +2.7%

MEM +10.2%

MEM +17.4%

MEM +3.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	OKC	MEM	NBA	OKC	MEM	NBA
this game	15.1	17.3	15.5	111.0	123.0	105.7
season	15.0	15.5		108.8	106.1
opponent	15.5	15.6		103.7	105.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
OKC	15.9	13.6	15.8	15.3	15.1
MEM	16.8	15.2	21.3	16.7	17.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nick Collison	39	35	0.26	-0.76	1.01	-0.07	11	-17	28	14.1	15.8	-1.72	18.4	16.6	1.85
Eric Maynor	21	20	0.21	-0.71	0.93	0.01	7	-13	20	13.4	15.6	-2.16	17.3	17.3	0.04
Cole Aldrich	11	10	0.05	-0.55	0.60	-0.01	2	-8	10	15.1	15.1	0.00	15.7	17.5	-1.83
James Harden	64	59	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.46	12	-18	30	14.1	17.5	-3.46	18.0	15.9	2.05
Nazr Mohammed	22	23	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	0.07	-10	4	-14	18.8	13.9	4.92	17.1	17.4	-0.32
Daequan Cook	36	33	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.26	-3	-3	0	15.8	14.6	1.14	17.4	17.3	0.16
Thabo Sefolosha	48	48	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	0.03	-15	9	-24	14.9	15.3	-0.41	16.8	18.0	-1.23
Kevin Durant	80	77	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.32	-8	2	-10	15.1	15.1	-0.00	17.5	15.7	1.83
Serge Ibaka	64	63	-0.67	0.17	-0.83	-0.28	-13	7	-20	15.2	14.9	0.34	16.5	19.4	-2.84
Russell Westbrook	70	67	-0.71	0.21	-0.93	-0.33	-13	7	-20	15.6	13.4	2.16	17.3	17.3	-0.04

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Sam Young	60	62	0.84	-0.34	1.18	0.31	18	-12	30	15.8	20.6	-4.74	15.9	13.4	2.51
Zach Randolph	68	69	0.73	-0.23	0.95	0.17	19	-13	32	16.4	20.5	-4.03	15.5	13.8	1.73
Mike Conley	69	72	0.65	-0.15	0.79	0.26	13	-7	20	17.7	16.0	1.67	15.5	13.6	1.84
Shane Battier	49	52	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.28	8	-2	10	17.5	17.1	0.38	14.1	16.5	-2.40
Tony Allen	53	55	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.33	-2	8	-10	18.1	16.1	2.07	16.2	13.4	2.81
Marc Gasol	51	55	0.03	0.47	-0.45	0.03	0	6	-6	17.7	16.8	0.83	16.0	13.7	2.26
O.J. Mayo	43	46	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.02	0	6	-6	17.3	17.3	0.05	12.8	17.4	-4.53
Jason Williams	12	14	-0.03	0.53	-0.55	0.03	-2	8	-10	15.7	17.6	-1.92	14.3	15.2	-0.95
Ish Smith	6	5	-0.12	0.62	-0.74	0.03	-5	11	-16	16.7	17.4	-0.70	11.8	15.3	-3.48
Darrell Arthur	24	25	-0.39	0.89	-1.29	0.16	-19	25	-44	20.6	16.1	4.50	13.8	15.6	-1.78

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.6,0.59,0.62,0.65,0.62,0.62,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.52,0.51,0.59,0.58,0.69,0.7,0.82,0.79,0.86,0.83,0.83,0.86,0.89,0.94,0.89,0.86,0.81,0.79,0.74,0.82,0.7,0.71,0.73,0.69,0.65,0.67,0.69,0.79,0.83,0.92,1
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 89, NJN 96	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.59,0.61,0.65,0.65,0.63,0.65,0.58,0.53,0.47,0.49,0.46,0.52,0.48,0.56,0.58,0.59,0.64,0.67,0.71,0.8,0.8,0.84,0.88,0.84,0.88,0.81,0.85,0.86,0.79,0.81,0.78,0.75,0.89,0.77,0.64,0.71,0.67,0.62,0.72,0.78,0.91,1	93.8%
BOS 99, MIL 105	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.56,0.53,0.51,0.57,0.53,0.54,0.57,0.53,0.54,0.49,0.53,0.56,0.53,0.57,0.53,0.61,0.61,0.72,0.72,0.82,0.8,0.89,0.86,0.87,0.89,0.86,0.91,0.88,0.86,0.88,0.89,0.75,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.64,0.77,0.69,0.47,0.55,0.61,0.79,0.85,0.99,1	93.1%
LAC 89, MEM 98	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.49,0.53,0.57,0.6,0.57,0.6,0.54,0.63,0.62,0.59,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.6,0.61,0.66,0.7,0.76,0.73,0.74,0.77,0.78,0.83,0.9,0.84,0.85,0.84,0.82,0.78,0.79,0.85,0.87,0.91,0.8,0.73,0.69,0.71,0.53,0.69,0.84,0.97,1,1	92.9%