NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	87		Excitement	8.4 [183]		MVP	Mario Chalmers (MIA): +44.8%
Miami Heat	86		Comeback	4.4 [150]		LVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): -32.1%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Luol Deng	0.26	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.02,0.02,0.26	-0.01	0.27	-0.00	15	53%	0.34	3	-0.08	4	75%	0.02
Derrick Rose	0.12	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.14,0.2,0.16,0.12,0.12	0.04	0.08	-0.00	23	55%	0.24	3	-0.12	3	100%	0.03
Taj Gibson	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.06	0.05	0.00	3	80%	0.11	0	0.00	4	100%	0.04
Ronnie Brewer	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joakim Noah	0.02	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	-0.01	0.00	6	58%	0.05	1	-0.03	7	71%	-0.00
CJ Watson	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keith Bogans	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.00	-0.00	4	37%	-0.00	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Omer Asik	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	0	50%	0.00	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.03
Carlos Boozer	-0.14	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.1,-0.13,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.09	-0.05	0.01	15	40%	-0.07	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Korver	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.16	-0.04	-0.12	-0.00	5	30%	-0.14	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mario Chalmers	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.25,0.45	0.45	0.07	0.38	-0.00	5	85%	0.47	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.02
Chris Bosh	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.12	0.04	-0.00	14	68%	0.20	1	-0.05	6	83%	0.01
James Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	1	150%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Erick Dampier	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Bibby	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.08	-0.04	-0.00	1	0%	-0.03	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
LeBron James	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.17,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.09,-0.12	-0.12	0.09	-0.20	0.01	18	62%	-0.06	2	-0.06	6	83%	0.01
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.09	-0.05	-0.00	5	20%	-0.06	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Mike Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.08	-0.07	0.00	5	8%	-0.15	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.2,-0.2,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.03,-0.09,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.32	-0.32	-0.14	-0.18	0.00	19	45%	-0.10	7	-0.22	6	67%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.3	3.5	30.5	18.4	27.6	3.4	39.9	147.5
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA -9.4%

CHI +33.6%

CHI +21.2%

CHI +4.6%

CHI +0.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	MIA	NBA	CHI	MIA	NBA
this game	18.1	15.4	15.5	101.2	100.0	105.7
season	15.7	16.0		106.5	109.0
opponent	15.6	15.9		102.3	99.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	19.5	17.3	18.7	17.0	18.1
MIA	14.8	13.5	17.3	16.5	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ronnie Brewer	29	29	0.94	-0.44	1.39	0.89	2	-1	3	17.6	18.3	-0.71	14.3	16.0	-1.69
Keith Bogans	34	35	0.50	-0.00	0.50	0.36	5	-4	9	18.3	17.9	0.39	16.6	14.6	1.92
Luol Deng	76	76	0.43	0.07	0.37	0.52	-3	4	-7	18.3	16.4	1.88	15.4	15.9	-0.53
Taj Gibson	30	31	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.56	-5	6	-11	18.3	17.9	0.32	15.6	15.3	0.29
Joakim Noah	63	63	0.40	0.10	0.31	0.32	3	-2	5	17.8	18.7	-0.87	15.6	15.1	0.47
Derrick Rose	67	68	0.35	0.15	0.19	0.35	0	1	-1	18.4	16.8	1.63	15.3	15.8	-0.51
CJ Watson	19	18	0.15	0.35	-0.19	0.12	1	0	1	16.8	18.4	-1.63	15.8	15.3	0.51
Omer Asik	19	19	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.15	0	1	-1	18.2	18.0	0.13	15.9	15.3	0.60
Carlos Boozer	59	58	-0.35	0.85	-1.20	-0.47	4	-3	7	18.5	17.1	1.33	15.3	15.8	-0.53
Kyle Korver	34	33	-0.50	1.00	-1.49	-0.44	-2	3	-5	17.2	18.6	-1.41	15.0	15.7	-0.75

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mario Chalmers	54	56	0.31	-0.81	1.13	-0.04	12	-13	25	14.8	16.5	-1.65	19.0	16.4	2.60
James Jones	15	15	0.11	-0.61	0.73	-0.03	5	-6	11	14.1	15.7	-1.57	19.1	17.8	1.22
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	25	25	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	-0.11	-1	0	-1	15.1	15.6	-0.49	17.4	18.3	-0.98
Mike Bibby	21	21	-0.19	-0.31	0.13	-0.13	-2	1	-3	15.5	15.4	0.06	16.9	18.4	-1.59
Dwyane Wade	68	68	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	-0.34	-2	1	-3	15.7	14.3	1.39	17.7	19.3	-1.54
Mike Miller	56	57	-0.51	0.01	-0.53	-0.48	-1	0	-1	15.0	16.2	-1.23	17.8	18.5	-0.64
LeBron James	74	74	-0.55	0.05	-0.61	-0.44	-4	3	-7	15.4	15.6	-0.18	18.3	16.6	1.71
Erick Dampier	41	39	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.32	-8	7	-15	16.3	14.7	1.60	18.6	17.6	0.93
Chris Bosh	76	75	-0.57	0.07	-0.65	-0.46	-4	3	-7	15.9	12.2	3.66	17.7	20.5	-2.75

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.54,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.55,0.57,0.53,0.62,0.6,0.62,0.71,0.71,0.67,0.67,0.68,0.66,0.56,0.61,0.64,0.67,0.75,0.81,0.77,0.7,0.67,0.73,0.68,0.65,0.69,0.66,0.61,0.56,0.58,0.52,0.43,0.33,0.37,0.36,0.51,0.46,0.26,0.16,0.06,0.42,0
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 104, ATL 98	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.54,0.6,0.6,0.57,0.51,0.62,0.65,0.7,0.72,0.7,0.7,0.66,0.65,0.65,0.68,0.69,0.71,0.67,0.72,0.73,0.78,0.81,0.71,0.72,0.64,0.73,0.79,0.77,0.72,0.63,0.6,0.64,0.58,0.52,0.43,0.33,0.27,0.2,0.4,0.34,0.25,0.07,0.14,0.08,0	91.8%
DAL 108, POR 104	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.5,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.53,0.54,0.65,0.64,0.64,0.57,0.62,0.65,0.66,0.68,0.69,0.69,0.77,0.7,0.75,0.77,0.69,0.75,0.64,0.67,0.68,0.52,0.65,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.54,0.52,0.43,0.53,0.58,0.58,0.53,0.34,0.25,0.15,0.15,0.37,0	91.7%
SAC 104, MEM 98	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.57,0.57,0.55,0.57,0.65,0.65,0.71,0.68,0.66,0.7,0.7,0.64,0.62,0.76,0.76,0.75,0.66,0.64,0.54,0.59,0.63,0.74,0.74,0.69,0.67,0.61,0.69,0.65,0.69,0.66,0.56,0.68,0.7,0.57,0.62,0.47,0.32,0.26,0.29,0.45,0.25,0.22,0.22,0.42,0	91.6%