NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	103		Excitement	8.8 [134]		MVP	Ty Lawson (DEN): +34.1%
Utah Jazz	101		Comeback	3.9 [217]		LVP	Nene (DEN): -24.3%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ty Lawson	0.34	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.2,0.34	0.12	0.22	0.00	13	68%	0.36	1	-0.02	8	87%	0.07
Arron Afflalo	0.20	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.01,0.2	0.11	0.09	-0.00	12	79%	0.35	2	-0.15	0	0%	0.00
Chris Andersen	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,-0.01,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.05	0.02	0.00	6	59%	0.07	0	0.00	10	70%	-0.04
J.R. Smith	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.03	0.03	-0.01	5	50%	0.05	2	-0.04	6	67%	-0.04
Al Harrington	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	3	33%	-0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Raymond Felton	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	10	36%	-0.01	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.00
Kenyon Martin	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.08	-0.02	-0.06	-0.00	11	46%	-0.00	1	-0.07	2	50%	-0.03
Wilson Chandler	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.05	-0.03	0.00	6	50%	0.01	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Nene	-0.24	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.13,0.01,-0.03,-0.12,-0.24,-0.24	-0.05	-0.18	0.01	12	45%	-0.05	3	-0.19	5	60%	-0.15

Utah Jazz
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Devin Harris	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.23,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.09	0.03	0.04	16	62%	0.23	1	-0.15	2	50%	-0.02
CJ Miles	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.09,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.08,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.09,0.09,-0.04,0.05	0.05	0.07	-0.01	-0.00	15	61%	0.22	2	-0.17	6	100%	0.09
Kyrylo Fesenko	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.02	0.00	2	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Earl Watson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	150%	0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Al Jefferson	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.24,0.12,0	0.00	0.05	-0.05	-0.00	17	54%	0.12	1	-0.12	1	100%	0.02
Gordon Hayward	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.01	-0.03	0.00	5	60%	0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Francisco Elson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Raja Bell	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.04	0.01	7	43%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Paul Millsap	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.03	-0.06	0.01	8	56%	0.03	3	-0.12	2	100%	0.01
Andrei Kirilenko	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.1	-0.10	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	11	52%	0.04	5	-0.14	1	0%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.0	2.8	30.0	18.8	24.5	2.0	42.3	144.3
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +8.0%

DEN +3.2%

DEN +14.8%

DEN +20.9%

DEN +3.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	UTA	NBA	DEN	UTA	NBA
this game	14.3	16.3	15.5	109.6	107.4	105.7
season	14.3	15.9		110.7	106.4
opponent	15.3	15.5		108.2	106.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	13.6	14.0	16.9	12.9	14.3
UTA	17.7	17.3	14.4	15.9	16.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nene	66	67	0.77	-0.27	1.03	0.56	7	-5	12	13.9	15.2	-1.24	16.4	16.1	0.31
Arron Afflalo	68	69	0.74	-0.24	0.99	0.60	5	-3	8	13.8	15.6	-1.75	16.5	15.8	0.67
Kenyon Martin	63	63	0.73	-0.23	0.96	0.55	6	-4	10	13.9	15.2	-1.37	16.2	16.6	-0.47
Ty Lawson	65	65	0.62	-0.12	0.75	0.45	6	-4	10	14.5	14.0	0.50	16.5	16.0	0.53
Raymond Felton	61	61	0.44	0.06	0.39	0.44	0	2	-2	13.9	15.2	-1.30	15.7	17.5	-1.87
Wilson Chandler	54	54	0.06	0.44	-0.39	-0.09	5	-3	8	14.5	14.0	0.54	16.9	15.5	1.40
Al Harrington	31	31	-0.23	0.73	-0.96	-0.11	-4	6	-10	15.2	13.9	1.37	16.6	16.2	0.47
Chris Andersen	28	27	-0.27	0.77	-1.03	-0.12	-5	7	-12	15.2	13.9	1.24	16.1	16.4	-0.31
J.R. Smith	34	33	-0.37	0.87	-1.24	-0.07	-10	12	-22	15.4	13.7	1.77	15.9	16.6	-0.69

Utah Jazz
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Earl Watson	27	28	0.20	-0.70	0.90	0.05	5	-7	12	17.4	15.9	1.56	15.4	13.9	1.49
Kyrylo Fesenko	8	10	0.12	-0.62	0.73	0.09	1	-3	4	17.1	16.3	0.87	15.3	14.2	1.11
Gordon Hayward	33	33	0.06	-0.56	0.62	0.06	0	-2	2	17.0	16.0	1.08	14.7	14.1	0.55
Francisco Elson	12	10	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	0.05	-4	2	-6	16.0	16.4	-0.38	13.4	14.4	-1.02
Paul Millsap	71	72	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.27	2	-4	6	15.7	18.3	-2.67	14.0	15.3	-1.26
Andrei Kirilenko	64	63	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.33	-3	1	-4	17.0	14.8	2.20	15.2	12.5	2.72
Al Jefferson	71	71	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.43	0	-2	2	16.8	14.8	2.05	14.6	13.4	1.21
CJ Miles	54	53	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.40	-1	-1	0	15.8	17.1	-1.30	13.4	15.4	-2.01
Raja Bell	63	64	-0.62	0.12	-0.75	-0.54	-3	1	-4	15.9	17.3	-1.43	14.0	15.1	-1.11
Devin Harris	67	66	-0.70	0.20	-0.90	-0.49	-7	5	-12	15.9	17.4	-1.56	13.9	15.4	-1.49

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.44,0.42,0.42,0.41,0.42,0.45,0.46,0.41,0.38,0.42,0.38,0.35,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.31,0.35,0.39,0.42,0.39,0.44,0.36,0.36,0.3,0.34,0.31,0.28,0.3,0.36,0.42,0.32,0.28,0.24,0.33,0.44,0.58,0.62,0.62,0.8,0.77,0.79,0.65,0.73,0.32,0.22,0.68,0.42,0
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 112, NJN 106	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.48,0.41,0.42,0.41,0.37,0.33,0.38,0.38,0.36,0.34,0.34,0.38,0.29,0.35,0.29,0.37,0.3,0.34,0.31,0.26,0.27,0.22,0.19,0.25,0.2,0.15,0.19,0.29,0.38,0.35,0.34,0.4,0.28,0.46,0.48,0.47,0.62,0.73,0.63,0.65,0.4,0.38,0.29,0.55,0.42,0	89.9%
PHI 93, NYK 92	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.48,0.46,0.39,0.37,0.35,0.34,0.32,0.33,0.31,0.29,0.32,0.38,0.45,0.47,0.42,0.4,0.41,0.36,0.34,0.25,0.3,0.32,0.37,0.34,0.4,0.39,0.36,0.33,0.45,0.52,0.41,0.34,0.33,0.36,0.5,0.66,0.71,0.74,0.88,0.74,0.88,0.83,0.69,0.45,0.67,0.42,0	89.5%
HOU 97, SEA 93	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.44,0.41,0.41,0.37,0.3,0.29,0.32,0.34,0.37,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.4,0.34,0.32,0.31,0.28,0.27,0.2,0.19,0.16,0.2,0.24,0.14,0.23,0.29,0.34,0.34,0.4,0.52,0.78,0.67,0.66,0.62,0.73,0.69,0.85,0.6,0.53,0.45,0.57,0.42,0	89.1%