NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Portland Trail Blazers	105		Excitement	7.9 [257]		MVP	LaMarcus Aldridge (POR): +62.4%
Detroit Pistons	100		Comeback	2.2 [530]		LVP	Rodney Stuckey (DET): -18.8%

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LaMarcus Aldridge	0.62	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.19,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.23,0.25,0.25,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.37,0.37,0.48,0.62	0.26	0.37	0.01	17	77%	0.64	1	-0.02	13	92%	0.11
Wesley Matthews	0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.17,0.17,0.21,0.21,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.11,0.11,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.17	0.04	0.03	11	87%	0.33	3	-0.14	8	100%	0.09
Patty Mills	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.05	0.09	-0.00	5	75%	0.16	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Joel Przybilla	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	2	100%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dante Cunningham	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.02	-0.04	0.00	6	33%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rudy Fernandez	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	-0.01	8	25%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nicolas Batum	-0.10	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.03	-0.05	0.02	9	35%	-0.10	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Andre Miller	-0.13	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.17,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.16,-0.15,-0.13	-0.06	-0.08	-0.02	6	88%	0.31	9	-0.43	5	100%	0.10

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ben Gordon	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.09,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.1,0.16,0.33,0.33,0.33	0.33	0.10	0.23	0.00	10	69%	0.40	1	-0.07	6	100%	0.04
Tracy McGrady	0,0,0,0.01,0,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.06	0.02	-0.04	12	57%	0.12	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Tayshaun Prince	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	-0.01	0.00	12	54%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Greg Monroe	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.05	-0.02	0.01	6	69%	0.06	1	-0.04	1	100%	0.01
Austin Daye	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	3	67%	0.06	2	-0.05	3	100%	0.02
Ben Wallace	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	1	33%	-0.02	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.03
Chris Wilcox	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,-0.07,-0.05	-0.05	0.02	-0.07	0.00	3	80%	0.13	2	-0.18	4	50%	-0.10
Charlie Villanueva	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.07	-0.07	0.01	-0.10	-0.01	7	71%	-0.02	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Will Bynum	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.08,-0.19,-0.19,-0.12,-0.21,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.00	-0.05	0.04	11	60%	0.08	4	-0.18	3	100%	0.06
Rodney Stuckey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.19	-0.13	-0.06	0.00	3	22%	-0.07	4	-0.12	3	67%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.0	2.6	27.3	17.5	28.5	2.7	42.3	144.8
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

POR +17.4%

POR +30.0%

DET -11.9%

POR +10.1%

POR +4.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	POR	DET	NBA	POR	DET	NBA
this game	15.9	16.9	15.5	119.3	113.6	105.7
season	16.5	16.7		106.7	106.4
opponent	15.2	15.7		110.1	105.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
POR	17.5	16.1	16.4	14.1	15.9
DET	21.5	16.6	18.7	12.6	16.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Andre Miller	66	65	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.35	9	-4	13	15.7	16.3	-0.55	18.1	13.4	4.70
Nicolas Batum	72	71	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.32	8	-3	11	15.6	17.1	-1.54	17.9	12.4	5.59
Wesley Matthews	82	82	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.28	3	2	1	15.6	18.8	-3.19	16.7	19.5	-2.83
LaMarcus Aldridge	74	75	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.34	1	4	-3	15.9	15.6	0.26	17.5	13.5	3.99
Joel Przybilla	29	29	0.34	0.16	0.19	-0.01	12	-7	19	16.4	15.6	0.77	17.0	16.8	0.20
Rudy Fernandez	43	43	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.13	3	2	1	16.9	14.9	1.99	16.0	17.7	-1.78
Dante Cunningham	55	54	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.35	-5	10	-15	15.1	17.1	-1.92	15.9	18.4	-2.47
Patty Mills	19	21	-0.18	0.68	-0.86	-0.00	-6	11	-17	17.2	15.5	1.65	12.2	18.3	-6.14

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tayshaun Prince	43	43	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.05	-1	-4	3	20.7	13.2	7.50	16.0	15.7	0.36
Ben Wallace	31	30	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	-0.01	-3	-2	-1	20.9	14.7	6.19	16.9	15.3	1.57
Tracy McGrady	44	45	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	-0.10	-1	-4	3	20.5	13.2	7.32	16.6	15.1	1.55
Greg Monroe	59	60	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	-0.12	-1	-4	3	17.9	14.8	3.09	15.8	16.0	-0.20
Ben Gordon	47	48	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.38	3	-8	11	14.4	19.7	-5.28	15.9	15.8	0.07
Austin Daye	42	41	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.29	0	-5	5	12.8	20.5	-7.71	15.1	16.5	-1.34
Will Bynum	46	46	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.15	-6	1	-7	13.5	20.5	-7.05	15.6	16.2	-0.63
Chris Wilcox	29	28	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.23	-4	-1	-3	14.8	17.9	-3.09	16.0	15.8	0.20
Rodney Stuckey	43	42	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	-0.06	-10	5	-15	19.1	14.7	4.41	16.0	15.7	0.26
Charlie Villanueva	56	57	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	-0.37	-2	-3	1	14.9	20.2	-5.27	15.2	17.1	-1.85

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.45,0.53,0.6,0.6,0.61,0.61,0.62,0.58,0.58,0.52,0.51,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.53,0.47,0.39,0.41,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.39,0.42,0.35,0.35,0.31,0.34,0.22,0.21,0.34,0.22,0.14,0.38,0.47,0.59,0.54,0.39,0.31,0.29,0.44,0.27,0
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 83, IND 78	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.48,0.46,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.53,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.44,0.48,0.51,0.46,0.44,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.42,0.3,0.3,0.42,0.29,0.19,0.3,0.23,0.18,0.13,0.16,0.21,0.33,0.42,0.47,0.35,0.35,0.31,0.37,0.35,0.16,0	92.2%
MIA 87, LAC 85	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.5,0.59,0.6,0.57,0.61,0.57,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.46,0.44,0.47,0.45,0.44,0.37,0.44,0.48,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.36,0.35,0.29,0.16,0.34,0.3,0.32,0.34,0.26,0.25,0.29,0.23,0.36,0.35,0.4,0.31,0.22,0.33,0.42,0	91.7%
ATL 114, ORL 110	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.43,0.48,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.53,0.47,0.51,0.43,0.44,0.42,0.45,0.47,0.39,0.37,0.36,0.44,0.39,0.51,0.56,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.4,0.35,0.32,0.28,0.23,0.33,0.29,0.19,0.22,0.25,0.42,0.37,0.47,0.46,0.54,0.47,0.37,0.43,0.26,0	91.6%