NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	87		Excitement	7.7 [275]		MVP	Eddie Jones (MIA): +17.2%
Los Angeles Clippers	85		Comeback	1.7 [315]		LVP	Lamar Odom (MIA): -20.7%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Eddie Jones	0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.17	0.01	0.15	-0.00	16	55%	0.23	2	-0.05	6	83%	0.03
Udonis Haslem	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.01	0.04	0.00	8	55%	0.05	0	0.00	6	100%	0.07
Caron Butler	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.00	0.02	0.01	16	44%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brian Grant	0.00	0,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	12	48%	0.00	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Malik Allen	-0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	7	43%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bimbo Coles	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rafer Alston	-0.11	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.07	-0.05	-0.00	12	31%	-0.11	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Lamar Odom	-0.21	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.16,-0.21	-0.11	-0.10	-0.00	12	39%	-0.11	3	-0.10	4	75%	-0.02

Los Angeles Clippers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Melvin Ely	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.03	0.00	1	100%	0.05	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Doug Overton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.02	-0.00	2	50%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Eddie House	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,-0.01,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.02	-0.00	13	57%	0.08	2	-0.09	4	100%	0.05
Bobby Simmons	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	5	40%	-0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Elton Brand	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.04	-0.01	15	55%	-0.01	2	-0.05	10	60%	-0.06
Chris Kaman	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.06	0.00	5	60%	-0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Marko Jaric	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.05	-0.03	0.01	6	50%	-0.01	2	-0.07	4	25%	-0.04
Chris Wilcox	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.08	-0.03	0.00	6	17%	-0.08	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Corey Maggette	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.18,-0.15,-0.08,-0.08,-0.16	-0.16	-0.11	-0.09	-0.04	19	43%	-0.11	2	-0.05	11	82%	0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.3	1.8	25.3	14.8	29.2	2.5	33.4	134.3
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +0.4%

MIA +5.1%

MIA +5.8%

MIA +24.7%

MIA +14.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	LAC	NBA	MIA	LAC	NBA
this game	17.3	16.3	15.7	101.2	100.0	100.5
season	16.2	15.5		99.3	101.3
opponent	15.4	15.9		106.0	98.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	14.7	18.6	15.5	21.6	17.3
LAC	16.7	16.6	15.8	16.3	16.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rafer Alston	77	76	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.40	5	-3	8	17.0	20.2	-3.21	16.4	15.7	0.74
Udonis Haslem	63	62	0.51	-0.01	0.53	0.40	4	-2	6	18.0	15.6	2.38	15.9	17.5	-1.63
Lamar Odom	70	67	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.38	4	-2	6	16.7	20.2	-3.56	15.8	18.2	-2.33
Eddie Jones	65	68	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.43	1	1	0	17.8	16.0	1.78	16.4	15.9	0.56
Brian Grant	59	57	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.38	0	2	-2	17.6	16.9	0.67	16.5	16.1	0.38
Caron Butler	50	48	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.00	5	-3	8	17.2	17.6	-0.45	16.9	15.6	1.25
Malik Allen	37	38	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.18	-6	8	-14	16.7	17.9	-1.18	16.8	15.9	0.93
Bimbo Coles	9	9	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	0.05	-3	5	-8	20.2	17.0	3.21	15.7	16.4	-0.74

Los Angeles Clippers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bobby Simmons	28	31	0.01	-0.51	0.52	0.10	-3	1	-4	15.9	16.5	-0.60	16.6	17.7	-1.10
Melvin Ely	5	7	-0.04	-0.46	0.43	-0.04	0	-2	2	18.2	16.2	1.99	22.7	16.9	5.84
Doug Overton	19	20	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	0.02	-7	5	-12	18.2	15.8	2.42	16.9	17.5	-0.52
Chris Wilcox	36	36	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	-0.01	-8	6	-14	17.1	15.8	1.36	14.8	19.2	-4.42
Eddie House	59	59	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.43	3	-5	8	15.8	17.6	-1.80	17.4	17.2	0.18
Chris Kaman	47	46	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.48	4	-6	10	16.3	16.4	-0.17	19.6	14.7	4.91
Elton Brand	73	74	-0.42	-0.08	-0.35	-0.42	0	-2	2	16.0	18.5	-2.53	16.9	20.1	-3.18
Marko Jaric	80	80	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.46	1	-3	4	16.4	14.8	1.63	17.5	15.0	2.53
Corey Maggette	78	77	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.48	0	-2	2	16.2	17.4	-1.20	17.3	17.9	-0.60

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.5,0.59,0.6,0.57,0.61,0.57,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.46,0.44,0.47,0.45,0.44,0.37,0.44,0.48,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.36,0.35,0.29,0.16,0.34,0.3,0.32,0.34,0.26,0.25,0.29,0.23,0.36,0.35,0.4,0.31,0.22,0.33,0.42,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 83, CHI 80	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.5,0.5,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.42,0.43,0.43,0.38,0.34,0.33,0.31,0.3,0.31,0.32,0.36,0.36,0.39,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.55,0.42,0.39,0.42,0.38,0.28,0.37,0.37,0.44,0.34,0.3,0.3,0.33,0.26,0.31,0.19,0.27,0.25,0.37,0.43,0.42,0	92.1%
WAS 83, IND 78	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.48,0.46,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.53,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.44,0.48,0.51,0.46,0.44,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.42,0.3,0.3,0.42,0.29,0.19,0.3,0.23,0.18,0.13,0.16,0.21,0.33,0.42,0.47,0.35,0.35,0.31,0.37,0.35,0.16,0	91.9%
ATL 110, IND 104	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.59,0.59,0.63,0.53,0.47,0.44,0.48,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.51,0.46,0.42,0.4,0.42,0.36,0.45,0.39,0.48,0.45,0.31,0.27,0.33,0.4,0.42,0.38,0.29,0.33,0.27,0.26,0.29,0.27,0.19,0.15,0.22,0.42,0	91.8%