NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Phoenix Suns	95		Excitement	5.7 [712]		MVP	Hakim Warrick (PHX): +16.9%
Utah Jazz	83		Comeback	6.3 [91]		LVP	Al Jefferson (UTA): -20.0%

Phoenix Suns
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Hakim Warrick	0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.14,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.2,0.19,0.19,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.09	0.09	0.00	8	73%	0.19	1	-0.02	6	67%	-0.01
Steve Nash	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.09	0.09	0.03	11	69%	0.18	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.01
Robin Lopez	0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.06,0.04,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.01	0.02	-0.02	13	45%	0.05	0	0.00	5	40%	-0.05
Marcin Gortat	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.02	0.00	10	60%	0.09	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Grant Hill	-0.00	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.01	-0.02	6	56%	0.03	3	-0.03	4	100%	0.01
Vince Carter	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	8	37%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Zabian Dowdell	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	8	33%	-0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Channing Frye	-0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.08	-0.01	-0.02	11	23%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mickael Pietrus	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.02	-0.02	0.05	7	36%	-0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jared Dudley	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.06	-0.04	-0.00	7	25%	-0.10	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02

Utah Jazz
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gordon Hayward	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.14	0.02	0.00	5	100%	0.16	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Andrei Kirilenko	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.00	-0.01	3	89%	0.07	2	-0.02	3	67%	-0.01
Jeremy Evans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	0.00	0.02	-0.00	2	50%	0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Paul Millsap	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	-0.01	-0.01	10	70%	0.10	4	-0.08	3	67%	-0.02
CJ Miles	0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	-0.01	0.01	19	50%	0.02	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Deron Williams	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.02	0.02	19	50%	0.05	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Kyrylo Fesenko	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Francisco Elson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Earl Watson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.16,-0.16,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.19	-0.11	-0.09	-0.00	3	0%	-0.08	3	-0.12	0	0%	0.00
Al Jefferson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.20	-0.17	-0.07	-0.04	14	14%	-0.16	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.9	2.6	28.8	18.8	26.2	3.5	28.5	133.3
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

UTA -2.8%

PHX +7.9%

PHX +17.5%

PHX +22.6%

PHX +4.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	PHX	UTA	NBA	PHX	UTA	NBA
this game	15.6	17.1	15.5	108.0	94.3	105.7
season	14.5	15.9		108.0	106.4
opponent	15.3	15.7		108.2	109.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
PHX	12.5	15.9	16.4	18.2	15.6
UTA	16.3	16.8	17.9	17.8	17.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Phoenix Suns
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mickael Pietrus	38	37	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.02	15	-3	18	17.0	14.5	2.50	17.8	16.7	1.14
Hakim Warrick	38	37	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.02	15	-3	18	17.0	14.5	2.50	17.8	16.7	1.14
Steve Nash	62	62	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.09	12	0	12	15.5	15.8	-0.27	16.8	18.1	-1.32
Grant Hill	60	61	0.33	0.17	0.17	0.16	6	6	0	15.4	16.0	-0.67	16.7	18.2	-1.55
Marcin Gortat	57	57	0.28	0.22	0.07	0.02	9	3	6	15.7	15.4	0.35	17.3	16.9	0.38
Robin Lopez	31	31	0.22	0.28	-0.07	0.13	3	9	-6	15.4	15.7	-0.35	16.9	17.3	-0.38
Jared Dudley	40	39	0.16	0.34	-0.17	0.05	4	8	-4	14.8	16.2	-1.34	17.9	16.5	1.39
Zabian Dowdell	26	26	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.06	0	12	-12	15.8	15.5	0.27	18.1	16.8	1.32
Vince Carter	38	39	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.07	-1	13	-14	15.3	15.8	-0.56	16.5	17.7	-1.19
Channing Frye	50	51	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.13	-3	15	-18	14.5	17.0	-2.50	16.7	17.8	-1.14

Utah Jazz
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Andrei Kirilenko	28	27	0.35	-0.85	1.20	-0.15	17	-29	46	16.1	17.6	-1.47	13.2	16.6	-3.45
Kyrylo Fesenko	20	20	-0.04	-0.46	0.41	0.02	-2	-10	8	18.9	16.6	2.27	12.6	16.4	-3.79
Francisco Elson	21	19	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	0.06	-4	-8	4	19.3	16.5	2.87	12.4	16.5	-4.10
Jeremy Evans	14	13	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	-0.02	-5	-7	2	16.2	17.3	-1.11	18.2	15.1	3.02
Deron Williams	76	76	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	-0.09	-7	-5	-2	16.9	18.7	-1.86	15.4	16.5	-1.07
CJ Miles	67	67	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.11	-9	-3	-6	17.1	17.1	0.01	15.8	14.9	0.95
Earl Watson	26	25	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.16	-9	-3	-6	19.2	16.3	2.85	17.6	14.8	2.77
Al Jefferson	67	68	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.20	-8	-4	-4	16.6	18.8	-2.12	16.4	12.6	3.79
Paul Millsap	68	69	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	-0.17	-10	-2	-8	16.5	19.5	-3.04	16.5	12.4	4.10
Gordon Hayward	53	56	-0.59	0.09	-0.68	0.08	-23	11	-34	17.3	16.9	0.39	15.2	16.3	-1.10

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.58,0.61,0.64,0.65,0.69,0.66,0.69,0.69,0.73,0.76,0.71,0.74,0.7,0.76,0.77,0.77,0.74,0.66,0.66,0.75,0.8,0.81,0.84,0.82,0.76,0.69,0.64,0.62,0.58,0.58,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.4,0.48,0.42,0.48,0.38,0.33,0.32,0.36,0.19,0.1,0.04,0.02,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
IND 92, GSW 81	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.57,0.57,0.63,0.65,0.63,0.64,0.7,0.73,0.71,0.68,0.67,0.7,0.71,0.75,0.72,0.77,0.83,0.76,0.77,0.79,0.82,0.75,0.74,0.72,0.52,0.52,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.4,0.58,0.48,0.33,0.28,0.23,0.31,0.19,0.14,0.03,0.05,0.03,0,0	93.4%
MEM 103, DAL 97	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.54,0.56,0.6,0.57,0.53,0.63,0.65,0.71,0.64,0.66,0.7,0.74,0.66,0.62,0.65,0.74,0.81,0.82,0.84,0.82,0.78,0.73,0.74,0.63,0.61,0.55,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.45,0.44,0.48,0.52,0.46,0.38,0.51,0.47,0.37,0.21,0.15,0.13,0.08,0.04,0,0,0	92.2%
NOP 121, HOU 116	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.57,0.52,0.61,0.58,0.61,0.69,0.61,0.69,0.71,0.66,0.65,0.68,0.69,0.68,0.69,0.76,0.74,0.75,0.82,0.84,0.82,0.73,0.7,0.68,0.77,0.73,0.7,0.64,0.62,0.65,0.59,0.59,0.44,0.41,0.38,0.3,0.29,0.24,0.23,0.14,0.2,0.1,0.03,0,0,0,0	92.1%