NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

New Orleans Hornets	99		Excitement	7.9 [265]		MVP	Willie Green (NOH): +18.4%
Orlando Magic	93		Comeback	2.6 [198]		LVP	Jameer Nelson (ORL): -22.9%

New Orleans Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Willie Green	0.18	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.03,0.15,0.15,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.18,0.18	0.08	0.11	0.01	20	59%	0.23	2	-0.04	1	100%	0.00
David Andersen	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.07	0.04	-0.01	7	71%	0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jarrett Jack	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.08	-0.02	0.00	6	93%	0.18	3	-0.13	2	100%	0.01
David West	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.02,0.02,0.03	0.05	-0.02	-0.00	13	53%	0.03	0	0.00	6	83%	0.00
DJ Mbenga	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marco Belinelli	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01	-0.02	0.02	-0.01	5	30%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sasha Pavlovic	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Gray	-0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.01	-0.00	5	40%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jason Smith	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	0	50%	-0.00	1	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Chris Paul	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08	0.01	-0.08	0.01	11	50%	-0.02	2	-0.07	8	87%	0.03
Trevor Ariza	-0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.18,-0.18	-0.11	-0.06	0.01	16	29%	-0.16	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwight Howard	0,0,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.06	0.04	0.00	12	56%	0.12	1	-0.02	12	33%	-0.11
JJ Redick	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.01,-0.01,0.03	0.03	0.04	-0.02	-0.01	10	58%	0.06	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.07
Earl Clark	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.09,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.04	-0.05	-0.02	9	61%	0.11	1	-0.10	5	80%	0.02
Gilbert Arenas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	9	52%	0.04	2	-0.05	3	100%	0.01
Jason Richardson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	0.01	-0.00	9	33%	-0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Hedo Turkoglu	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.16	-0.16	0.05	-0.19	0.02	10	76%	0.07	4	-0.23	1	100%	0.00
Ryan Anderson	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16	-0.16	-0.08	-0.09	-0.01	8	31%	-0.11	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Jameer Nelson	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,0,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.22,-0.23	-0.23	-0.13	-0.12	-0.02	11	32%	-0.08	4	-0.15	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.5	0.6	31.4	16.8	23.8	1.8	36.2	139.1
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

NOH +22.3%

NOH +1.7%

NOH +3.3%

NOH +25.8%

ORL -3.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	NOH	ORL	NBA	NOH	ORL	NBA
this game	17.0	13.8	15.5	105.3	100.0	105.7
season	16.2	15.2		104.6	106.3
opponent	16.2	15.9		101.1	104.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
NOH	16.3	16.8	17.5	17.5	17.0
ORL	14.4	12.5	13.0	15.3	13.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

New Orleans Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Paul	72	71	0.73	-0.23	0.96	0.38	12	-6	18	16.7	18.0	-1.25	13.4	15.1	-1.77
Aaron Gray	56	56	0.66	-0.16	0.82	0.36	10	-4	14	17.2	16.7	0.49	13.7	13.9	-0.27
David West	69	69	0.65	-0.15	0.80	0.30	12	-6	18	17.2	16.6	0.60	13.7	14.0	-0.29
Trevor Ariza	82	79	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.42	2	4	-2	17.0	16.7	0.29	13.2	17.4	-4.21
Willie Green	70	70	0.45	0.06	0.39	0.47	-1	7	-8	17.2	16.5	0.73	14.1	12.7	1.45
Jarrett Jack	31	31	0.01	0.49	-0.48	-0.08	3	3	0	17.8	16.6	1.25	14.0	13.7	0.27
Jason Smith	18	18	-0.01	0.51	-0.53	-0.07	2	4	-2	13.9	17.7	-3.85	14.7	13.6	1.09
DJ Mbenga	13	11	-0.06	0.56	-0.61	-0.03	-1	7	-8	19.2	16.7	2.50	13.7	13.8	-0.07
David Andersen	23	23	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	-0.00	-2	8	-10	17.5	16.8	0.63	14.1	13.7	0.46
Marco Belinelli	26	27	-0.08	0.58	-0.65	-0.14	2	4	-2	15.4	17.6	-2.23	15.4	13.1	2.34
Sasha Pavlovic	10	10	-0.26	0.76	-1.02	0.00	-9	15	-24	18.6	16.8	1.79	13.0	13.9	-0.88

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Gilbert Arenas	36	34	0.01	-0.51	0.51	0.12	-4	-2	-2	15.0	13.0	2.03	16.1	17.5	-1.34
Ryan Anderson	56	56	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.28	9	-15	24	13.1	14.9	-1.84	18.0	15.5	2.52
Jason Richardson	63	66	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	-0.06	-2	-4	2	14.4	12.5	1.85	17.9	14.9	3.05
Earl Clark	49	49	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.06	-9	3	-12	14.4	13.1	1.27	16.6	17.5	-0.90
JJ Redick	59	59	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.30	-5	-1	-4	13.5	14.3	-0.76	15.7	19.2	-3.46
Jameer Nelson	57	60	-0.51	0.01	-0.51	-0.45	-2	-4	2	13.0	15.0	-2.03	17.5	16.1	1.34
Hedo Turkoglu	64	65	-0.52	0.02	-0.53	-0.31	-7	1	-8	13.5	14.5	-1.06	16.8	17.4	-0.65
Dwight Howard	81	81	-0.58	0.08	-0.66	-0.29	-10	4	-14	13.9	12.8	1.09	16.9	17.5	-0.62

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.48,0.56,0.58,0.43,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.4,0.36,0.4,0.44,0.47,0.46,0.52,0.48,0.44,0.44,0.39,0.44,0.25,0.31,0.21,0.17,0.19,0.21,0.26,0.35,0.31,0.37,0.4,0.44,0.5,0.52,0.53,0.62,0.63,0.53,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.37,0.24,0.04,0
Game		Similarity Score
NJN 94, BOS 87	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.43,0.48,0.44,0.43,0.39,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.46,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.58,0.54,0.42,0.47,0.48,0.46,0.44,0.33,0.2,0.21,0.25,0.15,0.11,0.19,0.21,0.25,0.38,0.44,0.48,0.6,0.54,0.52,0.46,0.48,0.47,0.41,0.47,0.54,0.39,0.37,0.16,0.02,0	92.2%
BOS 92, MIA 85	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.49,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.56,0.55,0.51,0.53,0.59,0.52,0.48,0.42,0.36,0.39,0.3,0.29,0.26,0.22,0.3,0.33,0.32,0.41,0.42,0.49,0.4,0.44,0.42,0.48,0.62,0.71,0.68,0.59,0.46,0.6,0.69,0.45,0.23,0.04,0	91.9%
TOR 95, MIA 91	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.37,0.41,0.45,0.49,0.45,0.4,0.42,0.4,0.38,0.42,0.4,0.38,0.46,0.46,0.51,0.39,0.36,0.3,0.3,0.25,0.21,0.21,0.15,0.22,0.27,0.21,0.2,0.19,0.37,0.26,0.4,0.5,0.52,0.62,0.8,0.68,0.59,0.53,0.4,0.31,0.55,0.23,0.09,0	91.9%