NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Indiana Pacers	112		Excitement	8.1 [235]		MVP	LeBron James (MIA): +31.0%
Miami Heat	117		Comeback	10.3 [362]		LVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): -8.8%

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tyler Hansbrough	0.22	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.13,0.16,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.22,0.25,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.16	0.07	0.00	6	95%	0.25	1	-0.03	7	86%	0.02
Danny Granger	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.25,0.25,0.24,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.18,0.18,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.14	0.09	-0.01	-0.05	16	59%	0.14	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Josh McRoberts	0.05	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.03,-0.03,0.05	0.08	-0.01	0.02	7	86%	0.08	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Dahntay Jones	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.06	-0.02	0.00	9	55%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
A.J. Price	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.02	-0.01	4	62%	0.06	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Roy Hibbert	-0.01	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.02	-0.03	-0.00	14	59%	0.06	3	-0.07	6	67%	-0.02
Jeff Foster	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Paul George	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	0.02	-0.00	10	36%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Mike Dunleavy	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	2	50%	0.01	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Darren Collison	-0.09	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09	-0.05	-0.06	-0.02	15	45%	-0.01	3	-0.08	3	100%	0.04

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LeBron James	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.3,0.26,0.24,0.24,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.24,0.22,0.24,0.24,0.26,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.21,0.16,0.16,0.16,0,0.09,0.09,0.31	0.31	0.19	0.13	0.01	23	69%	0.52	4	-0.21	13	69%	0.00
Erick Dampier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.06	0.06	0.00	3	100%	0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mario Chalmers	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.09	0.02	-0.00	12	62%	0.11	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
James Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	6	57%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Mike Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.03	0.03	0.04	-0.01	-0.00	7	57%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Bosh	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	14	59%	0.11	3	-0.09	4	75%	-0.01
Joel Anthony	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eddie House	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	0.01	1	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09	-0.09	-0.06	-0.02	0.00	17	44%	-0.00	3	-0.09	5	60%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.5	1.8	29.8	15.7	24.3	1.5	38.4	136.9
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +28.5%

MIA +3.0%

MIA +22.7%

IND -2.6%

IND -1.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	IND	MIA	NBA	IND	MIA	NBA
this game	14.6	15.6	15.5	116.7	123.2	105.7
season	14.7	16.0		103.1	109.0
opponent	15.6	15.4		102.3	104.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
IND	15.1	13.5	11.8	18.6	14.6
MIA	14.3	14.7	17.7	15.7	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mike Dunleavy	31	32	0.29	-0.79	1.08	-0.06	12	-17	29	12.0	15.8	-3.77	17.7	14.5	3.27
A.J. Price	23	23	0.13	-0.63	0.77	0.02	4	-9	13	16.4	14.0	2.38	16.0	15.4	0.61
Jeff Foster	33	33	0.06	-0.56	0.62	-0.06	4	-9	13	15.0	14.3	0.68	16.5	15.1	1.39
Tyler Hansbrough	48	45	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.12	-4	-1	-3	14.5	14.7	-0.25	16.2	15.0	1.18
Dahntay Jones	37	38	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.38	4	-9	13	17.7	12.6	5.03	15.2	15.8	-0.66
Josh McRoberts	49	49	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.26	-1	-4	3	14.4	14.8	-0.36	15.3	15.9	-0.61
Paul George	48	45	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	0.06	-14	9	-23	14.5	14.6	-0.12	14.6	16.4	-1.78
Roy Hibbert	61	62	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	-0.26	-7	2	-9	14.7	14.3	0.38	15.1	16.5	-1.39
Darren Collison	73	72	-0.63	0.13	-0.77	-0.37	-9	4	-13	14.0	16.4	-2.38	15.4	16.0	-0.61
Danny Granger	77	76	-0.74	0.24	-0.99	-0.33	-14	9	-23	14.1	16.7	-2.68	15.2	16.9	-1.71

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
LeBron James	83	84	0.80	-0.30	1.11	0.28	18	-13	31	15.4	17.1	-1.72	14.4	15.7	-1.24
Mike Miller	40	42	0.77	-0.27	1.04	0.42	12	-7	19	16.4	14.9	1.50	16.0	13.5	2.48
Erick Dampier	47	48	0.72	-0.22	0.93	0.31	14	-9	23	15.7	15.4	0.33	16.2	13.0	3.21
Chris Bosh	81	81	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.41	-2	7	-9	15.4	16.8	-1.42	14.8	13.6	1.17
Dwyane Wade	81	81	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.41	-2	7	-9	15.4	16.8	-1.42	14.8	13.6	1.17
James Jones	22	22	0.05	0.45	-0.40	-0.04	3	2	1	16.2	15.4	0.84	13.9	14.8	-0.87
Mario Chalmers	61	62	-0.02	0.52	-0.55	-0.14	4	1	3	15.3	16.0	-0.70	13.4	16.7	-3.33
Joel Anthony	13	13	-0.12	0.62	-0.73	0.03	-5	10	-15	15.6	15.6	0.04	12.5	14.9	-2.45
Eddie House	13	14	-0.14	0.64	-0.79	0.12	-9	14	-23	15.9	15.5	0.40	13.9	14.7	-0.85
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	34	33	-0.26	0.76	-1.02	-0.03	-8	13	-21	15.7	15.5	0.24	13.8	15.0	-1.21

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.46,0.46,0.51,0.45,0.51,0.53,0.45,0.51,0.6,0.6,0.51,0.45,0.33,0.42,0.37,0.34,0.39,0.33,0.17,0.25,0.46,0.43,0.43,0.36,0.42,0.39,0.23,0.26,0.13,0.11,0.14,0.15,0.22,0.19,0.15,0.24,0.23,0.26,0.24,0.39,0.55,0.55,0.85,0.9,1
Game		Similarity Score
SEA 98, HOU 100	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.5,0.48,0.55,0.59,0.51,0.57,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.57,0.56,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.42,0.39,0.34,0.36,0.36,0.42,0.41,0.27,0.37,0.31,0.36,0.33,0.33,0.21,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.21,0.19,0.13,0.14,0.17,0.24,0.26,0.29,0.39,0.53,0.72,0.67,0.91,1	92.2%
NJN 104, WAS 108	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.49,0.56,0.59,0.61,0.57,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.52,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.42,0.44,0.48,0.39,0.29,0.26,0.27,0.27,0.3,0.38,0.43,0.39,0.39,0.36,0.32,0.29,0.31,0.26,0.26,0.28,0.34,0.15,0.25,0.17,0.32,0.21,0.19,0.34,0.68,0.55,0.77,0.92,1	92.1%
ORL 97, DET 100	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.55,0.54,0.52,0.53,0.51,0.58,0.49,0.4,0.39,0.31,0.39,0.46,0.42,0.44,0.49,0.43,0.43,0.42,0.3,0.36,0.38,0.26,0.19,0.27,0.14,0.21,0.19,0.25,0.24,0.29,0.23,0.31,0.35,0.39,0.69,0.45,0.77,0.91,1	91.8%