NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Houston Rockets	108		Excitement	5.1 [824]		MVP	Carmelo Anthony (DEN): +16.5%
Denver Nuggets	103		Comeback	1.5 [382]		LVP	Al Harrington (DEN): -10.5%

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Martin	0.11	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.10	0.02	0.00	26	58%	0.18	3	-0.07	12	75%	0.01
Luis Scola	0.11	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.11,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.11,0.13,0.11,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.05	0.07	0.01	16	62%	0.19	4	-0.08	8	87%	0.03
Charles Hayes	0.08	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.07	0.01	0.00	8	67%	0.08	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Chase Budinger	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.06	-0.00	-0.01	9	61%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Courtney Lee	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.05	0.00	-0.01	5	70%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Lowry	-0.02	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02	-0.05	0.00	-0.02	9	39%	0.00	1	-0.02	10	80%	-0.00
Brad Miller	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	2	43%	-0.01	1	-0.03	3	33%	-0.02
Patrick Patterson	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Ish Smith	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Shane Battier	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	4	0%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Carmelo Anthony	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.06,0.09,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.13,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.17	0.17	0.31	-0.00	0.15	24	76%	0.25	4	-0.09	18	89%	0.03
Chauncey Billups	0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.00	0.02	3	83%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Carter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Andersen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	0	50%	0.00	2	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Arron Afflalo	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.02	0.01	3	67%	0.01	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Gary Forbes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.10	-0.00	-0.02	4	8%	-0.06	1	-0.03	4	25%	-0.03
Ty Lawson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.08,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.01	-0.03	0.05	13	53%	-0.02	3	-0.07	10	70%	-0.03
Kenyon Martin	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.08	-0.01	-0.00	8	33%	-0.04	2	-0.05	2	0%	-0.03
J.R. Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.11	-0.01	-0.02	9	30%	-0.06	2	-0.04	5	60%	-0.03
Al Harrington	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.11	-0.11	-0.07	-0.03	0.01	12	38%	-0.06	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.4	2.4	31.8	15.7	30.2	2.3	41.5	147.2
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU +43.3%

HOU +0.2%

DEN -6.9%

HOU +15.4%

DEN -2.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	HOU	DEN	NBA	HOU	DEN	NBA
this game	13.8	13.7	15.5	102.9	99.0	105.7
season	15.2	14.3		109.5	110.7
opponent	15.5	14.9		106.1	107.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
HOU	14.0	12.7	13.0	15.5	13.8
DEN	15.3	14.5	15.2	10.2	13.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Luis Scola	84	83	0.47	0.03	0.43	0.23	8	-3	11	14.1	12.8	1.36	13.9	13.0	0.83
Charles Hayes	73	72	0.43	0.07	0.35	0.25	6	-1	7	13.8	14.0	-0.17	13.9	13.2	0.71
Kevin Martin	88	87	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.37	1	4	-3	14.0	12.8	1.22	13.3	15.8	-2.45
Kyle Lowry	85	84	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.33	2	3	-1	14.0	13.0	0.99	13.0	16.6	-3.58
Shane Battier	43	43	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.21	4	1	3	14.2	13.6	0.65	12.7	14.4	-1.73
Courtney Lee	41	40	0.15	0.35	-0.19	0.21	-2	7	-9	14.1	13.7	0.41	12.7	14.3	-1.60
Chase Budinger	50	48	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.01	3	2	1	13.2	14.4	-1.20	15.0	12.6	2.47
Ish Smith	25	26	0.09	0.41	-0.31	0.09	0	5	-5	13.2	14.0	-0.85	14.5	13.5	1.00
Brad Miller	19	19	0.07	0.43	-0.35	-0.01	3	2	1	13.3	14.0	-0.65	16.3	13.1	3.19
Patrick Patterson	17	18	0.06	0.44	-0.39	0.06	0	5	-5	12.6	14.1	-1.50	14.4	13.6	0.89

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Anthony Carter	20	20	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.16	5	-10	15	12.5	14.0	-1.44	15.0	13.6	1.49
Chauncey Billups	19	18	-0.05	-0.45	0.39	0.04	-3	-2	-1	15.2	13.4	1.83	14.4	13.7	0.65
Gary Forbes	26	24	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	-0.13	1	-6	7	11.1	14.6	-3.46	12.8	14.2	-1.37
Chris Andersen	40	42	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.08	-3	-2	-1	14.8	13.0	1.81	14.2	13.6	0.53
Kenyon Martin	45	45	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	-0.04	-6	1	-7	15.4	12.4	3.02	13.2	14.4	-1.21
J.R. Smith	77	78	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	-0.31	2	-7	9	13.0	15.7	-2.74	13.4	15.2	-1.80
Carmelo Anthony	85	86	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.26	-3	-2	-1	13.7	13.8	-0.16	14.1	12.6	1.55
Ty Lawson	75	77	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	-0.35	-1	-4	3	13.1	15.3	-2.26	13.8	13.9	-0.06
Arron Afflalo	58	60	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.23	-6	1	-7	13.9	13.4	0.54	14.8	12.6	2.14
Al Harrington	75	75	-0.56	0.06	-0.61	-0.23	-11	6	-17	14.1	12.6	1.51	13.4	14.9	-1.52

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.5,0.53,0.53,0.57,0.49,0.45,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.35,0.34,0.41,0.49,0.39,0.39,0.41,0.49,0.35,0.37,0.39,0.33,0.14,0.15,0.14,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.07,0.04,0.07,0.06,0.08,0.09,0.08,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
NOK 87, HOU 74	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.48,0.45,0.48,0.45,0.53,0.49,0.53,0.57,0.47,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.44,0.42,0.37,0.34,0.36,0.33,0.36,0.46,0.4,0.32,0.36,0.27,0.21,0.13,0.15,0.16,0.11,0.06,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	94.7%
OKC 101, BOS 83	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.5,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.52,0.58,0.54,0.51,0.44,0.37,0.44,0.36,0.29,0.36,0.42,0.44,0.42,0.38,0.4,0.39,0.25,0.19,0.18,0.12,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	94.7%
UTA 91, POR 77	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.54,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.55,0.49,0.52,0.53,0.45,0.38,0.4,0.39,0.37,0.41,0.41,0.44,0.33,0.36,0.37,0.34,0.34,0.39,0.36,0.33,0.21,0.2,0.14,0.17,0.12,0.07,0.04,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.01,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	94.7%