NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	110		Excitement	5.3 [782]		MVP	Dwight Howard (ORL): +14.4%
Washington Wizards	92		Comeback	1.6 [912]		LVP	Hedo Turkoglu (ORL): -12.7%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwight Howard	0.14	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.12	0.04	0.01	11	81%	0.19	3	-0.05	5	40%	-0.04
JJ Redick	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.10	0.03	0.02	8	83%	0.12	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Jason Richardson	0.04	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.09	-0.00	0.05	12	60%	0.04	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.01
Ryan Anderson	0.00	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0	0.07	-0.00	0.06	14	63%	0.05	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Malik Allen	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Earl Clark	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	-0.00	-0.02	12	37%	-0.02	1	-0.01	3	0%	-0.05
Gilbert Arenas	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.09	-0.00	-0.03	12	38%	-0.01	3	-0.05	2	100%	0.00
Jameer Nelson	-0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.02	-0.00	12	36%	-0.07	1	-0.00	1	0%	0.00
Hedo Turkoglu	-0.13	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.07	-0.04	0.03	10	32%	-0.10	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kirk Hinrich	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.06	-0.02	-0.04	13	65%	0.15	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Al Thornton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.00	0.00	2	67%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Cartier Martin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Seraphin	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Hilton Armstrong	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rashard Lewis	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.05	0.01	0.07	10	64%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Andray Blatche	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.03	-0.01	0.03	7	62%	0.02	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Trevor Booker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.02	0.01	5	60%	0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
John Wall	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.02	-0.02	12	50%	0.05	3	-0.09	4	100%	0.02
JaVale McGee	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.02	-0.01	5	20%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Nick Young	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.12	-0.02	-0.03	20	38%	-0.04	3	-0.07	5	60%	-0.03
Yi Jianlian	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.08	-0.04	-0.01	9	33%	-0.07	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.9	2.3	26.5	16.7	28.2	0.1	27.2	127.9
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +10.7%

WAS -2.4%

ORL +23.3%

ORL +17.6%

ORL +0.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	WAS	NBA	ORL	WAS	NBA
this game	14.3	15.5	15.5	113.4	95.8	105.7
season	15.2	15.1		106.3	100.9
opponent	15.2	16.2		108.7	101.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	12.5	14.0	14.5	16.7	14.3
WAS	15.2	12.7	19.8	15.3	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Hedo Turkoglu	65	64	0.62	-0.12	0.74	-0.11	25	-7	32	13.3	16.3	-3.02	16.2	14.3	1.88
Dwight Howard	63	65	0.60	-0.10	0.70	-0.19	27	-9	36	13.7	15.5	-1.82	16.4	13.6	2.79
Jameer Nelson	63	64	0.48	0.02	0.46	-0.28	26	-8	34	14.0	14.8	-0.78	16.0	14.7	1.31
Ryan Anderson	60	60	0.34	0.16	0.17	-0.07	14	4	10	14.1	14.6	-0.49	16.2	14.4	1.87
Jason Richardson	76	76	0.25	0.25	0.00	-0.01	9	9	0	14.7	13.0	1.74	15.1	17.1	-2.04
Earl Clark	37	36	0.16	0.34	-0.17	0.05	4	14	-10	14.6	14.1	0.49	14.4	16.2	-1.87
Gilbert Arenas	49	48	0.13	0.37	-0.23	0.08	2	16	-14	15.0	13.6	1.37	15.3	15.7	-0.44
JJ Redick	38	36	0.01	0.49	-0.47	0.25	-8	26	-34	14.8	14.0	0.86	14.8	15.9	-1.12
Malik Allen	34	31	-0.10	0.60	-0.70	0.17	-9	27	-36	15.5	13.7	1.82	13.6	16.4	-2.79

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Al Thornton	15	15	0.17	-0.67	0.83	0.02	5	-23	28	13.9	15.8	-1.97	14.1	14.4	-0.30
Cartier Martin	3	4	0.06	-0.56	0.62	0.03	1	-19	20	12.0	15.6	-3.65	12.5	14.4	-1.90
Kevin Seraphin	2	3	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.03	1	-19	20	11.0	15.6	-4.63	16.7	14.2	2.42
Kirk Hinrich	52	53	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	0.00	-1	-17	16	15.0	16.2	-1.16	14.3	14.3	0.00
Yi Jianlian	37	37	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	-0.17	2	-20	22	15.8	15.4	0.41	13.4	14.9	-1.57
Hilton Armstrong	9	8	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	0.05	-6	-12	6	18.8	15.2	3.58	11.2	14.6	-3.35
Trevor Booker	46	49	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	-0.03	-4	-14	10	14.6	16.4	-1.73	14.6	14.0	0.59
JaVale McGee	34	35	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	0.03	-7	-11	4	14.3	16.2	-1.87	14.9	14.0	0.84
Andray Blatche	64	62	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	0.21	-22	4	-26	16.4	13.9	2.48	14.6	13.7	0.90
John Wall	75	74	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	0.01	-17	-1	-16	15.7	15.0	0.68	14.9	12.5	2.36
Nick Young	73	74	-0.57	0.07	-0.65	0.01	-20	2	-22	15.9	14.4	1.44	14.1	15.0	-0.83
Rashard Lewis	70	71	-0.63	0.13	-0.77	0.01	-22	4	-26	15.9	14.5	1.41	14.1	14.9	-0.82

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.44,0.44,0.43,0.39,0.32,0.28,0.26,0.32,0.34,0.4,0.44,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.52,0.6,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.44,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.45,0.55,0.38,0.24,0.26,0.15,0.13,0.07,0.09,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.07,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 106, CLE 97	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.43,0.38,0.35,0.35,0.3,0.29,0.33,0.31,0.29,0.34,0.34,0.42,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.53,0.51,0.46,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.42,0.42,0.51,0.48,0.42,0.42,0.41,0.31,0.33,0.19,0.18,0.19,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0,0	94.3%
PHI 87, ORL 82	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.37,0.33,0.28,0.29,0.32,0.35,0.34,0.36,0.38,0.44,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.59,0.61,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.45,0.55,0.58,0.48,0.41,0.31,0.21,0.22,0.21,0.22,0.15,0.15,0.11,0.12,0.11,0.06,0.09,0.04,0.1,0.02,0.01,0	94.2%
ORL 106, DEN 88	0.5,0.49,0.44,0.46,0.47,0.42,0.44,0.41,0.39,0.35,0.38,0.38,0.36,0.43,0.44,0.49,0.45,0.51,0.47,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.42,0.46,0.5,0.55,0.63,0.61,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.48,0.38,0.31,0.29,0.21,0.15,0.15,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	94.1%