NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	89		Excitement	9.1 [103]		MVP	Antonio McDyess (SAS): +86.0%
Los Angeles Lakers	88		Comeback	18.8 [75]		LVP	Manu Ginobili (SAS): -29.5%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Antonio McDyess	0.86	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.86	-0.05	0.90	-0.01	10	36%	0.89	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.02
Richard Jefferson	0.10	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.1	0.10	0.02	0.02	12	75%	0.16	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Gary Neal	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.03	0.06	-0.00	5	60%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.15,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.03	0.07	-0.04	-0.00	17	57%	0.07	1	-0.04	3	100%	0.03
DeJuan Blair	0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.03	0.03	-0.01	6	50%	0.05	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Tiago Splitter	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
George Hill	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.00	-0.03	0.00	6	47%	-0.03	0	0.00	5	60%	-0.02
Tim Duncan	-0.27	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.08,-0.27	-0.10	-0.17	0.01	12	29%	-0.21	1	-0.06	4	50%	-0.03
Manu Ginobili	-0.30	0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.3	-0.09	-0.20	0.00	17	38%	-0.19	3	-0.10	3	100%	0.02

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Pau Gasol	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.29	0.29	0.10	0.20	0.01	10	79%	0.36	2	-0.07	4	75%	0.05
Lamar Odom	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.22,0.22	0.22	0.06	0.15	0.00	11	59%	0.24	1	-0.02	5	100%	0.04
Andrew Bynum	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	7	62%	0.08	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.02
Metta World Peace	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.02	-0.01	11	50%	0.04	2	-0.03	4	25%	-0.05
Shannon Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,-0.02,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	10	33%	-0.04	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Derek Fisher	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	5	20%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steve Blake	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	8	31%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kobe Bryant	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.13,-0.11,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.13,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.18,-0.18,-0.23,-0.23	-0.23	-0.11	-0.12	0.00	18	38%	-0.15	3	-0.08	6	100%	0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.8	2.8	32.8	18.7	27.7	3.0	34.6	143.3
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +60.0%

LAL -19.7%

SAS +7.7%

LAL -6.6%

SAS +8.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	LAL	NBA	SAS	LAL	NBA
this game	16.0	15.5	15.5	96.7	96.7	105.7
season	15.5	15.9		109.3	108.8
opponent	15.5	15.2		103.1	103.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	15.5	15.9	14.0	19.1	16.0
LAL	14.5	15.4	16.0	16.1	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Manu Ginobili	69	71	0.70	-0.20	0.90	0.41	10	-9	19	16.0	16.0	-0.06	15.9	14.0	1.89
Richard Jefferson	68	67	0.63	-0.13	0.77	0.55	3	-2	5	16.8	13.7	3.10	15.5	15.3	0.25
Antonio McDyess	56	59	0.49	0.01	0.47	0.28	7	-6	13	15.6	16.6	-1.05	14.6	17.2	-2.60
Tim Duncan	62	61	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.34	2	-1	3	16.4	15.2	1.14	15.7	15.0	0.66
Tony Parker	69	66	0.32	0.18	0.15	0.38	-2	3	-5	16.1	15.6	0.58	15.5	15.5	-0.07
DeJuan Blair	47	46	0.04	0.46	-0.41	0.22	-6	7	-13	14.8	17.3	-2.48	15.8	15.1	0.76
Tiago Splitter	9	8	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.01	-1	2	-3	18.6	15.7	2.83	15.6	15.5	0.17
Gary Neal	29	29	-0.03	0.53	-0.55	0.09	-4	5	-9	15.7	16.1	-0.45	15.6	15.4	0.22
George Hill	51	48	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	0.08	-4	5	-9	15.6	16.5	-0.92	15.2	15.8	-0.65

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shannon Brown	33	33	0.07	-0.57	0.64	-0.19	9	-10	19	15.3	15.6	-0.31	15.5	16.3	-0.80
Lamar Odom	60	60	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.44	7	-8	15	15.0	16.4	-1.39	16.4	15.3	1.10
Steve Blake	50	50	-0.28	-0.23	-0.05	-0.51	8	-9	17	15.9	15.0	0.95	16.3	15.7	0.61
Andrew Bynum	56	55	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.15	-6	5	-11	16.0	14.7	1.28	15.6	16.6	-0.99
Derek Fisher	47	48	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	0.05	-14	13	-27	15.4	15.5	-0.10	15.1	17.0	-1.96
Pau Gasol	66	69	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.34	-3	2	-5	15.5	15.4	0.04	16.0	16.0	-0.06
Kobe Bryant	66	69	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.34	-3	2	-5	15.5	15.4	0.04	16.0	16.0	-0.06
Metta World Peace	77	76	-0.50	0.00	-0.51	-0.42	-3	2	-5	15.3	16.4	-1.13	16.6	12.9	3.71

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.47,0.46,0.47,0.45,0.42,0.38,0.42,0.47,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.44,0.42,0.47,0.47,0.59,0.61,0.67,0.61,0.5,0.46,0.4,0.39,0.4,0.39,0.38,0.45,0.41,0.24,0.33,0.28,0.38,0.52,0.38,0.28,0.15,0.14,0.29,0.27,0.25,0.16,0.23,0.26,0
Game		Similarity Score
NJN 91, PHI 86	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.43,0.44,0.44,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.38,0.38,0.4,0.47,0.51,0.58,0.56,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.52,0.58,0.7,0.67,0.51,0.48,0.43,0.34,0.24,0.27,0.35,0.25,0.38,0.3,0.3,0.4,0.34,0.38,0.47,0.33,0.32,0.26,0.29,0.28,0.19,0.07,0.23,0.09,0	92.0%
ATL 110, IND 104	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.59,0.59,0.63,0.53,0.47,0.44,0.48,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.51,0.46,0.42,0.4,0.42,0.36,0.45,0.39,0.48,0.45,0.31,0.27,0.33,0.4,0.42,0.38,0.29,0.33,0.27,0.26,0.29,0.27,0.19,0.15,0.22,0.42,0	91.6%
SAS 92, DEN 83	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.5,0.47,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.55,0.54,0.48,0.44,0.4,0.46,0.49,0.44,0.51,0.54,0.64,0.61,0.54,0.59,0.5,0.45,0.43,0.39,0.48,0.36,0.35,0.32,0.31,0.34,0.44,0.36,0.38,0.34,0.34,0.33,0.27,0.26,0.29,0.09,0.07,0.11,0.09,0,0	91.5%