NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	97		Excitement	7.7 [304]		MVP	Marc Gasol (MEM): +19.6%
Memphis Grizzlies	100		Comeback	2.9 [324]		LVP	Ryan Anderson (ORL): -25.5%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brandon Bass	0.09	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.10	0.00	0.01	7	87%	0.13	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Chris Duhon	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Richardson	-0.00	0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0	0.07	-0.05	0.03	14	56%	-0.00	0	0.00	4	100%	0.03
Hedo Turkoglu	-0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,0.08,0.17,0.17,-0.01	0.01	-0.05	-0.02	11	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.06
Quentin Richardson	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	3	0%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jameer Nelson	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	8	47%	0.01	3	-0.07	1	100%	0.00
Dwight Howard	-0.07	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,-0.07,-0.07	0.01	-0.07	-0.00	14	69%	0.22	7	-0.29	8	62%	-0.03
Gilbert Arenas	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.06,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09	-0.02	-0.07	0.00	9	48%	-0.05	2	-0.04	3	33%	-0.11
Ryan Anderson	-0.26	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.06,-0.26	-0.04	-0.22	-0.00	10	45%	-0.04	2	-0.21	2	50%	-0.01

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Marc Gasol	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.11	0.10	0.01	11	76%	0.24	2	-0.04	3	33%	-0.02
Darrell Arthur	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.1,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.07	0.02	-0.01	8	70%	0.12	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Mike Conley	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.32,0.24,0.18,0.05	0.05	0.15	-0.08	0.01	14	79%	0.18	3	-0.13	5	80%	-0.00
Hasheem Thabeet	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Xavier Henry	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rudy Gay	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.08	0.05	-0.01	15	38%	0.02	2	-0.04	4	75%	-0.00
Tony Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.01	5	50%	-0.00	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Greivis Vasquez	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	2	40%	-0.01	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.01
Sam Young	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	9	56%	0.02	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Zach Randolph	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14	-0.14	-0.07	-0.07	0.00	11	38%	-0.07	2	-0.07	4	50%	-0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.2	2.6	26.2	16.5	32.2	1.7	36.1	139.6
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MEM +41.0%

ORL -13.4%

ORL -13.1%

MEM +27.1%

MEM +8.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	MEM	NBA	ORL	MEM	NBA
this game	15.8	16.0	15.5	106.6	111.1	105.7
season	15.2	15.5		106.3	106.1
opponent	15.5	16.2		103.7	101.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	15.3	15.7	17.6	14.8	15.8
MEM	16.7	12.6	16.7	18.8	16.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Duhon	13	13	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	0.07	-7	4	-11	15.6	15.9	-0.26	13.8	16.4	-2.59
Brandon Bass	46	47	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	-0.11	-2	-1	-1	16.5	15.2	1.26	16.0	16.0	0.07
Hedo Turkoglu	65	65	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	-0.48	10	-13	23	15.8	15.9	-0.07	16.7	14.1	2.59
Quentin Richardson	20	18	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	0.05	-10	7	-17	16.1	15.8	0.34	14.8	16.3	-1.44
Jameer Nelson	56	56	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	-0.14	-5	2	-7	16.3	15.1	1.22	15.4	16.9	-1.44
Jason Richardson	75	75	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	-0.46	6	-9	15	15.8	16.1	-0.35	16.4	14.1	2.23
Ryan Anderson	51	48	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	-0.29	0	-3	3	15.6	16.2	-0.61	16.1	15.9	0.16
Gilbert Arenas	44	43	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.28	-3	0	-3	15.3	16.3	-1.00	16.1	15.9	0.24
Dwight Howard	85	85	-0.53	0.03	-0.57	-0.42	-4	1	-5	15.7	18.3	-2.67	15.9	17.0	-1.07

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rudy Gay	79	79	0.52	-0.02	0.55	0.35	6	-3	9	15.9	16.3	-0.32	15.4	18.7	-3.26
Sam Young	53	52	0.50	-0.00	0.50	0.47	1	2	-1	17.7	13.5	4.25	16.2	15.4	0.74
Marc Gasol	59	60	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.47	1	2	-1	16.0	16.0	-0.02	16.1	15.2	0.92
Mike Conley	67	69	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.27	-2	5	-7	16.7	13.9	2.79	15.9	15.5	0.44
Hasheem Thabeet	25	24	0.17	0.33	-0.15	-0.03	7	-4	11	14.2	16.7	-2.48	15.9	15.8	0.11
Tony Allen	33	35	0.17	0.34	-0.17	0.11	2	1	1	14.1	17.1	-2.95	15.3	16.1	-0.80
Greivis Vasquez	33	33	0.15	0.35	-0.19	0.01	5	-2	7	13.7	17.3	-3.57	15.8	15.9	-0.12
Darrell Arthur	36	38	0.15	0.35	-0.20	-0.05	7	-4	11	15.7	16.2	-0.54	15.4	16.2	-0.80
Zach Randolph	60	59	0.11	0.39	-0.27	0.41	-10	13	-23	16.9	14.1	2.83	16.0	15.6	0.37
Xavier Henry	5	6	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.07	-2	5	-7	15.8	16.0	-0.20	19.0	15.6	3.39

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.38,0.39,0.34,0.31,0.33,0.29,0.3,0.28,0.3,0.35,0.45,0.47,0.4,0.44,0.51,0.47,0.42,0.36,0.36,0.44,0.46,0.42,0.46,0.51,0.55,0.64,0.67,0.74,0.75,0.79,0.89,0.91,0.92,0.92,0.93,0.93,0.89,0.77,0.7,0.85,0.78,0.86,0.79,0.68,0.84,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 93, CHI 107	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.39,0.37,0.34,0.3,0.34,0.38,0.38,0.42,0.37,0.42,0.47,0.45,0.44,0.44,0.48,0.39,0.29,0.28,0.31,0.42,0.42,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.6,0.67,0.77,0.83,0.78,0.79,0.86,0.87,0.92,0.87,0.79,0.73,0.81,0.79,0.8,0.83,0.86,0.96,0.99,1,1	91.9%
IND 95, CLE 98	0.5,0.49,0.53,0.54,0.48,0.48,0.4,0.43,0.39,0.43,0.33,0.32,0.38,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.44,0.41,0.42,0.34,0.34,0.31,0.27,0.3,0.42,0.46,0.42,0.48,0.61,0.74,0.78,0.76,0.85,0.9,0.87,0.81,0.87,0.88,0.8,0.84,0.87,0.81,0.78,0.89,0.89,0.77,0.85,1	91.8%
ORL 84, NYK 88	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.47,0.41,0.39,0.34,0.34,0.4,0.39,0.4,0.4,0.5,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.4,0.35,0.39,0.46,0.49,0.56,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.64,0.7,0.74,0.77,0.74,0.76,0.77,0.84,0.82,0.87,0.91,0.85,0.86,0.77,0.83,0.76,0.83,0.9,0.79,0.84,0.84,1	91.6%