NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	84		Excitement	6.9 [406]		MVP	Allan Houston (NYK): +11.3%
New York Knicks	88		Comeback	2.1 [655]		LVP	Gerald Wilkins (ORL): -20.6%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rony Seikaly	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	13	67%	0.07	4	-0.09	16	62%	-0.03
Brian Evans	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	8	50%	-0.02	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.01
Bo Outlaw	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	2	50%	-0.02	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.02
Horace Grant	-0.05	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	12	40%	-0.05	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.02
Dan Schayes	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	0.00	-0.01	4	25%	-0.05	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Darrell Armstrong	-0.07	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.00	-0.03	0.04	8	60%	-0.01	2	-0.06	4	100%	0.05
Derek Harper	-0.16	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.16	-0.05	-0.10	0.01	13	46%	-0.02	3	-0.14	0	0%	0.00
Gerald Wilkins	-0.21	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.2,-0.21	-0.12	-0.10	-0.01	5	29%	-0.05	3	-0.15	4	100%	0.04

New York Knicks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Allan Houston	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.11	0.11	-0.05	0.15	-0.01	12	56%	0.22	4	-0.11	3	100%	0.02
Chris Mills	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.11	0.01	0.01	13	71%	0.13	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Buck Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.01	-0.00	7	60%	0.09	1	-0.07	1	100%	0.01
Larry Johnson	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.15,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.08	0.07	0.00	10	42%	0.04	2	-0.05	4	50%	-0.02
Chris Dudley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
John Starks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	6	62%	0.03	2	-0.06	4	50%	-0.03
Chris Childs	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	1	100%	0.06	3	-0.10	6	100%	0.04
Charles Oakley	0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.00	10	46%	-0.02	3	-0.06	4	75%	-0.02
Charlie Ward	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.08	-0.07	0.02	8	28%	-0.13	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.2	2.5	30.2	15.8	24.3	2.5	44.6	144.0
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

NYK +57.6%

ORL -12.8%

NYK +0.4%

NYK +6.2%

ORL -1.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	NYK	NBA	ORL	NYK	NBA
this game	19.7	14.8	15.6	101.2	104.8	102.5
season	16.7	15.7		100.3	100.4
opponent	16.3	15.6		98.6	101.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	17.3	21.4	21.6	18.8	19.7
NYK	15.4	14.6	13.7	15.5	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dan Schayes	16	18	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.04	1	-5	6	21.6	19.3	2.36	15.7	14.6	1.11
Bo Outlaw	41	41	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.11	1	-5	6	20.6	18.9	1.70	16.6	13.0	3.59
Brian Evans	47	46	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	-0.30	4	-8	12	19.9	19.4	0.49	14.5	15.2	-0.75
Derek Harper	68	68	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.41	7	-11	18	19.7	19.7	0.07	15.1	13.4	1.68
Gerald Wilkins	40	43	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	-0.19	-9	5	-14	19.5	19.9	-0.38	13.1	16.5	-3.40
Horace Grant	66	65	-0.50	-0.00	-0.49	-0.35	-5	1	-6	19.4	21.0	-1.61	14.1	17.3	-3.19
Darrell Armstrong	66	66	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.28	-8	4	-12	19.0	22.7	-3.75	15.1	13.7	1.44
Rony Seikaly	71	73	-0.56	0.06	-0.63	-0.24	-11	7	-18	19.8	19.4	0.36	14.8	14.7	0.08

New York Knicks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Charles Oakley	65	64	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.34	6	-2	8	14.2	16.8	-2.64	19.1	21.8	-2.75
John Starks	56	53	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.21	9	-5	14	14.2	15.9	-1.70	19.4	20.4	-1.01
Allan Houston	49	51	0.46	0.04	0.43	0.26	7	-3	10	16.0	13.1	2.84	20.5	18.5	2.04
Charlie Ward	51	51	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.31	1	3	-2	13.8	16.3	-2.43	18.7	21.3	-2.64
Chris Mills	54	52	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.09	7	-3	10	14.4	15.4	-0.99	20.9	17.7	3.16
Chris Childs	35	35	0.19	0.31	-0.11	0.02	6	-2	8	15.3	14.4	0.93	19.9	19.6	0.28
Chris Dudley	29	27	0.16	0.34	-0.17	0.14	1	3	-2	14.8	14.8	0.05	20.4	19.4	1.01
Buck Williams	40	39	0.04	0.46	-0.41	0.22	-6	10	-16	15.6	14.1	1.48	20.4	19.2	1.20
Larry Johnson	41	43	0.01	0.49	-0.47	0.34	-11	15	-26	15.5	14.1	1.40	18.8	20.7	-1.89

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.47,0.41,0.39,0.34,0.34,0.4,0.39,0.4,0.4,0.5,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.4,0.35,0.39,0.46,0.49,0.56,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.64,0.7,0.74,0.77,0.74,0.76,0.77,0.84,0.82,0.87,0.91,0.85,0.86,0.77,0.83,0.76,0.83,0.9,0.79,0.84,0.84,1
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 114, GSW 116	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.48,0.44,0.45,0.4,0.36,0.35,0.38,0.38,0.46,0.48,0.41,0.44,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.37,0.39,0.51,0.64,0.56,0.56,0.51,0.52,0.58,0.61,0.73,0.64,0.74,0.72,0.79,0.73,0.84,0.91,0.81,0.84,0.82,0.87,0.77,0.79,0.85,0.87,0.87,0.89,0.86,0.73,1	94.9%
BKN 97, PHI 106	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.46,0.42,0.39,0.41,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.42,0.4,0.49,0.45,0.38,0.4,0.46,0.48,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.61,0.7,0.63,0.6,0.64,0.73,0.76,0.74,0.71,0.79,0.8,0.88,0.91,0.78,0.87,0.85,0.8,0.77,0.82,0.76,0.87,0.96,0.93,1,0.98,1	93.7%
DET 84, MIA 87	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.46,0.45,0.39,0.39,0.36,0.35,0.35,0.45,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.44,0.46,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.54,0.63,0.6,0.7,0.73,0.7,0.74,0.75,0.72,0.77,0.74,0.75,0.81,0.82,0.78,0.87,0.81,0.69,0.84,0.73,0.86,0.79,0.67,0.74,1	93.6%