NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	82		Excitement	8.5 [174]		MVP	Greg Monroe (DET): +22.9%
Boston Celtics	86		Comeback	8.0 [396]		LVP	Tracy McGrady (DET): -30.1%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Greg Monroe	0.23	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.14,0.23,0.23,0.23	0.10	0.13	0.00	5	87%	0.24	1	-0.01	5	60%	-0.01
Chris Wilcox	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.03	0.04	0.01	6	56%	0.06	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.03
Ben Gordon	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02	-0.01	0.03	0.00	10	48%	0.04	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Austin Daye	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	4	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Charlie Villanueva	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0	0.01	-0.02	-0.01	10	50%	0.07	1	-0.07	2	50%	-0.02
Tayshaun Prince	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.06	-0.05	14	43%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Will Bynum	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	2	33%	0.00	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.02
Rodney Stuckey	-0.24	0,0,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.24	-0.10	-0.14	0.01	14	47%	-0.07	5	-0.17	4	100%	0.02
Tracy McGrady	-0.30	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.3,-0.3	-0.13	-0.17	-0.00	9	25%	-0.24	3	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Paul Pierce	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.07	0.06	0.03	15	65%	0.21	3	-0.11	4	75%	0.00
Von Wafer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.06	0.00	0.00	2	86%	0.06	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.02
Shaquille O'Neal	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.17,0.11,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.00	-0.00	9	52%	0.04	0	0.00	5	40%	-0.12
Glen Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.02	0.01	6	61%	0.08	2	-0.05	6	50%	-0.03
Semih Erden	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.01	0.00	4	75%	0.09	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Ray Allen	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,0.01	0.01	-0.09	0.06	-0.04	8	33%	0.06	2	-0.05	5	60%	-0.05
Marquis Daniels	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	4	25%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Nate Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.00	-0.00	5	30%	-0.00	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Rajon Rondo	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.20	-0.09	-0.10	0.02	9	33%	-0.11	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Garnett	0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.05,0,-0.12,-0.26	-0.26	-0.09	-0.18	-0.00	14	37%	-0.11	2	-0.15	2	50%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.8	2.6	26.5	16.7	30.6	2.5	37.4	141.9
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +32.6%

DET -11.8%

BOS +52.3%

DET -18.6%

DET -4.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	BOS	NBA	DET	BOS	NBA
this game	16.8	15.7	15.5	92.1	97.7	105.7
season	16.7	15.7		106.4	104.8
opponent	15.8	15.2		99.6	110.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	20.3	14.9	15.2	17.8	16.8
BOS	16.8	15.7	15.5	15.0	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Wilcox	59	56	0.16	-0.66	0.82	0.07	3	-7	10	16.6	17.2	-0.61	16.4	14.5	1.94
Will Bynum	19	20	0.08	-0.58	0.65	0.16	-3	-1	-2	17.1	16.8	0.28	15.0	15.9	-0.85
Austin Daye	17	18	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	0.09	-5	1	-6	16.5	16.9	-0.37	15.1	15.9	-0.75
Ben Gordon	37	37	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	0.10	-8	4	-12	18.1	15.9	2.19	15.4	15.9	-0.52
Tayshaun Prince	72	70	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.47	1	-5	6	16.9	16.5	0.37	15.9	15.1	0.75
Greg Monroe	62	63	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.28	-7	3	-10	17.5	15.2	2.31	16.0	15.0	1.04
Rodney Stuckey	54	53	-0.51	0.01	-0.53	-0.54	1	-5	6	16.1	18.0	-1.88	15.5	16.0	-0.44
Tracy McGrady	69	67	-0.51	0.01	-0.53	-0.54	1	-5	6	16.6	17.8	-1.25	16.0	14.8	1.18
Charlie Villanueva	56	56	-0.58	0.08	-0.67	-0.50	-3	-1	-2	16.4	17.5	-1.13	14.9	17.1	-2.13

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Paul Pierce	67	68	0.71	-0.21	0.91	0.50	7	-3	10	15.4	16.6	-1.20	16.7	17.1	-0.35
Glen Davis	45	47	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.52	1	3	-2	15.5	15.9	-0.40	15.5	18.3	-2.75
Kevin Garnett	54	55	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.53	0	4	-4	15.8	15.6	0.19	16.6	17.2	-0.65
Rajon Rondo	73	73	0.46	0.04	0.43	0.41	2	2	0	16.1	14.0	2.05	17.2	15.4	1.78
Ray Allen	67	68	0.41	0.09	0.33	0.41	0	4	-4	16.0	14.7	1.30	16.7	17.2	-0.47
Von Wafer	22	24	0.09	0.41	-0.31	-0.05	5	-1	6	14.6	16.1	-1.48	16.0	17.1	-1.14
Semih Erden	31	30	0.08	0.42	-0.33	-0.18	9	-5	14	15.3	15.9	-0.59	17.6	16.4	1.21
Marquis Daniels	11	10	0.03	0.47	-0.45	-0.00	1	3	-2	15.6	15.7	-0.08	19.4	16.5	2.89
Shaquille O'Neal	46	46	-0.16	0.66	-0.83	-0.11	-2	6	-8	16.1	15.3	0.76	17.9	15.7	2.28
Nate Robinson	24	24	-0.20	0.70	-0.91	-0.12	-3	7	-10	15.6	15.7	-0.11	16.2	17.1	-0.91

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.61,0.57,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.6,0.58,0.65,0.53,0.52,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.41,0.34,0.31,0.3,0.36,0.26,0.28,0.25,0.31,0.33,0.4,0.38,0.43,0.43,0.38,0.23,0.14,0.24,0.46,0.31,0.28,0.25,0.53,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 81, UTA 84	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.53,0.51,0.5,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.6,0.53,0.53,0.57,0.51,0.47,0.48,0.44,0.36,0.36,0.39,0.49,0.5,0.45,0.45,0.31,0.27,0.3,0.21,0.2,0.22,0.17,0.26,0.25,0.26,0.22,0.21,0.17,0.19,0.18,0.24,0.39,0.25,0.28,0.33,0.58,1	91.4%
DAL 95, NJN 98	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.5,0.53,0.61,0.62,0.66,0.6,0.55,0.49,0.44,0.4,0.42,0.47,0.45,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.34,0.34,0.42,0.39,0.41,0.49,0.42,0.37,0.42,0.33,0.39,0.38,0.38,0.35,0.34,0.33,0.44,0.46,0.43,0.48,0.42,0.27,0.36,0.19,0.33,0.19,0.16,0.43,0.42,1	91.4%
CHA 99, CLE 100	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.44,0.42,0.48,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.61,0.59,0.54,0.56,0.49,0.44,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.46,0.39,0.36,0.33,0.29,0.35,0.38,0.48,0.3,0.36,0.54,0.57,0.62,0.57,0.37,0.45,0.34,0.46,0.32,0.15,0.33,0.42,1	90.9%