NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	96		Excitement	8.5 [169]		MVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): +47.9%
Chicago Bulls	99		Comeback	2.8 [429]		LVP	Mario Chalmers (MIA): -16.4%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwyane Wade	0.48	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,0.15,0.48	0.12	0.38	0.02	20	62%	0.57	3	-0.09	13	69%	-0.08
Eddie House	0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.13	0.05	0.00	7	93%	0.17	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Jones	0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.01	-0.01	6	50%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Chris Bosh	0.02	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.1,-0.04,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.04	0.00	18	44%	0.05	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.00
Mike Miller	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.01	6	67%	0.05	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joel Anthony	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Juwan Howard	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	3	50%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Carlos Arroyo	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	3	33%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mario Chalmers	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.05,-0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.16	-0.07	-0.11	-0.01	12	42%	-0.09	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kyle Korver	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.4	0.40	0.03	0.37	-0.00	6	58%	0.40	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Derrick Rose	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.1,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.17,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.22,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.15,0.22,0.22,0.42,0.19	0.19	0.10	0.09	-0.01	27	55%	0.30	2	-0.11	8	100%	0.08
CJ Watson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.03	0.05	-0.02	5	60%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kurt Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.06	0.05	0.00	4	100%	0.13	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Keith Bogans	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.06	0.01	0.01	3	100%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Omer Asik	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.04	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Ronnie Brewer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.01	7	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Taj Gibson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	0.01	-0.00	3	25%	-0.00	1	-0.04	2	0%	-0.03
Luol Deng	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.09	-0.01	-0.00	14	40%	-0.00	3	-0.10	2	100%	0.01
Carlos Boozer	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.15	-0.15	-0.05	-0.09	0.01	14	43%	-0.10	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.7	2.4	30.4	16.4	30.4	2.5	38.3	145.2
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +1.4%

CHI +13.5%

CHI +38.4%

MIA -0.4%

MIA -3.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	CHI	NBA	MIA	CHI	NBA
this game	15.4	16.7	15.5	107.9	110.0	105.7
season	16.0	15.7		109.0	106.5
opponent	15.9	15.6		99.2	102.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	14.6	12.9	18.7	16.0	15.4
CHI	14.8	19.0	16.5	16.8	16.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mike Miller	47	49	0.21	-0.71	0.92	-0.26	16	-19	35	14.7	16.2	-1.45	16.5	17.0	-0.56
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	16	16	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	0.03	-2	-1	-1	13.7	15.8	-2.04	15.9	16.9	-1.06
Eddie House	44	45	-0.05	-0.45	0.41	-0.46	14	-17	31	14.4	16.4	-1.97	17.9	15.6	2.29
Chris Bosh	56	57	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.09	-3	0	-3	15.6	15.2	0.39	17.3	15.8	1.51
Juwan Howard	30	29	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.18	-4	1	-5	16.3	15.0	1.27	17.1	16.6	0.48
Joel Anthony	69	70	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.35	1	-4	5	15.9	13.7	2.23	17.0	15.8	1.15
Carlos Arroyo	23	22	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	0.10	-16	13	-29	15.1	15.5	-0.46	16.4	16.9	-0.44
James Jones	40	40	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	-0.03	-12	9	-21	16.1	14.8	1.31	15.9	17.4	-1.48
Mario Chalmers	52	53	-0.53	0.03	-0.55	-0.38	-5	2	-7	16.6	13.8	2.77	16.6	17.0	-0.43
Dwyane Wade	68	69	-0.54	0.04	-0.59	-0.43	-4	1	-5	14.7	17.6	-2.87	16.2	18.4	-2.13

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kurt Thomas	42	45	0.80	-0.30	1.10	0.24	19	-16	35	17.0	16.5	0.57	16.0	14.9	1.11
Ronnie Brewer	40	39	0.54	-0.04	0.57	0.30	8	-5	13	16.3	17.1	-0.76	15.9	15.1	0.79
Luol Deng	75	72	0.44	0.06	0.37	0.38	2	1	1	16.4	18.4	-1.99	15.3	16.0	-0.71
Derrick Rose	80	80	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.38	-1	4	-5	16.2	20.8	-4.56	15.5	15.0	0.48
CJ Watson	26	25	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.23	3	0	3	17.3	16.5	0.85	14.9	15.6	-0.76
Keith Bogans	32	31	0.22	0.28	-0.06	-0.01	8	-5	13	16.2	17.0	-0.77	16.2	15.0	1.23
Carlos Boozer	65	67	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.16	0	3	-3	17.7	14.3	3.41	15.0	16.6	-1.61
Omer Asik	33	31	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	0.11	-4	7	-11	16.2	17.1	-0.84	16.1	15.1	1.08
Taj Gibson	32	29	-0.09	0.59	-0.69	0.11	-7	10	-17	16.4	16.9	-0.57	15.7	15.3	0.44
Kyle Korver	25	26	-0.22	0.72	-0.94	0.16	-13	16	-29	18.2	16.2	2.07	13.5	16.2	-2.78

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.53,0.49,0.55,0.53,0.6,0.6,0.68,0.68,0.74,0.72,0.67,0.75,0.8,0.7,0.66,0.66,0.69,0.56,0.54,0.37,0.48,0.57,0.67,0.76,0.84,0.74,0.65,0.59,0.52,0.62,0.64,0.62,0.7,0.66,0.67,0.7,0.69,0.71,0.67,0.74,0.89,0.85,0.84,1
Game		Similarity Score
ATL 86, BKN 91	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.5,0.55,0.55,0.53,0.57,0.6,0.55,0.62,0.65,0.64,0.62,0.64,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.64,0.59,0.61,0.51,0.44,0.33,0.35,0.4,0.52,0.64,0.73,0.59,0.59,0.56,0.66,0.63,0.68,0.7,0.74,0.66,0.8,0.81,0.69,0.71,0.73,0.75,0.85,0.95,0.85,1	92.0%
MIA 89, UTA 94	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.66,0.67,0.65,0.71,0.76,0.74,0.68,0.71,0.75,0.75,0.76,0.68,0.66,0.74,0.66,0.61,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.58,0.64,0.67,0.62,0.68,0.69,0.63,0.63,0.64,0.58,0.66,0.79,0.8,0.81,0.79,0.76,0.83,0.86,0.96,0.89,0.97,1	92.0%
ATL 89, NYK 92	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.58,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.55,0.6,0.69,0.77,0.81,0.73,0.71,0.71,0.71,0.7,0.68,0.59,0.64,0.59,0.56,0.63,0.57,0.63,0.67,0.7,0.79,0.77,0.65,0.65,0.66,0.52,0.56,0.62,0.7,0.7,0.67,0.81,0.79,0.85,0.73,0.8,0.78,0.67,0.58,1	91.8%