NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

New Orleans Hornets	110		Excitement	9.5 [73]		MVP	Emeka Okafor (NOH): +29.0%
Houston Rockets	105		Comeback	23.0 [54]		LVP	Luis Scola (HOU): -14.6%

New Orleans Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Emeka Okafor	0.29	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.16,0.16,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29	0.14	0.19	0.04	8	89%	0.32	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.08
Jarrett Jack	0.22	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.22	0.15	0.07	0.00	14	70%	0.24	1	-0.02	5	100%	0.05
Trevor Ariza	0.16	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.16	0.00	0.15	-0.01	14	42%	0.16	0	0.00	5	60%	-0.02
Chris Paul	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.13,0.06	-0.10	0.17	0.02	11	46%	0.20	5	-0.15	2	100%	0.01
Willie Green	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.01	1	100%	0.07	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
David West	0.03	0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.1,-0.06,-0.15,0.17,0.09,0.14,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.04	0.06	-0.01	20	56%	0.37	7	-0.34	12	92%	0.13
Aaron Gray	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.00	3	67%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Smith	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.01	7	43%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Quincy Pondexter	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Thornton	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kyle Lowry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.23,0.17,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.1,0.19	0.19	0.10	0.08	-0.01	20	61%	0.23	2	-0.04	6	100%	0.11
Kevin Martin	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.1,0.1,0.3,0.3,0.25,0.25,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.09	0.08	0.02	17	65%	0.29	3	-0.14	6	83%	0.01
Shane Battier	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.16,0.16,0.13	0.13	0.02	0.11	0.00	11	59%	0.20	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Brooks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.05	0.01	0.00	6	64%	0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jordan Hill	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	0	100%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Charles Hayes	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.02	0.01	6	53%	0.04	1	-0.02	5	60%	-0.03
Jared Jeffries	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chase Budinger	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Courtney Lee	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.02	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Patrick Patterson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.08	-0.01	-0.02	6	17%	-0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Luis Scola	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,-0.15	-0.15	-0.07	-0.09	-0.01	12	41%	-0.09	2	-0.05	10	60%	-0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	22.1	2.5	29.0	14.8	29.0	2.6	35.2	1.8	16.8	153.8
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	1.9	16.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

NOH +36.0%

NOH +34.4%

NOH +19.9%

HOU -36.5%

HOU -3.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	NOH	HOU	NBA	NOH	HOU	NBA
this game	16.1	14.8	15.5	107.8	101.0	105.7
season	16.2	15.2		104.6	109.5
opponent	14.9	15.9		107.5	104.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
NOH	16.8	17.1	16.2	15.8	12.2	16.1
HOU	13.2	14.2	13.2	20.1	13.8	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

New Orleans Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jarrett Jack	71	73	0.96	-0.46	1.42	0.37	20	-15	35	15.6	17.2	-1.66	14.5	15.5	-0.95
Trevor Ariza	77	77	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.40	6	-1	7	15.6	17.6	-2.08	15.9	11.7	4.26
Chris Paul	82	83	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.42	3	2	1	15.7	17.4	-1.72	15.3	12.9	2.40
Emeka Okafor	84	83	0.50	0.00	0.49	0.47	1	4	-3	16.1	15.9	0.22	15.5	12.1	3.41
Jason Smith	27	29	0.25	0.25	-0.00	-0.10	12	-7	19	17.0	15.7	1.32	15.1	14.7	0.35
David West	86	88	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.40	-9	14	-23	16.0	16.4	-0.44	14.3	17.9	-3.61
Quincy Pondexter	11	12	0.12	0.38	-0.27	-0.03	5	0	5	19.3	15.7	3.59	16.4	14.6	1.81
Aaron Gray	6	6	0.08	0.42	-0.34	-0.04	4	1	3	14.7	16.2	-1.49	16.8	14.7	2.14
Marcus Thornton	22	24	-0.06	0.56	-0.63	-0.06	0	5	-5	17.8	15.6	2.17	11.8	15.7	-3.88
Willie Green	44	45	-0.57	1.07	-1.64	-0.07	-17	22	-39	16.4	15.8	0.60	13.0	16.2	-3.13

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jordan Hill	13	11	-0.01	-0.48	0.47	0.04	-2	-3	1	15.1	14.8	0.30	18.5	15.8	2.78
Charles Hayes	78	77	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	-0.44	12	-17	29	15.1	14.1	0.94	16.8	13.9	2.90
Chase Budinger	12	11	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	0.03	-5	0	-5	16.4	14.6	1.81	19.3	15.7	3.59
Kyle Lowry	89	88	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.40	9	-14	23	14.1	19.1	-4.97	15.8	17.7	-1.91
Luis Scola	86	86	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	-0.42	8	-13	21	14.3	17.4	-3.11	15.9	17.0	-1.10
Patrick Patterson	15	13	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	0.09	-11	6	-17	18.9	14.1	4.73	17.4	15.9	1.51
Shane Battier	73	72	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	-0.38	4	-9	13	15.3	13.6	1.72	15.8	16.8	-0.99
Courtney Lee	24	21	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	0.02	-10	5	-15	14.6	14.9	-0.25	17.8	15.6	2.19
Aaron Brooks	33	33	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.00	-11	6	-17	12.8	15.7	-2.88	15.3	16.4	-1.09
Jared Jeffries	14	14	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	0.04	-15	10	-25	14.2	14.9	-0.70	13.3	16.5	-3.23
Kevin Martin	83	84	-0.48	-0.02	-0.45	-0.36	-4	-1	-3	15.4	12.5	2.93	15.5	18.8	-3.29

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.5,0.47,0.5,0.49,0.53,0.57,0.59,0.61,0.6,0.65,0.62,0.69,0.64,0.67,0.6,0.56,0.53,0.54,0.44,0.44,0.39,0.46,0.43,0.49,0.55,0.58,0.61,0.68,0.77,0.75,0.87,0.94,0.93,0.92,0.87,0.74,0.62,0.68,0.64,0.76,0.9,0.86,0.71,0.68,0.58,0.54,0.75,0.46,0.67,0.41,0
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 116, WAS 115	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.5,0.47,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.4,0.42,0.44,0.48,0.53,0.56,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.44,0.54,0.44,0.46,0.43,0.52,0.49,0.64,0.7,0.71,0.71,0.76,0.82,0.88,0.85,0.87,0.9,0.93,0.87,0.91,0.87,0.85,0.91,0.71,0.55,0.78,0.74,0.54,0.62,0.64,0.86,0.73,0	88.3%
SEA 101, CLE 99	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.56,0.53,0.61,0.63,0.63,0.6,0.63,0.62,0.66,0.66,0.71,0.68,0.62,0.63,0.61,0.64,0.69,0.61,0.61,0.56,0.54,0.66,0.6,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.62,0.65,0.62,0.64,0.6,0.75,0.7,0.7,0.75,0.71,0.74,0.64,0.65,0.6,0.76,0.84,0.91,0.72,0.54,0.75,0.78,0.68,0.58,0	87.1%
CHI 92, MIA 85	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.59,0.57,0.57,0.65,0.65,0.66,0.66,0.64,0.7,0.62,0.6,0.67,0.74,0.66,0.66,0.61,0.6,0.59,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.58,0.52,0.42,0.51,0.55,0.65,0.69,0.83,0.89,0.87,0.9,0.79,0.67,0.85,0.7,0.81,0.82,0.92,0.93,0.68,0.84,0.46,0.47,0.64,0.24,0.17,0	87.0%