NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	107		Excitement	8.3 [202]		MVP	LeBron James (MIA): +41.5%
Portland Trail Blazers	100		Comeback	40.3 [55]		LVP	Andre Miller (POR): -24.9%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LeBron James	0.41	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.07,0.12,0.28,0.21,0.21,0.37,0.4,0.42	0.19	0.27	0.05	26	71%	0.63	6	-0.22	10	70%	0.03
Dwyane Wade	0.30	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.15,0.1,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.25,0.25,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.3	0.21	0.11	0.02	22	71%	0.37	2	-0.07	4	75%	0.01
James Jones	0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.03	0.15	0.00	3	62%	0.18	0	0.00	2	100%	0.07
Chris Bosh	0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.02	-0.01	17	53%	0.09	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Juwan Howard	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	1	100%	0.02	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Joel Anthony	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	-0.06	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	2	0%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mario Chalmers	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	3	33%	0.01	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Arroyo	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.06	-0.04	0.00	5	20%	-0.08	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Patty Mills	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.14,0.14,0.18,0.18,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25	0.25	0.06	0.18	-0.01	10	59%	0.25	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
LaMarcus Aldridge	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.1,0.28,0.28,0.22,0.28,0.27,0.24	0.24	0.06	0.19	0.01	23	57%	0.31	3	-0.07	8	87%	0.02
Nicolas Batum	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.05	0.05	0.11	-0.01	0.04	16	63%	0.08	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.02
Rudy Fernandez	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.00	3	67%	0.06	1	-0.04	6	83%	0.01
Dante Cunningham	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.03	0.02	-0.00	4	22%	-0.00	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.02
Joel Przybilla	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Camby	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.09	-0.02	-0.01	5	20%	-0.05	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Wesley Matthews	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.1,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.15,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21	-0.21	-0.12	-0.10	-0.01	20	35%	-0.07	3	-0.14	0	0%	0.00
Andre Miller	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25	-0.25	-0.09	-0.17	-0.02	9	30%	-0.21	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	24.6	2.5	30.4	15.7	22.1	2.5	35.3	1.7	17.6	152.4
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	1.9	16.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +58.4%

MIA +22.1%

POR -22.6%

POR -11.8%

MIA +3.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	POR	NBA	MIA	POR	NBA
this game	14.9	17.7	15.5	109.2	103.1	105.7
season	16.0	16.5		109.0	106.7
opponent	15.7	15.6		105.6	102.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
MIA	13.2	16.4	14.5	15.1	16.9	14.9
POR	16.3	17.9	17.4	20.9	14.6	17.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dwyane Wade	78	77	0.78	-0.28	1.06	0.22	19	-12	31	15.0	14.8	0.11	17.9	16.9	0.93
Chris Bosh	80	81	0.69	-0.19	0.88	0.25	15	-8	23	14.9	15.1	-0.21	17.8	16.9	0.90
Carlos Arroyo	64	65	0.63	-0.13	0.77	0.22	14	-7	21	13.9	16.9	-2.98	17.3	18.4	-1.07
LeBron James	86	86	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.33	5	2	3	14.4	19.1	-4.72	17.5	19.0	-1.48
James Jones	36	36	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.29	-3	10	-13	15.3	14.7	0.62	17.9	17.6	0.27
Juwan Howard	16	14	-0.07	0.57	-0.63	-0.01	-2	9	-11	13.9	15.1	-1.27	17.6	17.7	-0.06
Mario Chalmers	34	32	-0.13	0.63	-0.77	0.07	-7	14	-21	16.9	13.9	2.98	18.4	17.3	1.07
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	36	36	-0.13	0.63	-0.77	-0.02	-4	11	-15	14.7	15.0	-0.30	16.0	18.7	-2.73
Joel Anthony	50	49	-0.45	0.95	-1.40	-0.19	-9	16	-25	15.8	14.1	1.68	19.2	16.2	2.98

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Joel Przybilla	16	18	0.10	-0.60	0.70	0.01	3	-10	13	18.1	17.6	0.52	15.4	14.8	0.55
Dante Cunningham	26	27	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	0.10	-4	-3	-1	17.7	17.7	0.05	13.8	15.4	-1.55
Rudy Fernandez	30	31	-0.05	-0.45	0.39	-0.05	0	-7	7	18.1	17.5	0.64	15.3	14.8	0.51
Patty Mills	42	41	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	-0.02	-5	-2	-3	19.0	16.7	2.31	15.2	14.8	0.44
Andre Miller	55	58	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	-0.28	-2	-5	3	16.7	19.0	-2.31	14.7	15.3	-0.57
Marcus Camby	69	67	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.27	-4	-3	-1	17.7	17.7	0.02	15.5	13.7	1.75
Wesley Matthews	83	83	-0.50	-0.00	-0.50	-0.23	-9	2	-11	17.9	16.6	1.31	15.4	12.3	3.08
Nicolas Batum	81	82	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.41	-5	-2	-3	17.3	19.5	-2.17	14.3	18.1	-3.73
LaMarcus Aldridge	83	83	-0.58	0.08	-0.65	-0.31	-9	2	-11	17.6	18.3	-0.70	14.8	15.7	-0.94

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.43,0.41,0.4,0.46,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.4,0.37,0.34,0.32,0.41,0.51,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.54,0.49,0.61,0.55,0.67,0.65,0.65,0.66,0.63,0.56,0.68,0.58,0.66,0.62,0.62,0.85,0.74,0.85,0.78,0.74,0.85,0.95,0.84,0.46,0.39,0.16,0.1,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
POR 108, CHA 100	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.56,0.57,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.42,0.46,0.43,0.38,0.45,0.49,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.46,0.51,0.59,0.67,0.58,0.57,0.55,0.52,0.6,0.65,0.78,0.7,0.56,0.67,0.56,0.62,0.65,0.71,0.71,0.81,0.69,0.7,0.73,0.69,0.64,0.55,0.83,0.54,0.39,0.11,0.02,0,0	90.9%
NYK 113, WAS 100	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.44,0.51,0.53,0.57,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.43,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.44,0.53,0.56,0.59,0.58,0.58,0.57,0.51,0.52,0.61,0.71,0.74,0.72,0.77,0.78,0.68,0.62,0.62,0.7,0.8,0.87,0.87,0.81,0.61,0.76,0.92,0.84,0.58,0.54,0.32,0.04,0.01,0,0	90.7%
LAL 109, SAS 100	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.55,0.61,0.49,0.6,0.58,0.54,0.4,0.36,0.31,0.31,0.27,0.35,0.34,0.34,0.41,0.49,0.42,0.46,0.5,0.51,0.55,0.48,0.52,0.58,0.62,0.71,0.69,0.74,0.67,0.75,0.78,0.81,0.79,0.86,0.9,0.87,0.8,0.78,0.84,0.96,0.91,0.73,0.54,0.38,0.22,0.1,0.04,0	90.5%