NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	101		Excitement	10.5 [42]		MVP	Chris Bosh (MIA): +13.3%
Milwaukee Bucks	95		Comeback	4.2 [438]		LVP	LeBron James (MIA): -41.9%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Bosh	0.13	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.09,-0.09,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.18,0.13,0.13	-0.04	0.16	-0.01	16	44%	0.23	2	-0.10	4	100%	0.08
Erick Dampier	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.00	0.06	-0.00	3	50%	0.07	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
James Jones	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.05	0.00	-0.00	3	86%	0.06	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Juwan Howard	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.01	0.02	-0.01	5	54%	0.07	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.02
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	-0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	4	60%	0.03	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Carlos Arroyo	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.16,-0.16,-0.09,-0.04	0.02	-0.06	-0.01	11	62%	0.02	3	-0.06	2	100%	0.02
Mario Chalmers	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	0.01	-0.06	0.00	5	70%	0.03	2	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.11,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.12	0.02	-0.00	19	31%	-0.08	1	-0.02	7	86%	-0.04
LeBron James	-0.42	0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.11,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.37,-0.31,-0.38,-0.38,-0.38,-0.42	-0.09	-0.28	0.04	23	46%	-0.16	5	-0.26	11	82%	-0.01

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ersan Ilyasova	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07	0.07	0.02	0.05	0.00	8	50%	0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Chris Douglas-Roberts	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.21,0.21,0.25,0.19,0.18,0.29,0.29,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.21,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.14	-0.06	0.01	19	68%	0.16	2	-0.10	6	67%	-0.17
Earl Boykins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.11,0.17,0.05	0.05	-0.07	0.11	-0.01	11	54%	0.26	5	-0.22	4	100%	0.03
Larry Sanders	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jon Brockman	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luc Mbah a Moute	0,0,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	0.00	7	71%	0.05	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Corey Maggette	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	0.00	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Keyon Dooling	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.09	-0.03	0.00	4	37%	-0.01	4	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
John Salmons	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04,-0.14,-0.23,-0.36,-0.36	-0.36	-0.03	-0.32	0.00	12	54%	0.04	4	-0.40	4	75%	0.00
Andrew Bogut	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.21,-0.33,-0.33,-0.4,-0.4,-0.4,-0.4,-0.4,-0.4	-0.40	-0.21	-0.22	-0.02	17	29%	-0.21	4	-0.19	8	50%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	27.9	2.5	29.5	16.3	25.5	2.6	41.2	1.6	13.2	160.4
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	1.9	16.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL -38.8%

MIA +31.1%

MIA +4.6%

MIA +48.8%

MIA +4.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	MIL	NBA	MIA	MIL	NBA
this game	14.5	15.9	15.5	97.1	90.5	105.7
season	16.0	16.2		109.0	100.1
opponent	15.4	15.6		100.9	102.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
MIA	13.2	15.3	15.2	13.4	16.7	14.5
MIL	16.8	13.5	14.8	18.5	16.7	15.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Carlos Arroyo	73	72	0.76	-0.26	1.01	0.58	6	0	6	14.2	15.3	-1.07	15.6	16.6	-0.96
Chris Bosh	70	73	0.45	0.05	0.41	0.22	8	-2	10	14.5	14.6	-0.12	16.7	14.1	2.62
LeBron James	88	90	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.22	7	-1	8	14.5	14.5	0.01	15.9	16.2	-0.33
Dwyane Wade	86	88	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.35	1	5	-4	14.4	15.1	-0.66	16.0	15.6	0.32
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	52	54	0.37	0.13	0.25	0.20	6	0	6	14.1	15.0	-0.90	15.5	16.4	-0.89
James Jones	34	32	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.02	4	2	2	14.8	14.4	0.42	15.9	15.9	-0.01
Juwan Howard	34	32	0.05	0.45	-0.41	0.11	-2	8	-10	14.6	14.5	0.12	14.1	16.7	-2.62
Mario Chalmers	31	33	-0.26	0.76	-1.01	-0.26	0	6	-6	15.3	14.2	1.07	16.6	15.6	0.96
Erick Dampier	43	42	-0.33	0.83	-1.15	-0.15	-6	12	-18	14.6	14.4	0.16	16.3	15.7	0.66

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ersan Ilyasova	42	44	0.20	-0.70	0.89	0.28	-3	-3	0	19.2	13.7	5.50	14.0	14.9	-0.96
Jon Brockman	21	19	0.17	-0.67	0.84	0.08	3	-9	12	14.6	16.2	-1.68	14.5	14.5	-0.04
Keyon Dooling	52	50	0.00	-0.50	0.51	-0.05	2	-8	10	15.0	16.8	-1.81	15.1	13.9	1.18
Larry Sanders	8	7	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	0.05	-4	-2	-2	10.1	16.4	-6.27	15.9	14.4	1.44
Corey Maggette	13	13	-0.19	-0.31	0.13	0.11	-10	4	-14	17.0	15.8	1.24	13.8	14.6	-0.85
Luc Mbah a Moute	84	81	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.25	2	-8	10	15.8	16.4	-0.58	14.6	14.2	0.38
Chris Douglas-Roberts	82	80	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	-0.40	4	-10	14	15.5	17.5	-2.00	14.9	13.2	1.64
Earl Boykins	51	53	-0.62	0.12	-0.74	-0.44	-6	0	-6	17.0	14.9	2.15	14.2	14.8	-0.65
Andrew Bogut	93	94	-0.68	0.18	-0.86	-0.47	-7	1	-8	16.1	14.7	1.31	14.5	14.5	0.01
John Salmons	79	79	-0.84	0.34	-1.18	-0.52	-11	5	-16	15.2	18.0	-2.82	14.2	15.5	-1.33

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.53,0.52,0.48,0.38,0.39,0.41,0.4,0.34,0.3,0.26,0.24,0.24,0.25,0.17,0.29,0.28,0.17,0.13,0.18,0.25,0.22,0.3,0.23,0.31,0.33,0.25,0.29,0.42,0.41,0.38,0.37,0.44,0.48,0.38,0.3,0.29,0.28,0.29,0.47,0.71,0.73,0.81,0.79,0.77,0.27,0.46,0.46,0.55,0.22,0.15,0
Game		Similarity Score
CHA 94, WAS 88	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.43,0.38,0.34,0.35,0.31,0.31,0.27,0.23,0.22,0.23,0.17,0.2,0.23,0.14,0.17,0.13,0.1,0.09,0.13,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.19,0.31,0.33,0.36,0.45,0.38,0.35,0.4,0.37,0.36,0.32,0.3,0.34,0.38,0.34,0.37,0.36,0.4,0.53,0.55,0.79,0.47,0.28,0.46,0.55,0.45,0.17,0.02,0	89.2%
DAL 129, SAC 123	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.5,0.51,0.48,0.43,0.36,0.41,0.37,0.34,0.36,0.3,0.36,0.3,0.36,0.27,0.42,0.34,0.32,0.39,0.42,0.46,0.46,0.42,0.37,0.37,0.22,0.3,0.39,0.32,0.31,0.27,0.34,0.3,0.36,0.34,0.22,0.25,0.24,0.23,0.47,0.76,0.78,0.69,0.64,0.45,0.42,0.46,0.48,0.54,0.55,0.09,0	88.4%
DET 102, MIA 100	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.43,0.4,0.36,0.28,0.3,0.29,0.27,0.25,0.26,0.26,0.29,0.29,0.36,0.25,0.27,0.3,0.35,0.25,0.3,0.33,0.42,0.42,0.38,0.31,0.41,0.44,0.44,0.26,0.22,0.22,0.24,0.28,0.36,0.4,0.6,0.45,0.63,0.33,0.27,0.46,0.45,0.28,0.15,0.17,0	88.3%