NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Washington Wizards	80		Excitement	4.4 [974]		MVP	Manu Ginobili (SAS): +17.9%
San Antonio Spurs	94		Comeback	1.4 [1280]		LVP	Tim Duncan (SAS): -12.3%

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rashard Lewis	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.07	0.00	-0.03	19	54%	0.10	1	-0.00	1	100%	0.00
Kirk Hinrich	0.00	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0	0.03	-0.02	-0.00	10	75%	0.11	4	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Seraphin	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lester Hudson	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Al Thornton	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.00	-0.01	0.02	10	50%	-0.03	1	-0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Josh Howard	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	-0.01	-0.02	12	39%	-0.01	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.01
Hilton Armstrong	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.00	-0.03	0.01	5	43%	-0.04	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Trevor Booker	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Nick Young	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.09,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.16	0.00	-0.09	19	26%	-0.07	2	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
John Wall	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.15	-0.01	-0.07	9	22%	-0.00	4	-0.10	0	0%	0.00

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Manu Ginobili	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.16	0.03	0.01	13	81%	0.19	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
George Hill	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.10	0.02	0.01	3	110%	0.12	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.01
Matt Bonner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.04	0.02	-0.04	8	56%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.05	-0.00	-0.03	15	61%	0.13	3	-0.07	3	100%	0.02
Richard Jefferson	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.01	0.01	-0.03	5	50%	0.04	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ime Udoka	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.02	3	33%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Quinn	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	0.00	0.02	0	100%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Tiago Splitter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.07	0.00	-0.07	2	0%	-0.00	2	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gary Neal	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.01	10	43%	-0.01	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
DeJuan Blair	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.01	-0.01	11	36%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antonio McDyess	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.01	-0.01	3	33%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.11	-0.03	-0.01	9	25%	-0.07	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.2	2.4	24.5	15.5	24.3	2.4	27.6	118.1
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +44.8%

SAS +1.1%

WAS -3.6%

SAS +5.7%

SAS +1.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	WAS	SAS	NBA	WAS	SAS	NBA
this game	16.2	15.1	15.5	87.0	102.2	105.7
season	15.1	15.5		100.9	109.3
opponent	15.2	15.2		103.6	108.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
WAS	17.3	15.9	16.4	15.3	16.2
SAS	17.0	15.4	12.9	15.3	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Lester Hudson	3	3	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.00	0	-14	14	11.7	16.4	-4.70	13.3	15.1	-1.81
Al Thornton	55	57	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	0.00	-6	-8	2	15.7	17.0	-1.26	14.4	16.1	-1.70
Hilton Armstrong	54	53	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	-0.06	-4	-10	6	17.5	14.4	3.11	15.2	14.9	0.33
Trevor Booker	30	29	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.03	-6	-8	2	15.2	16.7	-1.51	15.1	15.1	0.02
John Wall	37	37	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	0.03	-8	-6	-2	15.6	16.6	-1.00	15.2	15.0	0.17
Nick Young	70	70	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	-0.01	-7	-7	0	16.5	15.5	1.00	14.9	15.6	-0.66
Kevin Seraphin	17	17	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	-0.02	-10	-4	-6	14.5	16.6	-2.07	15.4	15.0	0.40
Rashard Lewis	82	82	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.11	-8	-6	-2	16.2	16.7	-0.54	15.2	14.5	0.66
Kirk Hinrich	68	69	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	-0.12	-9	-5	-4	16.5	15.5	0.91	15.1	15.0	0.06
Josh Howard	44	43	-0.48	-0.02	-0.47	-0.13	-12	-2	-10	16.8	15.7	1.11	15.8	14.5	1.28

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Matt Bonner	54	54	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.03	18	-4	22	15.1	15.1	0.06	16.1	16.3	-0.21
Tony Parker	69	70	0.49	0.01	0.49	0.02	16	-2	18	14.7	16.2	-1.45	16.4	15.5	0.94
Gary Neal	45	46	0.33	0.17	0.16	-0.02	12	2	10	15.5	14.7	0.87	15.7	16.7	-0.96
George Hill	31	31	0.31	0.19	0.11	0.13	6	8	-2	14.8	15.2	-0.42	16.2	16.2	-0.04
Tim Duncan	48	48	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.06	5	9	-4	14.7	15.5	-0.79	16.7	15.6	1.11
Richard Jefferson	63	61	0.19	0.31	-0.11	0.05	5	9	-4	14.7	16.0	-1.38	16.0	16.7	-0.74
DeJuan Blair	40	42	0.18	0.32	-0.13	-0.02	7	7	0	15.6	14.7	0.95	17.7	15.0	2.75
Ime Udoka	21	20	0.13	0.37	-0.24	-0.01	5	9	-4	15.8	14.9	0.87	15.9	16.3	-0.34
Antonio McDyess	16	16	0.12	0.38	-0.25	-0.02	5	9	-4	16.2	14.8	1.41	15.9	16.3	-0.41
Manu Ginobili	54	54	0.07	0.43	-0.35	0.10	-1	15	-16	15.5	14.5	0.96	16.8	15.4	1.36
Tiago Splitter	11	11	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.12	-4	18	-22	13.6	15.3	-1.65	12.2	16.8	-4.58
Chris Quinn	8	7	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	0.01	-4	18	-22	14.9	15.1	-0.23	11.0	16.6	-5.65

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.44,0.52,0.53,0.47,0.53,0.55,0.51,0.53,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.65,0.67,0.66,0.71,0.76,0.77,0.77,0.75,0.67,0.59,0.6,0.64,0.67,0.64,0.71,0.71,0.84,0.83,0.87,0.94,0.97,0.98,0.95,0.93,0.97,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
GSW 90, MEM 108	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.5,0.48,0.5,0.51,0.43,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.57,0.56,0.62,0.67,0.67,0.69,0.68,0.66,0.73,0.82,0.75,0.7,0.58,0.55,0.54,0.64,0.64,0.58,0.68,0.75,0.86,0.89,0.9,0.92,0.94,0.97,0.96,0.95,0.99,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.0%
ORL 94, BOS 113	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.5,0.46,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.68,0.73,0.63,0.68,0.77,0.76,0.79,0.72,0.73,0.73,0.6,0.6,0.64,0.67,0.71,0.71,0.71,0.84,0.77,0.83,0.85,0.85,0.93,0.94,0.95,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.9%
CLE 107, DAL 124	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.49,0.53,0.58,0.49,0.47,0.53,0.55,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.58,0.58,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.61,0.7,0.8,0.74,0.8,0.7,0.7,0.66,0.63,0.63,0.61,0.58,0.71,0.81,0.78,0.8,0.89,0.93,0.96,0.91,0.92,0.97,1,0.99,0.97,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.5%