NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	78		Excitement	7.3 [369]		MVP	Kevin Garnett (BOS): +25.4%
Orlando Magic	86		Comeback	11.2 [146]		LVP	Paul Pierce (BOS): -21.0%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Garnett	0.25	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.24,0.29,0.27,0.25,0.25	0.12	0.12	-0.01	14	69%	0.25	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.06
Avery Bradley	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Glen Davis	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.09,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	0.01	12	50%	0.05	2	-0.06	8	100%	0.05
Shaquille O'Neal	-0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.05	0.03	-0.01	3	33%	0.03	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jermaine O'Neal	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	4	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marquis Daniels	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.02	-0.00	6	17%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nate Robinson	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08	-0.14	0.02	-0.05	15	22%	-0.07	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.02
Ray Allen	-0.13	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13	-0.10	-0.05	-0.02	13	31%	-0.12	1	-0.01	3	67%	-0.00
Paul Pierce	-0.21	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.1,-0.21,-0.21	-0.03	-0.19	-0.01	14	56%	-0.07	5	-0.14	4	100%	0.02

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brandon Bass	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.06	0.11	-0.02	15	58%	0.20	1	-0.01	6	83%	0.02
JJ Redick	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.17	0.17	0.08	0.10	0.00	7	73%	0.17	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Jameer Nelson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.19,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.09,0.15,0.16	0.16	-0.08	0.24	-0.01	9	55%	0.30	6	-0.13	4	100%	0.01
Hedo Turkoglu	0,0,0,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.14	0.03	0.01	10	80%	0.16	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	9	42%	-0.02	1	-0.03	6	83%	0.01
Jason Richardson	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.08	0.00	-0.02	8	31%	-0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Dwight Howard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.11	-0.02	0.01	4	33%	-0.01	4	-0.13	10	40%	-0.09
Gilbert Arenas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.11	-0.07	-0.00	9	25%	-0.13	2	-0.04	2	0%	-0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.3	3.5	36.2	18.8	29.2	3.7	39.5	159.1
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +82.4%

BOS -14.6%

BOS -16.9%

BOS -0.9%

ORL +0.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	ORL	NBA	BOS	ORL	NBA
this game	16.4	14.0	15.5	81.2	92.5	105.7
season	15.7	15.2		104.8	106.3
opponent	16.2	15.8		101.1	99.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	16.2	15.0	15.7	19.2	16.4
ORL	13.1	12.6	16.4	14.4	14.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Marquis Daniels	38	38	0.28	-0.78	1.05	0.13	5	-13	18	16.1	16.6	-0.47	13.0	14.7	-1.73
Avery Bradley	11	11	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	-0.01	-3	-5	2	16.0	16.5	-0.47	13.6	14.1	-0.44
Jermaine O'Neal	20	21	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	0.05	-5	-3	-2	16.3	16.4	-0.15	13.4	14.2	-0.77
Shaquille O'Neal	25	23	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	0.19	-13	5	-18	18.7	15.6	3.11	13.5	14.2	-0.66
Glen Davis	79	78	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	-0.42	3	-11	14	15.8	19.4	-3.57	13.9	14.8	-0.93
Kevin Garnett	68	64	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.35	-1	-7	6	16.3	16.6	-0.27	14.6	12.8	1.79
Nate Robinson	85	82	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	-0.26	-5	-3	-2	16.5	16.0	0.47	14.1	13.6	0.44
Ray Allen	75	71	-0.60	0.10	-0.70	-0.25	-12	4	-16	16.9	14.8	2.06	14.1	13.8	0.33
Paul Pierce	79	77	-0.68	0.18	-0.86	-0.41	-9	1	-10	16.1	17.8	-1.64	14.5	11.9	2.52

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Hedo Turkoglu	63	68	1.03	-0.53	1.56	0.15	30	-22	52	13.7	14.8	-1.15	16.6	15.9	0.74
Brandon Bass	70	73	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.35	9	-1	10	14.7	12.1	2.57	16.0	17.7	-1.62
Dwight Howard	65	66	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.31	9	-1	10	13.7	14.7	-1.04	17.2	14.8	2.35
JJ Redick	60	59	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.39	5	3	2	13.6	14.7	-1.05	16.5	16.2	0.33
Jameer Nelson	54	57	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.37	5	3	2	14.5	13.3	1.23	15.9	17.2	-1.33
Ryan Anderson	49	49	-0.16	0.66	-0.82	-0.10	-2	10	-12	13.7	14.4	-0.69	16.3	16.5	-0.23
Jason Richardson	55	58	-0.30	0.80	-1.09	-0.03	-9	17	-26	14.6	13.2	1.42	16.3	16.5	-0.18
Gilbert Arenas	49	50	-0.31	0.81	-1.12	-0.10	-7	15	-22	13.6	14.5	-0.95	16.4	16.5	-0.08

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.61,0.68,0.67,0.68,0.66,0.64,0.57,0.57,0.47,0.56,0.48,0.45,0.44,0.47,0.5,0.54,0.56,0.52,0.46,0.42,0.31,0.27,0.22,0.19,0.18,0.22,0.22,0.27,0.32,0.32,0.19,0.17,0.23,0.27,0.26,0.3,0.25,0.24,0.19,0.08,0.2,0.13,0.15,0.1,0.33,0.85,1
Game		Similarity Score
MEM 92, CHI 95	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.54,0.55,0.47,0.43,0.47,0.49,0.42,0.38,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.4,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.31,0.31,0.36,0.33,0.33,0.26,0.23,0.2,0.17,0.21,0.26,0.25,0.22,0.17,0.19,0.25,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.17,0.15,0.18,0.24,0.27,0.15,0.37,0.33,0.73,1	90.0%
IND 106, DAL 109	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.51,0.5,0.55,0.57,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.44,0.35,0.35,0.41,0.39,0.42,0.39,0.44,0.3,0.19,0.21,0.18,0.22,0.24,0.24,0.22,0.22,0.31,0.19,0.18,0.26,0.26,0.38,0.47,0.42,0.21,0.24,0.13,0.1,0.21,0.43,0.91,1	89.9%
NJN 88, CHH 91	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.6,0.6,0.57,0.6,0.6,0.61,0.65,0.63,0.55,0.56,0.57,0.52,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.61,0.59,0.54,0.46,0.42,0.33,0.27,0.34,0.23,0.15,0.17,0.14,0.26,0.29,0.38,0.37,0.37,0.36,0.46,0.43,0.29,0.29,0.12,0.06,0.03,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.42,1	89.1%