NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	103		Excitement	7.8 [277]		MVP	Gary Neal (SAS): +34.4%
San Antonio Spurs	109		Comeback	6.0 [405]		LVP	Tony Parker (SAS): -31.2%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ty Lawson	0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.19,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.27,0.19,0.19,0.18	0.12	0.06	-0.00	12	76%	0.23	2	-0.05	5	80%	0.03
J.R. Smith	0.06	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.21,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	-0.03	-0.02	18	58%	0.15	2	-0.10	2	100%	0.01
Kenyon Martin	0.05	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.06	0.01	0.02	5	80%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nene	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01	0.03	-0.01	0.01	7	59%	0.04	1	-0.03	8	62%	-0.02
Gary Forbes	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chauncey Billups	-0.07	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.14,0.08,0.08,0.08,-0.07,-0.07	0.03	-0.10	0.01	11	59%	0.06	4	-0.13	12	100%	0.09
Chris Andersen	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	6	33%	-0.05	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Arron Afflalo	-0.10	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.01	-0.15	-0.06	11	50%	0.01	2	-0.12	2	100%	0.03
Al Harrington	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.08	-0.03	-0.00	6	17%	-0.08	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gary Neal	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.16,0.22,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.32,0.34	0.34	0.17	0.18	0.00	12	81%	0.41	1	-0.07	3	100%	0.04
Matt Bonner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.22	0.11	0.11	0.00	5	87%	0.24	1	-0.02	5	40%	-0.02
Manu Ginobili	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.17,0.17,0.18	0.18	0.10	0.11	0.04	15	58%	0.18	0	0.00	8	75%	0.01
Tiago Splitter	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.06	0.06	0.00	7	86%	0.18	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Richard Jefferson	0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.04	-0.03	-0.01	12	67%	0.15	3	-0.14	0	0%	0.00
Antonio McDyess	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeJuan Blair	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Quinn	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ime Udoka	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.03	-0.08	-0.01	7	50%	0.04	2	-0.14	4	75%	0.01
Tony Parker	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.23,-0.31,-0.31,-0.31,-0.31	-0.31	-0.13	-0.16	0.02	13	37%	-0.14	4	-0.17	4	25%	-0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.0	1.8	27.3	15.6	27.1	2.5	32.6	132.0
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +87.8%

DEN -22.0%

DEN -5.4%

DEN -10.2%

DEN -0.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	SAS	NBA	DEN	SAS	NBA
this game	15.4	16.0	15.5	113.2	118.5	105.7
season	14.3	15.5		110.7	109.3
opponent	15.2	15.5		103.6	106.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	15.0	15.5	13.3	18.1	15.4
SAS	16.3	15.2	18.9	14.0	16.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kenyon Martin	33	32	0.23	-0.73	0.97	-0.03	9	-15	24	14.8	15.8	-1.05	16.9	15.6	1.27
Gary Forbes	13	13	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.01	-3	-3	0	13.8	15.7	-1.94	16.7	15.9	0.76
Nene	59	62	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.30	4	-10	14	15.5	15.2	0.32	15.5	17.2	-1.77
Chauncey Billups	71	71	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	-0.29	3	-9	12	15.4	15.6	-0.28	15.4	18.2	-2.78
Chris Andersen	36	34	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	0.02	-11	5	-16	15.4	15.5	-0.11	16.9	15.6	1.28
J.R. Smith	74	74	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.24	-2	-4	2	15.3	15.9	-0.63	16.1	15.9	0.12
Al Harrington	42	44	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	-0.06	-10	4	-14	15.8	15.1	0.71	17.2	15.0	2.18
Arron Afflalo	75	76	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.38	-6	0	-6	15.7	13.9	1.81	15.7	17.9	-2.22
Ty Lawson	52	54	-0.73	0.23	-0.97	-0.32	-14	8	-22	15.7	15.1	0.57	16.0	16.2	-0.19

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Manu Ginobili	70	69	0.78	-0.28	1.06	0.37	14	-8	22	15.2	18.7	-3.47	16.0	13.8	2.18
Gary Neal	49	48	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.24	13	-7	20	16.2	15.8	0.39	15.9	15.0	0.90
Chris Quinn	22	21	0.54	-0.04	0.57	0.13	14	-8	22	16.6	15.9	0.72	17.3	14.9	2.41
Matt Bonner	48	48	0.43	0.07	0.35	0.10	11	-5	16	16.6	15.5	1.09	15.6	15.3	0.33
Tiago Splitter	37	37	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.02	6	0	6	17.5	15.1	2.46	16.8	14.5	2.28
Tim Duncan	54	53	0.17	0.33	-0.15	0.29	-4	10	-14	15.2	17.3	-2.08	15.1	15.9	-0.80
Antonio McDyess	6	6	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.03	1	5	-4	12.3	16.3	-3.97	17.0	15.3	1.68
Ime Udoka	1	1	-0.03	0.53	-0.55	0.03	-2	8	-10	26.0	15.9	10.07	0.0	15.6	-15.60
Richard Jefferson	70	70	-0.04	0.54	-0.57	0.20	-8	14	-22	15.9	16.6	-0.72	14.9	17.3	-2.41
Tony Parker	70	70	-0.04	0.54	-0.57	0.20	-8	14	-22	15.9	16.6	-0.72	14.9	17.3	-2.41
DeJuan Blair	33	32	-0.14	0.64	-0.78	0.07	-7	13	-20	17.3	15.4	1.92	13.8	16.3	-2.49

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.45,0.48,0.49,0.5,0.56,0.59,0.57,0.57,0.47,0.51,0.56,0.48,0.51,0.56,0.55,0.6,0.58,0.61,0.61,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.48,0.42,0.45,0.39,0.39,0.45,0.34,0.34,0.37,0.25,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.24,0.42,0.36,0.54,0.6,0.45,0.29,0.69,0.96,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 108, UTA 114	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.54,0.51,0.57,0.66,0.68,0.6,0.59,0.62,0.57,0.56,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.39,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.51,0.45,0.52,0.45,0.35,0.31,0.31,0.3,0.28,0.26,0.26,0.29,0.46,0.42,0.36,0.53,0.47,0.47,0.46,0.55,0.85,1	91.3%
NJN 94, PHI 97	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.52,0.56,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.45,0.46,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.44,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.59,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.6,0.55,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.39,0.29,0.31,0.24,0.3,0.29,0.3,0.26,0.34,0.29,0.28,0.36,0.41,0.54,0.55,0.63,0.78,0.87,1	91.0%
MEM 80, DEN 87	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.6,0.58,0.57,0.53,0.55,0.51,0.55,0.6,0.63,0.62,0.58,0.55,0.58,0.56,0.56,0.64,0.64,0.66,0.7,0.59,0.5,0.45,0.4,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.29,0.32,0.21,0.21,0.19,0.15,0.19,0.26,0.38,0.42,0.42,0.53,0.65,0.66,0.53,0.45,0.67,0.91,1	90.7%